Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26036
 
San Diego Area Voters Back Newsom Recall By 9-Pt Margin; Split Over Whether to "Meet Kevin," Choose Kevin's Comeback, or Back the Bear Guy:

SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling of San Diego County for KGTV 10News and the San Diego Union Tribune finds 49% of registered voters say incumbent California Governor Gavin Newsom should be recalled; 40% say Newsom should remain in office.

Republicans support recall by an 8:1 margin; Democrats oppose by a smaller 3:1 margin. Independents narrowly support recalling the Governor, 46% to 39%. Those who have been partially or fully vaccinated against the Coronavirus are evenly split on whether to recall Newsom; those who have not been vaccinated, 18% of San Diego County's registered voters, support recalling Newsom by a 40-point margin.

SurveyUSA then asked registered San Diego County voters which candidate they are most likely to support as Newsom's replacement. After excluding the 12% of registered voters who said they would not support any candidate as a replacement, three candidates lead, clustered together:
  • Democrat Kevin Paffrath, a YouTuber and real estate broker, with 20%. Paffrath draws particular support from those aged 35 to 49, among Black voters, among Democrats and liberals, and leads 4:1 among those who who are opposed to recalling Newsom.
  • Former San Diego Mayor, Republican Kevin Faulconer, with 18%. Faulconer draws support from households with lower incomes, from Hispanic voters, from those aged 50 to 64, and from independents.
  • Republican John Cox, noted bear aficionado and Newsom's 2018 opponent, with 15%. Cox runs strongly with senior citizens, where he leads by 2:1, and among conservatives.
When asked why Newsom should be recalled, a majority of those supporting his recall point to COVID-related issues: 32% cite Newsom's handling of COVID restrictions; 12% the closures of schools; 7% the closures of businesses. Another 11% point to Newsom's attendance at a party while the state was in lockdown. 17% say Newsom's spending decisions are the main reason he should be recalled; 8% say it's the state's wildfires; 7% say the mishandling of unemployment dollars.

Full results follow.
 
About the Poll / Reminders: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 adults from San Diego County 07/27/21 through 07/30/21, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 546 were identified by SurveyUSA as being registered voters and were asked the questions which follow. This is not a poll of likely voters in the September 14 recall election; these registered voters were not asked how they would vote or who they would vote for, but whether they supported or opposed the recall and which candidate they were most likely to support. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, and home ownership. This research was conducted online.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of California?
650 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedRecallVaccinated?2020 VotePublic School PaEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicity
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalRecalledRemain IYesNoTrumpBidenYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural
Yes84%84%84%74%85%94%88%79%92%89%88%81%74%93%91%79%95%86%88%89%91%89%88%90%100%100%87%76%97%92%88%84%65%90%88%71%84%92%93%74%87%86%55%
No13%14%12%20%15%5%8%18%6%10%9%17%17%7%8%18%5%13%10%8%8%11%10%8%--11%22%3%7%11%13%33%9%9%26%14%5%6%21%12%12%33%
Not Sure3%2%3%5%0%1%4%3%2%1%3%2%9%0%1%3%0%0%1%3%1%0%1%2%--3%2%0%1%1%3%3%1%4%3%2%3%1%5%2%2%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%50%50%34%25%23%18%59%41%46%5%33%16%31%38%23%7%22%37%16%8%29%37%24%49%40%75%20%32%47%30%70%20%36%44%25%36%39%53%47%36%58%7%
 
2California will hold an election on whether or not to recall Governor Gavin Newsom on September 14. Voters will be asked two separate questions in the recall election. The first will ask if Newsom should or should not be recalled. Do you think Gavin Newsom should be recalled, which would remove him from office? Or should Newsom remain in office as Governor?
546 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedRecallVaccinated?2020 VotePublic School PaEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicity
Credibility Interval: ± 5.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalRecalledRemain IYesNoTrumpBidenYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural
Should Be Recalled49%58%40%49%40%48%62%45%54%53%18%52%39%83%23%46%78%80%44%25%10%80%44%20%100%0%45%62%85%24%45%51%48%55%44%47%47%51%52%44%52%46%**
Should Remain In Office40%34%46%32%49%46%33%40%41%37%71%40%42%11%66%39%17%14%44%64%81%15%44%70%0%100%46%22%10%64%45%39%41%33%47%37%41%42%42%38%38%43%**
Not Sure11%7%14%18%12%5%4%15%5%10%11%8%19%6%11%15%5%6%12%11%9%6%12%10%0%0%9%16%4%12%10%11%12%12%9%16%12%7%6%17%10%11%**
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%30%25%26%18%56%44%48%5%32%14%34%41%22%8%23%39%17%9%31%39%26%49%40%78%18%37%52%31%69%15%39%46%21%36%43%59%41%37%59%4%
 
