Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26645
 
Maine Incumbent Democratic Governor Janet Mills 6 Points Atop Former Republican Governor Paul LePage in Bid for Re-Election;
ME-02 Incumbent Dem Golden Poised to Again Defeat Former GOP Representative Poliquin in Ranked-Choice Update of 2018 Contest:

Incumbent Governor Janet Mills defeats former Governor Paul LePage 49% to 43% today, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for FairVote and the Bangor Daily News. Independent Sam Hunkler takes 4% of the vote; 5% of likely voters are undecided.

LePage leads by 9 points among men; Mills leads among 20 points among women – a 29-point gender gap. LePage leads by 7 points among voters age 50-64; Mills leads by 10 among those over age 65, by 12 among 35 to 49 year-olds, and by 17 points among the youngest voters. 14% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they have already cast their ballots; Mills is leading by 45 points among these voters, 70% to 25%. The contest is effectively tied among the two-thirds of voters who say they are 100% certain they will vote, with Mills having a nominal 2-point advantage; among the 19% who say they probably will vote, LePage leads by 10 points. Mills leads by 30 points among voters with a college degree, by a nominal 2 points among those who have attended some college; LePage leads by 11 among those with a high school education. Mills leads by 13 points in the 1st Congressional District; the contest is tied in the 2nd District.

Had the contest instead been conducted using ranked-choice voting, Mills would have had 44% of first-round votes, LePage 39%; 9% would have gone to Hunkler; 8% would have been undecided. Disregarding the undecided votes, Mills would be at 48%, LePage at 42%, Hunkler at 10%. When Hunkler is eliminated, and his 2nd-choice votes examined, Mills defeats LePage 54% to 46%.

In the 2nd District, where (unlike in the race for Governor) ranked choice voting will be used, incumbent Democrat Jared Golden wins 43% of first-choice votes; former Republican US Representative Bruce Poliquin, who was unseated by Golden in 2018, takes 40%. 8% cast their first-round votes for independent Tiffany Bond; 9% are undecided. If undecided voters are disregarded, Golden has 47% of first-choice votes, Poliquin 43%, Bond 9%.

When Bond is eliminated, and her supporters' votes are re-allocated to their 2nd choice candidates, Golden defeats Poliquin, 54% to 46%.

In first-round votes, Golden leads by 13 points among women; Poliquin leads by 9 among men – a 22-point gender gap. Golden has a 10-point advantage among 18 to 34 year-olds, and single-digit leads of between 1 and 4 points among older voters. Among those who have already voted, 65% say they cast their first-round vote for Golden, 24% for Poliquin, 10% for Bond; among those certain to vote, 43% cast their first vote for Golden, 41% for Poliquin, 7% for bond. Among those who say they will probably vote, Poliquin has the advantage, taking 47% of first-round votes to 26% for Golden and 13% for Bond. 58% of those who have graduated college vote for Golden in the first round, 30% for Poliquin, 7% for Bond; those who have attended some college and those with high school educations prefer Poliquin.

Of those who do not make a 2nd-choice selection, 44% say they only like one candidate; 12% say they do not wish to harm their favorite candidate by ranking other choices; 8% believe their 1st choice will make it to the final round, making a backup choice unnecessary; 1% say they do not understand how it works. 6% say some other reason; 28% were respondents who ranked the same person in the same position twice.

Of those 2nd District voters who did rank two candidates, 54% say the process was very easy; 28% say easy. 8% call it hard; 7% say it was very hard.

Full results follow ...
 
About the Research / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,475 adults from the entire state of Maine 10/28/22 through 11/02/22. Of the adults, 1,254 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 1,116 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November 8 general election, or to have already cast their ballot. 544 of the likely voters resided in Maine's 2nd Congressional District and were asked the questions about the ME-02 contest. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (38% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer, using telephone sample of registered voters purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Respondents unreachable on a landline telephone (62% of likely voters) were shown the survey questions on the display of their smartphone, laptop or tablet, using online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to targets for gender, age, home ownership, and congressional district. In order to provide greater fidelity to their results, ME-02 respondents were oversampled for this project by approximately 12%, then re-weighted to their correct proportion of the state's voters.
 
