| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27377 |
| One Week Out, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris Dead Even in North Carolina, With 16 Critical Electoral Votes Hanging in the Balance:
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are deadlocked at 47% each, according to SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for WRAL-TV in Raleigh. 2% of likely voters say they will vote for another candidate; 4% are undecided. SurveyUSA's last poll for WRAL, conducted in September, had Harris at 49%, Trump at 46%. Today, Trump leads by 6 points among men; Harris leads by 7 points among women – a 13-point gender gap. Voters age 18 to 24 and those age 35 to 49 back Harris by 12 and 13 point margins respectively, while 25 to 34-year-olds give Trump a 10-point advantage. Those over age 50 prefer Trump by 4 points, 49% to 45%. White voters back Trump by a 29-point margin, while Harris leads by 69 points among Black voters, by 40 points among Latinos, and by 38 points among those of Asian or other descent. Breaking it down further, white men support Trump by a 34-point margin, white women by 24 points; Black men support Harris by a 62-point margin, Black women by 74 points. 38% of voters tell SurveyUSA they have already cast their ballots; among those voters, Harris leads by 3 points, 50% to 47%. Another 51% say they are certain they will vote; among those voters, Trump leads by 3 points, 48% to 45%. 1 in 10 voters say they will probably vote; among them, Harris leads by 9 points, with 15% of those likely-but-uncertain voters undecided. Among those voting by mail, 11% of the electorate, Harris has a 4-point advantage; among those voting early in person – 6 in 10 voters – the race is tied. Among those who say they will vote in-person on Election Day, Trump leads by 3 points. Trump leads by 90 points among those who say they are registered to vote as Republicans and by 91 points among those who say that regardless of how they are registered, they think of themselves as Republicans. Harris leads by 87 points among registered Democrats and by 94 points among those who think of themselves as Democrats – a 7-point difference that may be of concern to those attempting to prognosticate on the early vote based on the partisan registration of those returning ballots. Harris also leads by 11 points among those registered without a party affiliation, and by 4 points among those who say they think of themselves as independents. Voters who say they live in urban parts of the state back Harris by 38 points, 67% to 29%, with urban women supporting Harris by 43 points, urban men by 34. Suburban voters support Harris by a much more narrow 7 points, with a significant, 19-point gender gap: suburban men vote for Trump 48% to 46%, while suburban women go for Harris 55% to 38%. Rural voters prefer Trump by nearly 2:1, 61% to 32%, a 29-point margin; among rural men, 36 points; among rural women, 23. Voters in Western NC and the Charlotte area – combined in our regional breakdowns because of the small population in the western part of the state – narrowly prefer Harris, 47% to 44%. Those in the greater Raleigh area back Harris by a wider 14-point margin, 55% to 41%. Trump leads by 7 points in greater Greensboro and by 20 in Southern and Coastal NC. 1 in 5 North Carolina voters say they have been personally impacted by Hurricane Helene; among those voters, Trump leads by a nominal single point. Among those not impacted by the storm, Harris has the nominal 1-point advantage. Fully crosstabbed results follow ... |
| About the Research / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,050 North Carolina adults 10/23/24 through 10/26/24. Of the adults, 929 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 853 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election and were asked the substantive questions which follow. This research was conducted online, using nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to US Census ACS targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership, and to recalled 2020 presidential vote. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of North Carolina? |
| 1050 Adults | All | Gender | Age | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Race By Gender | Likely | Party Registration | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 Vote | Voting Method | Own Gun | Parent | Impacted By Hele | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Urbanicity By Gender | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | White Ma | White Fe | Black Ma | Black Fe | Already | Certain | Probable | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | Early in | Election | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Urban Me | Urban Wo | Suburban | Suburban | Rural Me | Rural Wo | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | ||
| Yes | 88% | 91% | 86% | 77% | 86% | 88% | 93% | 92% | 83% | 88% | 93% | 92% | 85% | 92% | 89% | 91% | 89% | 76% | 92% | 87% | 90% | 91% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 93% | 94% | 88% | 93% | 91% | 84% | 92% | 91% | 88% | 89% | 89% | 92% | 88% | 89% | 95% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 93% | 86% | 91% | 87% | 90% | 88% | 82% | 93% | 91% | 84% | 91% | 93% | 90% | 86% | 90% | 88% | 88% | 92% | 89% | 91% | 86% | 91% | 85% | 91% | 90% | 89% | 81% |
| No | 11% | 9% | 12% | 22% | 11% | 11% | 7% | 8% | 15% | 11% | 7% | 8% | 13% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 23% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 8% | - | - | - | 7% | 6% | 11% | 6% | 8% | 15% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 5% | 3% | - | - | - | 6% | 13% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 16% | 7% | 8% | 15% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 13% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 17% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 48% | 52% | 11% | 19% | 24% | 24% | 22% | 29% | 24% | 24% | 22% | 53% | 47% | 64% | 20% | 8% | 8% | 31% | 33% | 9% | 11% | 35% | 47% | 10% | 35% | 34% | 23% | 35% | 33% | 27% | 17% | 20% | 38% | 11% | 11% | 37% | 38% | 22% | 39% | 37% | 11% | 60% | 27% | 41% | 57% | 33% | 66% | 21% | 77% | 35% | 32% | 33% | 43% | 36% | 21% | 66% | 34% | 20% | 43% | 37% | 10% | 10% | 20% | 22% | 17% | 20% | 34% | 20% | 28% | 18% |