3The second question would ask who should replace Newsom and serve out the rest of his term if he is recalled.
Regardless of whether you think Newsom should remain in office or be recalled from office, you will have the opportunity to also vote on who should replace Newsom if he is recalled.

Which of these candidates on the ballot to replace Newsom would you be most likely to support? Or, would you not support any of these candidates?
(candidate names shown to respondents in random order; ranked here for ease of comprehension)

[Voters who said they would not support any candidate were excluded from this question]

482 Registered Voters Who Will Support a ReplacementAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedRecallVaccinated?2020 VotePublic School PaEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicity
Credibility Interval: ± 6.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalRecalledRemain IYesNoTrumpBidenYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural
Kevin Paffrath (D)20%21%20%19%28%20%15%23%17%20%49%19%15%4%41%13%22%4%20%39%42%9%20%40%10%40%23%16%2%38%23%19%24%15%24%18%22%20%20%20%20%20%**
Kevin Faulconer (R)18%20%15%15%18%21%16%16%19%17%10%22%14%27%6%21%20%19%19%13%9%19%19%12%24%10%18%19%26%11%16%18%18%19%16%26%15%15%16%20%15%20%**
Larry Elder (R)15%19%10%9%9%16%30%9%22%16%15%11%16%25%3%17%23%27%11%7%4%26%11%6%25%2%11%17%29%4%14%15%10%16%15%5%17%17%21%6%19%11%**
John Cox (R)7%8%6%7%6%8%7%6%8%7%3%9%3%14%3%3%9%15%4%4%0%14%4%3%11%2%9%3%13%3%5%8%20%4%6%7%5%9%7%7%7%7%**
Caitlyn Jenner (R)3%3%4%4%5%2%2%5%2%4%3%2%5%3%5%2%8%4%3%3%5%5%3%4%4%3%4%4%5%3%6%2%3%4%3%5%3%3%4%2%3%3%**
Kevin Kiley (R)3%4%2%3%4%3%0%4%2%3%0%4%1%4%3%1%5%5%2%0%5%5%2%1%3%3%3%1%4%2%5%2%0%3%4%1%2%4%3%2%3%3%**
Doug Ose (R)2%2%3%6%1%0%0%3%0%3%2%1%1%3%2%0%7%3%1%0%2%4%1%1%3%1%3%1%3%2%3%2%1%2%3%1%3%2%2%2%2%2%**
Some Other Candidate4%3%4%4%3%6%1%4%4%6%2%2%0%1%6%2%0%2%4%7%6%2%4%7%1%5%3%5%2%6%1%5%1%5%4%3%4%3%3%5%2%5%**
Undecided28%21%36%34%27%24%27%31%26%24%16%29%45%18%31%39%5%21%37%27%27%17%37%27%19%33%27%35%18%32%26%29%23%34%26%33%30%25%24%35%29%28%**
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters Who Will Support a Replacement100%51%49%32%25%25%19%57%43%48%5%32%14%37%38%22%9%25%38%16%7%34%38%24%55%34%76%20%41%49%31%69%14%40%46%21%35%44%58%42%38%58%5%
 