1Are you registered to vote?
1475 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Likely VoterParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedTop IssueCD-2 1st ChoiceCD-2 2nd ChoiceGov 1st ChoiceGov 2nd ChoiceEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityCongressional DiType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct pointsManWomanOther18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Probably100% CerAlready RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalEconomyAbortionThreats Housing GoldenPoliquinBondGoldenPoliquinBondMillsLePageHunklerMillsLePageHunklerHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural1st Dist2nd DistOnlineTelephon
Yes85%86%84%**67%83%89%100%75%94%100%100%100%92%94%84%91%93%85%93%92%92%85%93%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%**100%76%88%95%75%90%92%92%67%84%84%85%88%82%78%100%
No13%12%14%**29%15%8%0%22%4%---7%6%14%9%6%13%7%6%7%13%6%----------------20%10%5%21%9%7%7%28%14%13%13%11%15%19%0%
Not Sure2%2%2%**3%2%3%0%3%2%---1%1%2%1%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%----------------4%1%0%4%2%0%1%5%2%3%2%1%3%3%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%47%52%1%24%23%28%24%47%53%17%59%13%30%29%32%10%21%37%13%7%31%37%21%47%12%20%5%43%40%8%10%5%37%44%39%9%6%5%35%43%28%29%39%34%27%72%28%15%28%56%48%52%69%31%
 
2A general election will be held on November 3rd in which Maine voters will vote for Senator and other offices. Which best describes you?
1254 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Likely VoterParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedTop IssueCD-2 1st ChoiceCD-2 2nd ChoiceGov 1st ChoiceGov 2nd ChoiceEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityCongressional DiType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsManWomanOther18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Probably100% CerAlready RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalEconomyAbortionThreats Housing GoldenPoliquinBondGoldenPoliquinBondMillsLePageHunklerMillsLePageHunklerHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural1st Dist2nd DistOnlineTelephon
Will Not Vote4%4%4%**6%5%1%6%5%3%0%0%0%3%3%6%5%5%4%2%3%5%4%2%----------------7%3%3%7%3%2%3%7%7%3%3%4%5%4%4%
Probably Will Not5%5%4%**10%7%2%2%8%2%0%0%0%4%4%4%1%3%5%7%1%2%5%5%----------------6%3%5%7%4%4%3%10%7%4%4%3%7%6%2%
Probably Will17%18%16%**21%21%14%13%21%14%100%0%0%19%12%20%22%17%20%13%10%19%20%12%22%12%9%30%12%23%29%27%21%18%15%22%20%22%**16%19%19%12%20%16%15%16%22%15%17%18%17%16%19%14%
100% Certain59%61%57%**51%54%64%64%53%64%0%100%0%62%60%57%64%66%55%58%63%66%55%59%67%73%68%51%65%68%53%64%70%63%66%70%61%66%**69%56%59%64%51%61%68%63%45%58%60%60%62%56%56%66%
Already Voted13%9%17%**6%9%17%16%8%16%0%0%100%10%20%10%8%8%13%19%24%8%13%21%12%16%23%19%24%9%18%9%10%19%20%8%19%12%**14%9%14%16%14%14%11%13%11%9%14%13%12%14%12%14%
Not Sure2%2%2%**6%3%1%0%4%0%0%0%0%2%1%3%0%1%2%1%0%1%2%1%----------------3%2%1%2%3%0%1%5%4%2%2%2%2%3%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%51%1%19%23%30%29%42%58%17%59%13%32%32%32%11%23%37%14%8%34%37%22%47%12%20%5%43%40%8%10%5%37%44%39%9%6%5%35%39%29%33%34%36%30%78%22%15%27%56%50%50%64%36%
 
