Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21582
 
In CA-21, Incumbent Republican Valadao Well Positioned Against Democratic Challenger Renteria:

8 weeks to Election Day, in California's 21st US Congressional District, incumbent Republican David Valadao has built a strong coalition and would appear to be a favorite to hold onto his seat, according to a KFSN-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

In an election today, 09/09/14, it's Valadao 56%, Renteria 37%. Valadao's support is older. He leads by more than 2:1 among seniors. Renteria's support is younger. She leads 2:1 among the youngest voters. Every younger voter who turns out on Election Day helps the challenger. Valadao leads by 25 points among men and by 14 points among women.

Latino voters split, 47% for Renteria, 46% for Valadao. Valadao's entire lead comes from white voters, where he leads 5:1. Asian American voters split.

Valadao holds 94% of the Republican base. Renteria holds just 63% of the Democratic base. 30% of Democrats cross-over and vote Republican. Independents break for the Republican by 21 points. Moderates split. Lower-income voters split, but middle-income and upper-income voters break 2:1 Republican.

* Valadao is seen as more trustworthy, 48% to 28%.
* Valadao better reflects voters' views on the water crisis, 50% to 29%.
* Valadao better reflects voters' views on immigration, 44% to 31%.
* Valadao better reflects voters' views on unemployment, 48% to 28%.

This research conducted 100% by telephone; live operators used to contact cell-phone respondents: SurveyUSA interviewed 600 registered voters from California's 21st Congressional District 09/03/14 through 09/08/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS, also known as: Voter List Sample) provided by Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 439 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were interviewed by live operators, who hand-dialed cell phones, secured the respondent's cooperation, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview and remained on the line until the completion of the call. You must credit KFSN-TV, the ABC-owned station in Fresno, if you publish, broadcast, or cite these results in whole or part.

 
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from California's 21st Congressional District were today, who would you vote for? Republican David Valadao? Or Democrat Amanda Renteria?
439 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
David Valadao (R)56%59%54%27%45%58%69%38%64%82%**46%43%94%30%48%80%47%19%51%56%64%46%64%66%46%59%
Amanda Renteria (D)37%34%40%59%39%36%31%46%33%15%**47%47%6%63%27%16%48%71%42%38%26%49%27%30%29%38%
Undecided7%7%7%14%17%6%0%16%3%3%**8%9%1%7%25%4%4%10%7%6%9%5%9%4%25%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%46%54%11%21%30%39%31%69%32%4%55%9%37%51%11%46%30%13%31%44%24%44%31%25%17%83%
 
Who is more trustworthy?
439 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
David Valadao (R)48%52%45%25%38%47%61%34%55%73%**37%39%82%23%48%71%39%19%42%47%58%38%57%56%34%52%
Amanda Renteria (D)28%26%29%56%32%24%21%40%22%12%**34%34%5%47%16%11%38%52%31%26%22%36%20%22%21%28%
Not Sure24%22%25%19%30%29%18%26%23%15%**28%27%13%30%36%18%24%29%27%27%20%26%23%23%45%20%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%46%54%11%21%30%39%31%69%32%4%55%9%37%51%11%46%30%13%31%44%24%44%31%25%17%83%
 
Who better reflects your views on the water crisis?
439 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
David Valadao (R)50%52%48%29%37%50%62%34%57%76%**38%42%84%25%48%73%41%16%49%48%56%44%54%58%34%54%
Amanda Renteria (D)29%27%30%50%34%24%23%40%24%10%**37%37%6%47%20%11%39%57%28%28%26%33%18%28%19%30%
Not Sure21%21%21%20%29%26%14%26%19%14%**24%21%9%28%32%16%20%27%23%24%17%22%27%14%47%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%46%54%11%21%30%39%31%69%32%4%55%9%37%51%11%46%30%13%31%44%24%44%31%25%17%83%
 
Who better reflects your views on immigration?
439 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
David Valadao (R)44%50%39%27%32%49%52%30%51%68%**32%39%78%18%49%68%34%13%39%44%53%36%53%53%34%47%
Amanda Renteria (D)31%27%35%50%39%21%30%43%26%11%**41%33%4%56%11%12%43%63%37%29%28%37%26%28%25%31%
Not Sure25%23%26%23%29%30%18%27%23%21%**27%27%18%26%40%20%24%24%25%27%19%27%21%19%41%22%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%46%54%11%21%30%39%31%69%32%4%55%9%37%51%11%46%30%13%31%44%24%44%31%25%17%83%
 
Who better reflects your views on unemployment?
439 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
David Valadao (R)48%52%44%30%39%48%57%36%53%70%**38%40%80%24%50%70%41%16%42%48%56%37%58%57%41%50%
Amanda Renteria (D)28%26%30%44%32%21%28%36%25%12%**36%33%6%50%6%11%40%52%34%25%26%35%21%27%18%29%
Not Sure24%22%26%26%29%31%15%28%22%19%**26%27%14%26%43%19%19%32%24%27%18%28%21%16%41%21%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%46%54%11%21%30%39%31%69%32%4%55%9%37%51%11%46%30%13%31%44%24%44%31%25%17%83%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.