| Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #19097 |
| Fletcher's Party Change A Non-Issue For Most in San Diego, But A Net Positive For His Campaign: San Diego Mayoral candidate Nathan Fletcher, who has announced he is leaving the Republican Party and becoming an independent, has a Plus 13 Net Favorability among those San Diego adults who are following the mayoral race, according to this exclusive 10 News poll conducted by SurveyUSA. 33% have a favorable opinion of Fletcher; 20% unfavorable. 34% are neutral; 13% have no opinion. Subtracting unfavorability from favorability produces Net Favorability.
Among the San Diego adults following the race who have an opinion on Fletcher, 76% did not shift their support after Fletcher's party change: 27% say they had supported Fletcher before the switch and continue to support him; another 51% say they had supported another candidate and continue to support another candidate. 12%, however, say they previously supported another candidate but have now switched their support to Fletcher. Another 4% had supported Fletcher, but now support someone else. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 San Diego adults 03/28/2012. Of the adults, 420 were identified as following the race for mayor and were asked if their opinion of Nathan Fletcher was favorable, unfavorable, neutral, or if they had no opinion of him. Of those following the race, 364 had an opinion of Fletcher and were asked which candidate they supported before and after Fletcher's announcement. |
| 1 | Are you following news stories about the election for mayor of San Diego? |
| 800 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | ||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| Yes | 52% | 58% | 47% | 39% | 53% | 63% | 76% | 45% | 69% | 56% | 51% | 50% | 46% | 61% | 56% | 47% | 64% | 56% | 53% |
| No | 44% | 38% | 50% | 56% | 45% | 34% | 19% | 51% | 27% | 41% | 48% | 44% | 53% | 37% | 41% | 49% | 34% | 41% | 44% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 49% | 51% | 38% | 30% | 18% | 14% | 68% | 32% | 56% | 7% | 21% | 16% | 30% | 37% | 29% | 28% | 36% | 28% |
| 2 | Is your opinion of Nathan Fletcher ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or do you have no opinion of Nathan Fletcher? |
| 420 Following Race | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | ||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| Favorable | 33% | 41% | 23% | 46% | 27% | 31% | 26% | 36% | 29% | 29% | 22% | 37% | 49% | 39% | 33% | 28% | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Unfavorable | 20% | 19% | 21% | 21% | 26% | 18% | 14% | 23% | 16% | 19% | 21% | 26% | 18% | 15% | 22% | 25% | 14% | 24% | 25% |
| Neutral | 34% | 30% | 38% | 30% | 25% | 38% | 46% | 28% | 42% | 40% | 45% | 26% | 14% | 39% | 31% | 32% | 33% | 35% | 37% |
| No Opinion | 13% | 10% | 17% | 3% | 22% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 19% | 7% | 14% | 15% | 5% | 15% | 13% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Following Race | 100% | 55% | 45% | 28% | 31% | 21% | 20% | 59% | 41% | 59% | 7% | 20% | 14% | 35% | 38% | 25% | 32% | 37% | 28% |
| 3 | Nathan Fletcher has announced that he is no longer a Republican, and is now running for Mayor as an Independent. Which of the following best describes you: One: I HAD supported Fletcher, and I STILL support Fletcher. Two: I HAD supported someone else, and I STILL support someone else. Three: I HAD supported someone else but NOW I support Fletcher. Four: I HAD supported Fletcher, but NOW I support someone else. |
| 364 With An Opinion Of Fletcher | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | ||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| Fletcher/Fletcher | 27% | 29% | 24% | 36% | 21% | 26% | 21% | 29% | 23% | 19% | 8% | 40% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 28% | 41% | 16% | 23% |
| Other/Other | 51% | 47% | 58% | 39% | 57% | 58% | 54% | 48% | 56% | 57% | 61% | 39% | 38% | 46% | 59% | 47% | 42% | 54% | 62% |
| Other/Fletcher | 12% | 16% | 7% | 20% | 11% | 8% | 6% | 16% | 7% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 5% | 11% | 16% | 7% | 11% | 13% | 10% |
| Fletcher/Other | 4% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 16% | 4% | 7% | 7% | 1% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 1% |
| Not Sure | 6% | 4% | 9% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 11% | 4% | 8% | 8% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 1% | 11% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of With An Opinion Of Fletcher | 100% | 57% | 43% | 31% | 27% | 21% | 20% | 59% | 41% | 60% | 7% | 20% | 13% | 37% | 38% | 25% | 35% | 36% | 27% |