3Do you live in Maine's 1st US Congressional District? Or Maine's 2nd US Congressional District? The 1st district includes the greater Portland area, along the coast to Camden, and up though Waterville. The 2nd congressional district includes Lewiston, Auburn, Augusta, Bangor, northern and rural parts of the state and Downeast.
1116 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Likely VoterParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedTop IssueCD-2 1st ChoiceCD-2 2nd ChoiceGov 1st ChoiceGov 2nd ChoiceEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityCongressional DiType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsManWomanOther18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Probably100% CerAlready RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalEconomyAbortionThreats Housing GoldenPoliquinBondGoldenPoliquinBondMillsLePageHunklerMillsLePageHunklerHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural1st Dist2nd DistOnlineTelephon
1st District51%54%49%**48%53%50%53%51%52%51%52%46%47%53%53%51%46%51%53%62%48%51%56%46%57%62%47%------55%50%43%51%**57%44%51%59%38%53%63%52%49%49%73%42%100%0%50%53%
2nd District49%46%51%**52%47%50%47%49%48%49%48%54%53%47%47%49%54%49%47%38%52%49%44%54%43%38%53%100%100%100%100%100%100%45%50%57%49%**43%56%49%41%62%47%37%48%51%51%27%58%0%100%50%47%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%51%1%17%22%32%30%39%61%19%67%14%33%33%31%12%23%37%15%9%35%37%23%47%12%20%5%43%40%8%10%5%37%44%39%9%6%5%35%37%29%34%32%36%31%81%19%14%28%57%51%49%62%38%
 
4Three candidates are running for U.S. House of Representatives for your congressional district. They are:
Democrat Jared Golden
Republican Bruce Poliquin
Independent Tiffany Bond
The congressional election will use ranked choice voting which allows voters to rank the candidates in order of preference.
If you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you select as your 1st choice for U.S. House of Representatives?
544 CD-2 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Likely VoterParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedTop IssueCD-2 1st ChoiceCD-2 2nd ChoiceGov 1st ChoiceGov 2nd ChoiceEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityCongressional DiType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct pointsManWomanOther18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Probably100% CerAlready RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalEconomyAbortionThreats Housing GoldenPoliquinBondGoldenPoliquinBondMillsLePageHunklerMillsLePageHunklerHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural1st Dist2nd DistOnlineTelephon
Jared Golden (D)43%37%48%**47%37%42%47%41%45%26%43%65%13%83%39%5%15%49%85%96%12%49%89%30%63%80%33%100%0%0%0%76%75%79%9%47%38%42%58%38%37%58%45%44%40%44%40%48%43%42%**43%42%46%
Bruce Poliquin (R)40%46%35%**37%36%39%43%37%41%47%41%24%77%7%29%86%72%26%4%3%76%26%4%51%22%13%35%0%100%0%55%0%25%6%78%30%31%45%28%41%45%30%36%42%42%38%45%41%44%38%**40%37%45%
Tiffany Bond (I)8%8%8%**7%16%5%7%12%6%13%7%10%5%5%15%6%4%12%8%1%5%12%6%9%8%6%23%0%0%100%45%24%0%11%3%18%25%11%10%8%10%7%9%8%8%8%9%7%9%9%**8%10%6%
Undecided9%9%9%**9%10%13%3%10%8%14%9%2%5%5%17%4%9%13%2%0%8%13%1%11%7%1%9%0%0%0%---4%10%5%6%3%3%13%8%4%11%6%11%10%5%4%4%11%**9%12%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%
Composition of CD-2 Likely Voters100%45%54%1%18%21%32%29%39%61%19%65%16%36%32%30%12%26%37%14%7%37%37%21%52%11%15%6%43%40%8%10%5%37%41%40%11%6%6%31%42%30%28%41%35%24%80%20%14%15%69%0%100%63%37%
 
