Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17443
Another Possible Republican Take-Away in Oregon's 5th Congressional District; Incumbent Schrader Trails in Bid For 2nd Term: In an election for US House of Representatives in Oregon's 5th Congressional District today, 10/20/10, Republican challenger Scott Bruun edges Democratic incumbent Kurt Schrader 51% to 41%, according to an exclusive KATU-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Bruun, elected to the Oregon House in 2004, runs strong among men and younger voters. Schrader is within striking distance among women and older voters. As it has in other geographies, SurveyUSA here probes to see if those who rarely vote in congressional elections, but who say they are uniquely motivated to vote in 2010, are voting Republican. One theory underlying much of the 2010 campaign narrative is that Republicans are uniquely motivated, Democrats uniquely dispirited. As SurveyUSA observed in data released 24 hours ago to KATU-TV in Oregon's 1'st Congressional District, that narrative is true here: Bruun leads 2:1 among those who rarely vote in midterms. The contest is closer among those who vote in every congressional election. A question on enthusiasm reveals: those more enthusiastic about voting in 2010 than in prior elections vote Republican 3:1; those less enthusiastic in 2010 than in prior elections vote Democrat 3:1. Among the 1 in 10 voters who have already filled out a ballot, the contest is even. Schrader's hope is that all those who told SurveyUSA they will vote but haven't yet, won't.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters with home telephones from Oregon's 5th Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/17/10 through 10/19/10 using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle. Of the registered voters, 601 were identified by SurveyUSA as having already filled out their ballots or being likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. The election is 100% by mail; ballots were mailed on 10/15/10.
1[Candidate names rotated]
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... Republican Scott Bruun? Democrat Kurt Schrader?
601 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementVote in Midterms2010 Enthusiasm Vs PriorIncome
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniRarelyUsuallyAlwaysMoreLessSame< $50K> $50K
Scott Bruun (R)51%55%48%54%59%46%50%57%48%51%******46%51%83%14%49%87%37%4%91%7%56%42%63%51%49%71%23%39%50%51%
Kurt Schrader (D)41%38%44%37%32%47%43%34%45%41%******47%41%12%79%38%9%53%89%5%86%32%38%26%41%46%25%61%53%39%43%
Chris Lugo (PG)2%2%2%3%3%2%2%3%2%2%******2%2%1%2%5%1%2%3%3%3%1%0%4%1%2%1%6%2%2%2%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%48%52%13%22%39%26%35%65%90%2%3%4%10%90%44%37%18%40%39%19%38%35%20%7%8%44%47%46%13%41%36%64%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.