| 2 | North Carolina will vote to elect a U.S. president, a governor and other statewide officeholders in November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Which best describes you? |
| 929 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Race By Gender | Likely | Party Registration | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 Vote | Voting Method | Own Gun | Parent | Impacted By Hele | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Urbanicity By Gender | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | White Ma | White Fe | Black Ma | Black Fe | Already | Certain | Probable | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | Early in | Election | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Urban Me | Urban Wo | Suburban | Suburban | Rural Me | Rural Wo | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | ||
| Already Voted | 35% | 32% | 38% | 36% | 29% | 26% | 34% | 50% | 31% | 26% | 34% | 50% | 29% | 42% | 38% | 32% | 28% | 28% | 38% | 37% | 24% | 39% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 39% | 39% | 26% | 40% | 39% | 26% | 47% | 35% | 28% | 41% | 40% | 41% | 28% | 40% | 38% | 38% | 58% | 53% | 1% | 36% | 34% | 29% | 39% | 32% | 36% | 29% | 34% | 41% | 32% | 34% | 42% | 41% | 24% | 36% | 35% | 35% | 39% | 33% | 33% | 36% | 27% | 42% | 33% | 32% | 36% | 42% |
| Certain To Vote | 47% | 48% | 46% | 29% | 44% | 51% | 56% | 43% | 39% | 51% | 56% | 43% | 45% | 50% | 49% | 45% | 37% | 50% | 48% | 49% | 50% | 41% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 47% | 45% | 51% | 46% | 46% | 54% | 42% | 52% | 48% | 43% | 47% | 47% | 48% | 45% | 51% | 51% | 32% | 41% | 84% | 46% | 48% | 54% | 44% | 53% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 50% | 43% | 52% | 47% | 48% | 46% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 45% | 48% | 47% | 47% | 52% | 43% | 50% | 49% | 45% | 43% |
| Probably Vote | 10% | 11% | 9% | 21% | 12% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 13% | 6% | 7% | 11% | 16% | 20% | 7% | 7% | 15% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 6% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 7% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 15% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 11% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 10% | 14% | 7% | 7% |
| 50/50 Chance | 6% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 11% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 10% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 19% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 2% | - | - | - | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 11% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 10% | 6% |
| Probably Will Not | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | - | - | - | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 9% | 18% | 24% | 26% | 23% | 27% | 24% | 26% | 23% | 51% | 49% | 64% | 20% | 9% | 7% | 32% | 32% | 9% | 11% | 35% | 47% | 10% | 37% | 36% | 23% | 37% | 35% | 26% | 18% | 21% | 38% | 11% | 11% | 38% | 38% | 22% | 42% | 40% | 11% | 60% | 27% | 43% | 55% | 34% | 66% | 21% | 77% | 32% | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 22% | 67% | 33% | 21% | 43% | 37% | 11% | 10% | 21% | 22% | 18% | 19% | 34% | 21% | 28% | 17% |
 | If the November election for President were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? |
| 853 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Race By Gender | Likely | Party Registration | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 Vote | Voting Method | Own Gun | Parent | Impacted By Hele | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Urbanicity By Gender | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | White Ma | White Fe | Black Ma | Black Fe | Already | Certain | Probable | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | Early in | Election | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Urban Me | Urban Wo | Suburban | Suburban | Rural Me | Rural Wo | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | ||
| Donald Trump (R) | 47% | 50% | 43% | 38% | 51% | 41% | 49% | 49% | 47% | 41% | 49% | 49% | 44% | 49% | 62% | 13% | 27% | 20% | 65% | 59% | 17% | 10% | 47% | 48% | 37% | 94% | 5% | 36% | 95% | 2% | 39% | 79% | 71% | 40% | 11% | 9% | 74% | 40% | 10% | 93% | 6% | 45% | 48% | 47% | 57% | 39% | 46% | 47% | 45% | 47% | 54% | 47% | 40% | 43% | 54% | 42% | 52% | 36% | 29% | 43% | 61% | 32% | 26% | 48% | 38% | 64% | 58% | 44% | 51% | 41% | 57% |
| Kamala Harris (D) | 47% | 44% | 50% | 50% | 41% | 54% | 45% | 45% | 44% | 54% | 45% | 45% | 49% | 45% | 33% | 82% | 67% | 58% | 31% | 35% | 79% | 84% | 50% | 45% | 46% | 4% | 92% | 47% | 4% | 96% | 43% | 20% | 25% | 52% | 82% | 80% | 23% | 52% | 81% | 5% | 91% | 49% | 48% | 44% | 36% | 55% | 47% | 47% | 44% | 48% | 42% | 45% | 52% | 53% | 40% | 49% | 42% | 59% | 67% | 50% | 32% | 66% | 69% | 46% | 55% | 28% | 35% | 47% | 44% | 55% | 37% |
| Other | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Undecided | 4% | 4% | 5% | 11% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 15% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 15% | 1% | 3% | 12% | 1% | 2% | 12% | 1% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 9% | 17% | 23% | 27% | 25% | 26% | 23% | 27% | 25% | 48% | 52% | 66% | 20% | 8% | 7% | 33% | 33% | 9% | 11% | 38% | 51% | 10% | 38% | 36% | 21% | 38% | 36% | 26% | 18% | 21% | 36% | 11% | 11% | 40% | 36% | 23% | 43% | 42% | 11% | 60% | 27% | 44% | 55% | 34% | 66% | 21% | 78% | 30% | 33% | 36% | 39% | 38% | 24% | 70% | 30% | 21% | 42% | 37% | 11% | 10% | 21% | 22% | 17% | 19% | 35% | 21% | 27% | 17% |