5Who would you choose as your 2nd choice for U.S. House of Representatives?
496 CD-2 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Likely VoterParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedTop IssueCD-2 1st ChoiceCD-2 2nd ChoiceGov 1st ChoiceGov 2nd ChoiceEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityCongressional DiType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct pointsManWomanOther18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Probably100% CerAlready RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalEconomyAbortionThreats Housing GoldenPoliquinBondGoldenPoliquinBondMillsLePageHunklerMillsLePageHunklerHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural1st Dist2nd DistOnlineTelephon
Jared Golden (D)10%11%10%**9%21%7%8%15%7%16%10%6%11%5%16%7%14%13%7%3%12%13%6%11%9%7%19%0%13%51%100%0%0%10%10%13%23%18%16%12%12%7%12%8%12%9%16%9%15%10%**10%13%6%
Bruce Poliquin (R)5%3%6%**11%5%4%3%8%3%6%5%3%5%7%3%0%4%8%5%1%3%8%3%6%4%0%3%8%0%13%0%100%0%6%5%5%20%14%6%3%4%8%5%4%6%5%5%2%12%4%**5%7%2%
Tiffany Bond (I)37%42%32%**42%41%37%31%41%34%36%36%41%22%55%39%18%25%43%48%65%23%43%53%30%50%48%27%58%22%0%0%0%100%51%22%49%36%51%65%33%36%43%38%36%38%37%37%48%37%35%**37%38%36%
Don't Plan To43%38%48%**31%32%47%55%31%51%36%45%45%59%31%34%72%55%33%30%29%60%33%30%47%38%41%48%29%62%33%0%0%0%29%60%28%11%16%10%46%44%40%39%49%42%45%37%38%31%47%**43%37%54%
Undecided4%5%3%**7%2%4%3%5%4%6%3%5%3%3%8%3%2%3%11%2%2%3%8%6%0%3%3%5%3%3%0%0%0%4%2%5%10%2%3%6%4%2%5%4%2%3%5%2%5%3%**4%5%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%
Composition of CD-2 Likely Voters100%45%53%1%18%21%31%31%39%61%18%65%17%37%33%27%12%26%36%15%7%38%36%22%51%11%17%6%47%43%9%10%5%37%43%39%11%6%6%32%40%30%30%40%36%23%79%21%15%16%67%0%100%61%39%
 
6You indicated that you do not plan to rank a second choice for U.S. Congress? Which of the following is your primary reason for only ranking one candidate?

I only like one candidate
I do not want to harm my favorite candidate by ranking other choices
A candidate or campaign suggested that I should only rank one choice
I think my first choice will make it to the final round so I do not need a backup choice
I do not understand how ranking works
215 CD-2 Respondents Who Do Not Plan To Rank a 2nd ChoiceAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Likely VoterParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedTop IssueCD-2 1st ChoiceCD-2 2nd ChoiceGov 1st ChoiceGov 2nd ChoiceEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityCongressional DiType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 7.8 pct pointsManWomanOther18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Probably100% CerAlready RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalEconomyAbortionThreats Housing GoldenPoliquinBondGoldenPoliquinBondMillsLePageHunklerMillsLePageHunklerHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural1st Dist2nd DistOnlineTelephon
Only Like One Candidate44%44%45%**59%44%60%25%51%42%40%43%53%44%45%44%44%40%39%58%58%42%39%58%37%62%33%52%52%40%49%******44%42%45%****53%45%45%42%45%51%33%42%56%47%34%46%**44%64%22%
Don't Want To Harm Favorite12%10%14%**9%20%11%12%15%12%4%13%19%11%17%8%6%10%20%6%16%9%20%9%12%20%11%31%16%11%12%******17%10%17%****27%16%11%9%15%6%21%14%8%14%17%12%**12%15%10%
Candidate / Campaign Suggested Only One 0%0%1%**0%3%0%0%1%0%3%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%6%******0%0%5%****0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%**0%1%0%
First Choice Will Make Final Round8%7%9%**7%13%6%7%11%7%7%7%13%8%12%6%3%3%12%18%13%3%12%16%3%0%24%17%12%5%12%******12%3%22%****0%7%5%13%10%8%4%6%16%9%9%8%**8%10%6%
Don't Understand How It Works1%0%1%**4%0%0%2%2%1%0%2%0%1%0%0%0%2%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%8%0%0%2%1%0%******3%0%0%****0%3%0%0%2%1%0%0%7%4%0%0%**1%1%2%
Other6%10%4%**10%12%7%2%11%4%3%8%2%7%2%10%2%7%12%2%0%5%12%1%7%0%8%0%4%8%0%******4%7%6%****5%0%9%12%2%4%16%7%5%0%17%6%**6%10%3%
Ranked Same Twice28%29%27%**11%8%16%51%9%35%43%28%13%29%24%32%46%35%17%16%13%39%17%15%39%10%24%0%15%35%21%******21%38%5%****15%29%29%24%25%28%25%30%8%26%22%27%**28%0%58%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%
Composition of CD-2 Respondents Who Do Not Plan To Rank a 2nd Choice100%40%59%1%13%15%34%39%28%72%15%68%18%51%24%22%20%32%27%10%5%53%27%15%55%10%16%6%32%61%7%0%0%0%28%55%7%2%2%8%42%31%27%36%41%23%82%18%14%12%73%0%100%52%48%
 