4Which of these reasons best describes why you think Newsom should be recalled?
(list of reasons rotated)
267 Registered Voters Who Say Newsom Should Be RecalledAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedRecallVaccinated?2020 VotePublic School PaEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicity
Credibility Interval: ± 9.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalRecalledRemain IYesNoTrumpBidenYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural
His Handling Of COVID Restrictions32%28%37%37%37%22%31%37%26%34%**29%38%30%24%40%31%24%36%29%**26%36%30%32%**33%34%30%37%33%31%14%28%43%22%32%36%33%30%35%30%33%
Closures Of Schools7%4%12%8%5%6%9%7%8%7%**8%2%3%11%16%2%8%9%0%**7%9%4%7%**8%6%5%13%9%6%11%5%8%5%9%7%7%7%5%8%15%
Closures Of Businesses12%11%15%14%19%13%4%16%9%14%**8%22%15%10%9%21%11%7%27%**14%7%26%12%**10%23%12%7%9%14%6%13%14%13%7%17%12%13%8%15%11%
Attending a Party During Lockdown11%13%7%8%11%19%5%9%12%11%**13%0%8%18%14%15%12%7%13%**13%7%15%11%**13%8%10%13%12%10%32%7%7%10%7%14%7%18%11%10%19%
Wildfires8%10%4%3%7%1%20%5%10%5%**14%0%9%8%3%2%15%3%9%**11%3%7%8%**3%3%9%4%2%10%6%11%4%4%14%4%11%2%16%2%0%
Spending Decisions17%20%13%11%12%27%18%12%23%12%**19%38%21%10%12%5%18%26%7%**15%26%6%17%**19%15%21%10%16%17%7%24%13%31%17%11%17%17%11%21%16%
Mishandling Of Unemployment Dollars7%9%5%13%7%6%1%11%4%9%**6%0%7%11%4%17%4%9%7%**7%9%6%7%**8%6%7%10%16%4%6%7%8%4%9%7%7%7%10%5%6%
Some Other Reason5%4%6%3%0%5%10%2%7%6%**4%0%6%3%4%5%8%3%0%**7%3%0%5%**5%5%6%3%2%6%13%3%3%9%6%2%5%4%3%6%0%
Not Sure1%1%2%2%1%0%2%1%1%2%**0%0%0%5%0%2%0%1%7%**0%1%6%1%**2%0%0%4%1%1%3%1%0%2%0%2%0%3%0%2%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters Who Say Newsom Should Be Recalled100%59%41%31%20%26%23%51%49%53%2%34%11%57%20%21%13%37%35%9%2%50%35%11%100%0%71%23%65%25%29%71%15%44%41%20%35%45%63%37%39%56%6%
 
5Do you think Newsom has backed off reinstating COVID restrictions because he is worried about being recalled? Or not?
546 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedRecallVaccinated?2020 VotePublic School PaEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicity
Credibility Interval: ± 5.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalRecalledRemain IYesNoTrumpBidenYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural
Has Backed Off Because Worried About Recall53%58%47%53%57%41%62%55%50%55%26%56%48%65%38%61%74%69%49%49%22%71%49%40%73%32%52%49%70%40%56%51%39%59%52%48%54%54%56%48%54%51%**
Has Not26%26%26%23%25%34%18%24%27%26%51%24%18%20%38%11%13%22%23%28%52%20%23%36%15%41%27%24%16%33%28%25%39%20%26%19%24%30%27%24%21%29%**
Not Sure22%16%27%23%18%25%20%21%23%19%24%20%34%16%24%28%14%8%28%23%26%10%28%24%12%27%21%27%13%27%17%24%22%22%22%33%22%16%17%29%25%20%**
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%30%25%26%18%56%44%48%5%32%14%34%41%22%8%23%39%17%9%31%39%26%49%40%78%18%37%52%31%69%15%39%46%21%36%43%59%41%37%59%4%
 
6Is the battle against COVID today more about politics? Or more about science?
546 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedRecallVaccinated?2020 VotePublic School PaEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicity
Credibility Interval: ± 5.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalRecalledRemain IYesNoTrumpBidenYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRural
Politics66%69%64%64%68%65%72%66%67%69%69%63%67%71%61%69%68%76%63%65%64%74%63%65%78%56%63%78%77%61%62%69%59%67%68%63%67%67%70%62%68%65%**
Science24%25%22%27%22%25%18%25%22%24%24%27%15%17%29%23%25%20%23%28%30%21%23%29%14%36%27%13%15%29%26%22%29%22%23%18%24%26%23%24%22%25%**
Not Sure10%6%14%9%10%11%10%9%11%7%7%11%18%11%10%7%7%4%14%7%6%5%14%7%8%8%10%9%8%10%11%9%12%10%9%19%8%7%7%14%10%10%**
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%30%25%26%18%56%44%48%5%32%14%34%41%22%8%23%39%17%9%31%39%26%49%40%78%18%37%52%31%69%15%39%46%21%36%43%59%41%37%59%4%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.