7Would you describe the process you just went through --- of naming a 1st choice and then naming a 2nd choice --- as very easy? Easy? Hard? Or very hard?
340 Who Voted For Both a 1st And 2nd ChoiceAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Likely VoterParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedTop IssueCD-2 1st ChoiceCD-2 2nd ChoiceGov 1st ChoiceGov 2nd ChoiceEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityCongressional DiType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 6.1 pct pointsManWomanOther18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Probably100% CerAlready RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalEconomyAbortionThreats Housing GoldenPoliquinBondGoldenPoliquinBondMillsLePageHunklerMillsLePageHunklerHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural1st Dist2nd DistOnlineTelephon
Very Easy54%54%53%**38%45%58%65%42%62%57%53%53%44%65%52%35%51%49%68%72%46%49%69%47%59%82%**64%40%51%50%47%60%65%46%47%56%34%64%52%49%61%52%54%57%56%47%61%38%57%**54%44%66%
Easy28%26%30%**44%42%21%14%43%18%23%29%29%25%28%29%21%25%32%30%25%23%32%28%31%29%16%**27%27%33%38%29%28%27%25%28%25%30%26%28%30%25%27%30%26%26%36%21%33%28%**28%39%13%
Hard8%8%7%**8%4%13%5%6%9%9%7%10%12%5%7%16%10%9%0%4%12%9%1%10%4%0%**6%11%5%8%17%5%4%8%20%15%21%3%11%6%5%12%5%5%8%6%12%16%5%**8%10%4%
Very Hard7%8%7%**6%6%7%10%6%8%7%7%8%14%3%6%20%10%7%0%0%13%7%0%8%2%2%**0%16%10%3%2%6%3%15%4%0%12%6%6%10%7%4%9%7%7%7%5%10%6%**7%3%13%
Not Sure3%3%4%**5%2%1%6%3%4%4%4%0%5%0%6%8%4%4%1%0%6%4%1%5%6%0%**2%6%1%2%4%1%2%6%1%4%2%1%4%6%1%5%2%4%3%4%2%3%4%**3%3%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%
Composition of Who Voted For Both a 1st And 2nd Choice100%48%51%1%19%21%27%33%40%60%21%64%15%31%37%31%11%24%38%16%8%35%38%25%53%11%17%4%52%38%10%15%7%54%48%36%12%8%8%41%39%31%30%42%35%24%80%20%16%18%64%0%100%56%44%
 
8Do you agree or disagree with this statement:

It is important for Maine's members of Congress to understand "rural values."
544 CD-2 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Likely VoterParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedTop IssueCD-2 1st ChoiceCD-2 2nd ChoiceGov 1st ChoiceGov 2nd ChoiceEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityCongressional DiType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct pointsManWomanOther18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Probably100% CerAlready RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalEconomyAbortionThreats Housing GoldenPoliquinBondGoldenPoliquinBondMillsLePageHunklerMillsLePageHunklerHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural1st Dist2nd DistOnlineTelephon
Agree93%95%93%**88%91%94%97%90%95%96%91%97%96%92%92%98%96%93%91%83%97%93%89%96%91%91%96%90%97%94%96%92%90%91%97%91%84%100%92%97%93%88%93%91%95%93%92%92%85%95%**93%92%95%
Disagree2%3%2%**5%5%1%1%5%1%2%3%0%1%4%2%1%2%2%5%9%1%2%6%1%7%3%3%4%1%4%1%0%5%5%1%0%2%0%4%1%4%3%3%2%3%2%4%3%5%2%**2%3%1%
Not Sure4%2%5%**7%4%5%3%5%4%1%6%3%3%5%5%1%2%5%4%8%2%5%5%3%3%6%2%6%2%2%3%8%5%5%2%9%14%0%4%2%3%9%4%7%2%4%5%4%10%3%**4%5%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%
Composition of CD-2 Likely Voters100%45%54%1%18%21%32%29%39%61%19%65%16%36%32%30%12%26%37%14%7%37%37%21%52%11%15%6%43%40%8%10%5%37%41%40%11%6%6%31%42%30%28%41%35%24%80%20%14%15%69%0%100%63%37%
 
9There are three candidates running for governor of Maine. They are:
Democrat Janet Mills
Republican Paul LePage
Independent Sam Hunkler
The governor's race does not use ranked choice voting, so voters will only be able to select one candidate.
If you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for for governor?
1116 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Likely VoterParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedTop IssueCD-2 1st ChoiceCD-2 2nd ChoiceGov 1st ChoiceGov 2nd ChoiceEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityCongressional DiType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsManWomanOther18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Probably100% CerAlready RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalEconomyAbortionThreats Housing GoldenPoliquinBondGoldenPoliquinBondMillsLePageHunklerMillsLePageHunklerHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural1st Dist2nd DistOnlineTelephon
Janet Mills (D)49%41%56%**52%50%42%54%51%48%39%47%70%12%91%45%12%15%56%90%96%14%56%92%32%78%75%55%85%6%57%46%40%69%97%1%46%40%**65%40%46%62%55%48%45%48%53%52%57%44%52%46%48%50%
Paul LePage (R)43%50%36%**35%38%49%44%36%46%49%45%25%84%7%36%84%81%32%3%3%82%32%3%59%13%20%29%11%91%15%43%47%29%2%97%19%38%**32%51%44%32%35%45%47%44%36%41%34%47%39%46%40%46%
Sam Hunkler (I)4%4%4%**6%9%2%1%7%2%5%4%4%2%0%10%4%2%5%4%1%2%5%2%3%3%3%10%1%2%24%8%10%1%1%0%32%21%**1%4%5%3%5%3%3%3%6%4%4%4%4%4%5%2%
Undecided5%5%4%**8%4%7%1%5%4%7%4%2%2%1%9%1%3%6%3%0%2%6%2%6%5%3%6%2%1%4%3%3%1%1%2%3%1%**2%6%5%4%5%4%5%5%5%3%4%5%5%4%6%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%51%1%17%22%32%30%39%61%19%67%14%33%33%31%12%23%37%15%9%35%37%23%47%12%20%5%43%40%8%10%5%37%44%39%9%6%5%35%37%29%34%32%36%31%81%19%14%28%57%51%49%62%38%
 
10If the governor's election had ranked choice voting, you would have the option to rank your favorite candidate first, then rank a backup choice without worrying that your backup choice might hurt your first choice candidate. If the governor's election had ranked choice voting, who would you rank as your first choice?
1116 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Likely VoterParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedTop IssueCD-2 1st ChoiceCD-2 2nd ChoiceGov 1st ChoiceGov 2nd ChoiceEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityCongressional DiType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsManWomanOther18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Probably100% CerAlready RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalEconomyAbortionThreats Housing GoldenPoliquinBondGoldenPoliquinBondMillsLePageHunklerMillsLePageHunklerHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural1st Dist2nd DistOnlineTelephon
Janet Mills (D)44%35%52%**41%43%38%53%42%45%35%43%60%13%81%40%15%14%48%84%82%14%48%83%29%73%68%43%74%6%54%41%49%59%100%0%0%0%**66%37%42%52%49%43%40%43%45%48%50%40%47%41%41%49%
Paul LePage (R)39%46%33%**33%34%43%41%34%42%45%41%21%75%7%34%76%72%29%5%3%74%29%4%56%12%17%28%8%79%14%39%40%23%0%100%0%40%**34%44%42%30%31%40%45%41%28%32%33%44%37%40%35%45%
Sam Hunkler (I)9%11%8%**17%15%8%3%16%5%10%9%12%4%8%17%5%7%14%6%11%6%14%8%8%7%8%17%12%8%24%14%11%15%0%0%100%60%**0%8%10%10%12%8%8%8%17%10%10%9%8%11%13%3%
Undecided8%8%8%**10%8%11%3%9%7%10%8%7%7%4%10%4%6%10%5%3%6%10%4%8%7%7%12%6%7%9%5%0%3%0%0%0%---10%6%8%8%9%7%8%9%9%8%8%7%8%11%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%51%1%17%22%32%30%39%61%19%67%14%33%33%31%12%23%37%15%9%35%37%23%47%12%20%5%43%40%8%10%5%37%44%39%9%6%5%35%37%29%34%32%36%31%81%19%14%28%57%51%49%62%38%
 
11Who would you choose as your second choice for Governor?
1027 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Likely VoterParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedTop IssueCD-2 1st ChoiceCD-2 2nd ChoiceGov 1st ChoiceGov 2nd ChoiceEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityCongressional DiType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsManWomanOther18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Probably100% CerAlready RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalEconomyAbortionThreats Housing GoldenPoliquinBondGoldenPoliquinBondMillsLePageHunklerMillsLePageHunklerHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural1st Dist2nd DistOnlineTelephon
Janet Mills (D)6%7%6%**9%13%4%3%11%4%7%6%5%4%4%11%1%6%9%4%8%4%9%6%5%8%6%14%5%5%19%14%24%6%0%6%37%100%**0%5%8%7%8%7%4%6%9%7%6%7%6%6%8%4%
Paul LePage (R)5%5%4%**9%6%3%3%8%3%6%4%5%6%3%6%4%7%5%4%3%6%5%3%6%1%3%10%5%6%7%10%15%8%6%0%17%0%**0%7%5%3%5%4%5%4%7%12%5%3%4%6%6%2%
Sam Hunkler (I)35%38%33%**39%36%34%33%37%34%31%36%34%26%43%36%17%26%40%51%31%23%40%43%29%37%44%34%40%21%39%48%34%53%49%28%0%0%**100%35%31%39%30%33%42%35%32%32%40%33%39%31%34%37%
Don't Plan To Rank36%31%42%**34%37%45%29%36%37%33%35%46%41%38%30%40%39%33%35%45%40%33%39%37%44%33%34%37%42%24%22%24%23%34%40%30%0%**0%29%40%40%36%36%38%36%39%38%39%36%34%39%44%25%
Undecided5%7%4%**7%6%7%3%7%5%7%6%3%8%3%5%10%6%5%2%6%7%5%4%5%2%6%8%3%3%3%5%4%3%3%6%14%0%**0%9%4%3%8%6%3%5%9%3%6%6%7%4%8%2%
Ranked Same Twice12%13%11%**3%1%7%29%2%18%15%12%6%15%10%11%28%16%8%5%7%20%8%5%18%8%9%0%8%23%7%1%0%7%7%20%2%0%**0%15%13%8%13%14%7%14%3%9%4%16%10%14%0%30%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%52%1%16%22%31%31%38%62%18%67%15%33%35%30%12%23%36%15%9%36%36%24%47%12%20%5%44%40%8%11%5%39%48%42%10%6%5%35%36%30%34%32%36%32%81%19%14%28%58%52%48%61%39%
 
12Which of the following issues is most important for determining your vote? Economy? Abortion rights? Threats to democracy? Housing affordability? Crime? Education? Immigration? Or something else?
1116 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Likely VoterParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedTop IssueCD-2 1st ChoiceCD-2 2nd ChoiceGov 1st ChoiceGov 2nd ChoiceEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityCongressional DiType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsManWomanOther18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Probably100% CerAlready RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalEconomyAbortionThreats Housing GoldenPoliquinBondGoldenPoliquinBondMillsLePageHunklerMillsLePageHunklerHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural1st Dist2nd DistOnlineTelephon
Economy47%52%42%**41%44%52%45%43%49%54%47%37%65%27%49%62%65%44%25%20%64%44%23%100%0%0%0%36%67%53%56%59%41%30%67%40%38%**39%52%44%42%44%47%49%49%36%38%43%51%42%52%46%48%
Abortion Rights12%6%18%**21%16%7%11%18%9%8%13%13%6%22%10%6%5%13%19%33%5%13%25%0%100%0%0%16%6%10%10%8%15%20%4%10%16%**13%7%14%17%12%12%13%11%17%14%13%12%14%11%13%11%
Threats To Democracy20%20%20%**7%10%22%32%9%27%10%20%31%9%33%18%10%10%20%39%29%10%20%35%0%0%100%0%29%5%11%11%1%22%31%9%17%18%**25%18%19%22%19%20%20%22%11%20%22%18%24%15%13%31%
Housing Affordability5%5%6%**11%9%4%1%10%2%8%4%7%4%5%6%3%2%7%8%5%2%7%7%0%0%0%100%4%5%16%10%4%4%5%4%10%11%**5%5%7%4%6%7%3%3%15%10%5%5%5%6%8%1%
Crime3%3%3%**6%3%4%1%4%2%3%4%0%4%1%4%3%3%5%2%0%3%5%1%0%0%0%0%2%3%4%2%3%2%1%4%5%2%**2%4%2%3%4%2%3%3%4%8%2%2%3%3%4%1%
Education2%3%2%**5%4%1%1%4%1%3%2%3%2%3%2%1%2%2%4%3%1%2%4%0%0%0%0%3%1%3%2%8%2%3%1%3%1%**3%2%2%3%1%3%4%2%3%1%5%2%3%2%3%1%
Immigration4%5%3%**4%4%4%3%4%4%9%3%1%5%2%5%8%6%4%0%0%7%4%0%0%0%0%0%1%7%1%6%11%6%1%7%4%3%**8%6%5%1%6%3%3%4%3%4%4%4%4%4%4%3%
Other 5%5%4%**4%6%5%4%5%4%5%5%5%5%4%5%5%6%5%2%7%6%5%3%0%0%0%0%7%5%1%4%6%7%5%3%12%11%**4%4%5%6%6%4%4%4%7%4%4%5%4%6%6%4%
Not Sure2%1%2%**1%3%2%2%2%2%2%1%3%1%2%2%2%1%1%1%2%2%1%1%0%0%0%0%2%1%0%0%0%1%2%1%0%0%**1%2%1%2%3%2%1%1%3%1%1%2%2%1%2%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%51%1%17%22%32%30%39%61%19%67%14%33%33%31%12%23%37%15%9%35%37%23%47%12%20%5%43%40%8%10%5%37%44%39%9%6%5%35%37%29%34%32%36%31%81%19%14%28%57%51%49%62%38%
 
13Recently, prices charged for gas, grocery, electricity, and other goods have risen. Who do you think is most responsible for these price increases? State elected officials? Federal elected officials? Leaders in other countries? Large oil and electric companies and other corporations? Or someone else?
1116 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Likely VoterParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedTop IssueCD-2 1st ChoiceCD-2 2nd ChoiceGov 1st ChoiceGov 2nd ChoiceEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityCongressional DiType Of Intervie
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsManWomanOther18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Probably100% CerAlready RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalEconomyAbortionThreats Housing GoldenPoliquinBondGoldenPoliquinBondMillsLePageHunklerMillsLePageHunklerHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural1st Dist2nd DistOnlineTelephon
State Elected Officials4%5%4%**9%8%2%1%8%2%6%4%3%5%3%6%5%3%5%6%1%4%5%4%4%3%2%13%2%7%4%4%3%6%4%5%5%2%**6%4%4%5%5%4%4%4%7%8%7%2%4%4%6%1%
Federal Elected Officials43%50%37%**37%36%51%45%36%48%47%45%29%74%15%40%75%72%35%11%14%73%35%12%62%18%20%29%16%75%41%50%58%22%14%76%36%40%**37%50%47%33%38%44%47%45%38%46%37%46%43%43%42%46%
Leaders In Other Countries7%6%9%**11%5%3%12%8%7%4%8%9%4%11%7%4%4%10%9%4%4%10%7%6%11%9%10%12%4%9%13%10%12%12%3%9%5%**11%8%8%7%9%7%7%8%6%5%8%8%7%8%5%11%
Oil, Electric Companies / Other Corporations36%32%40%**33%41%35%36%37%35%31%35%49%10%62%37%8%15%41%62%73%13%41%66%22%56%61%32%58%8%46%33%20%50%59%10%41%42%**40%30%34%45%37%36%36%37%32%30%41%35%37%35%37%35%
Other4%5%4%**5%5%4%4%5%4%6%4%5%4%5%5%3%3%4%11%1%3%4%8%3%4%5%13%6%4%0%0%0%5%6%3%4%5%**5%3%4%6%4%5%4%4%7%9%3%4%4%5%4%4%
Not Sure4%3%6%**6%5%5%3%5%4%6%4%6%4%4%4%5%3%4%2%6%4%4%3%2%7%3%3%6%2%1%0%9%4%5%2%6%5%**2%5%4%4%7%4%2%3%9%2%5%5%4%5%6%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%51%1%17%22%32%30%39%61%19%67%14%33%33%31%12%23%37%15%9%35%37%23%47%12%20%5%43%40%8%10%5%37%44%39%9%6%5%35%37%29%34%32%36%31%81%19%14%28%57%51%49%62%38%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.