| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21500 |
|
3 Months to General Election, All Oregon Candidate Contests and Ballot Measures Are Stable, in KATU-TV Tracking Poll:
60 days after SurveyUSA's last look at Oregon's top-ticket contests for Governor, U.S. Senator and high-profile ballot measures, little has changed, according to fresh SurveyUSA research conduct for KATU-TV in Portland. The Governor's race is largely unchanged. Incumbent Democrat John Kitzhaber led Republican challenger Dennis Richardson by 13 points 60 days ago, today leads by 12 points. The U.S. Senate race is largely unchanged. Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley led Republican challenger Monica Webby by 18 points 60 days ago, today leads by 19 points. Feelings about marijuana are largely unchanged. Oregon voters supported the legalization of recreational marijuana 60 days ago by 10 points, today by 9 points. Results on Initiative 27 are largely unchanged. 60 days ago, voters supported a requirement that genetically engineered food be labeled as such by 37 points, today by 38 points. Results on Initiative 10 are largely unchanged. 60 days ago, voters supported the Castle Doctrine Act by 33 points, today by 32 points. Voters continue to say that Affordable Care Act will be a major factor in how they vote for U.S. Senate, unchanged from 60 days ago. A plurality continue to say that Governor Kitzhaber deserves some (but not all) of the blame for the failure of Cover Oregon, unchanged from 60 days ago. Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of Oregon adults 08/01/14 through 08/05/14. Of the adults, 779 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 564 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. |
 | If you were filling out your ballot for Oregon governor today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Dennis Richardson? Democrat John Kitzhaber? Or some other candidate? |
| 564 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | ACA Impact | Cover Oregon Impact | Kitzhaber Blame | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | All | Most | Some | None | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Portland | Rest of | |
| Dennis Richardson (R) | 36% | 43% | 29% | 33% | 32% | 36% | 41% | 33% | 38% | 53% | 27% | 17% | 64% | 28% | 13% | 84% | 60% | 16% | 3% | 77% | 7% | 37% | 79% | 28% | 6% | 42% | 38% | 33% | 35% | 38% | 34% | 29% | 39% | 35% | 39% |
| John Kitzhaber (D) | 48% | 44% | 53% | 52% | 53% | 45% | 47% | 53% | 46% | 34% | 52% | 70% | 18% | 49% | 82% | 3% | 16% | 69% | 95% | 10% | 82% | 37% | 9% | 54% | 84% | 39% | 48% | 51% | 50% | 44% | 55% | 60% | 44% | 51% | 43% |
| Other | 7% | 6% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 12% | 8% | 1% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 10% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 5% | 12% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 9% | 7% | 6% |
| Undecided | 9% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 13% | 6% | 5% | 15% | 6% | 7% | 16% | 3% | 4% | 11% | 9% | 1% | 8% | 6% | 14% | 6% | 13% | 2% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 12% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 12% | 23% | 38% | 28% | 35% | 65% | 47% | 26% | 25% | 36% | 28% | 33% | 20% | 20% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 43% | 26% | 28% | 43% | 25% | 12% | 42% | 46% | 30% | 41% | 28% | 29% | 71% | 65% | 35% |
 | If you were filling out your ballot for United States Senator from Oregon today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Monica Wehby? Democrat Jeff Merkley? Or some other candidate? |
| 564 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | ACA Impact | Cover Oregon Impact | Kitzhaber Blame | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | All | Most | Some | None | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Portland | Rest of | |
| Monica Wehby (R) | 33% | 39% | 25% | 28% | 29% | 32% | 38% | 29% | 35% | 50% | 22% | 13% | 59% | 25% | 11% | 73% | 58% | 15% | 2% | 71% | 5% | 34% | 71% | 25% | 6% | 38% | 31% | 32% | 32% | 34% | 31% | 24% | 36% | 30% | 37% |
| Jeff Merkley (D) | 52% | 46% | 59% | 54% | 58% | 49% | 52% | 56% | 50% | 36% | 60% | 76% | 23% | 54% | 84% | 15% | 24% | 69% | 94% | 12% | 88% | 39% | 11% | 59% | 88% | 39% | 54% | 55% | 51% | 49% | 60% | 58% | 50% | 55% | 47% |
| Other | 7% | 5% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 9% | 10% | 6% | 1% | 8% | 4% | 9% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 6% | 7% |
| Undecided | 9% | 10% | 8% | 17% | 10% | 9% | 4% | 13% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 5% | 9% | 14% | 2% | 3% | 9% | 10% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 19% | 8% | 11% | 3% | 14% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 17% | 5% | 9% | 8% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 12% | 23% | 38% | 28% | 35% | 65% | 47% | 26% | 25% | 36% | 28% | 33% | 20% | 20% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 43% | 26% | 28% | 43% | 25% | 12% | 42% | 46% | 30% | 41% | 28% | 29% | 71% | 65% | 35% |
 | How much of a factor will the future of the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, be in determining how you will vote in the race for United States Senate? A major factor? A minor factor? Or not a factor at all? |
| 564 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | ACA Impact | Cover Oregon Impact | Kitzhaber Blame | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | All | Most | Some | None | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Portland | Rest of | |
| Major Factor | 47% | 46% | 47% | 62% | 30% | 48% | 51% | 42% | 49% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 81% | 30% | 24% | 73% | 60% | 32% | 38% | 65% | 28% | 56% | 72% | 41% | 30% | 59% | 45% | 45% | 57% | 39% | 47% | 44% | 48% | 42% | 55% |
| Minor Factor | 26% | 28% | 24% | 24% | 35% | 26% | 20% | 31% | 23% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 12% | 57% | 17% | 15% | 24% | 38% | 19% | 21% | 33% | 22% | 15% | 32% | 26% | 24% | 27% | 26% | 21% | 30% | 25% | 27% | 26% | 28% | 22% |
| Not a Factor | 25% | 24% | 25% | 12% | 33% | 22% | 28% | 26% | 24% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 6% | 13% | 57% | 11% | 16% | 29% | 41% | 12% | 37% | 19% | 10% | 25% | 42% | 15% | 24% | 28% | 18% | 29% | 27% | 26% | 24% | 28% | 19% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 12% | 23% | 38% | 28% | 35% | 65% | 47% | 26% | 25% | 36% | 28% | 33% | 20% | 20% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 43% | 26% | 28% | 43% | 25% | 12% | 42% | 46% | 30% | 41% | 28% | 29% | 71% | 65% | 35% |
 | How much of a factor will the failure of Cover Oregon be in determining how you will vote in the race for Governor? |
| 564 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | ACA Impact | Cover Oregon Impact | Kitzhaber Blame | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | All | Most | Some | None | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Portland | Rest of | |
| Major Factor | 36% | 40% | 31% | 46% | 24% | 38% | 38% | 32% | 38% | 62% | 17% | 8% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 73% | 56% | 19% | 8% | 54% | 18% | 46% | 64% | 31% | 14% | 55% | 32% | 35% | 40% | 35% | 33% | 33% | 37% | 34% | 39% |
| Minor Factor | 28% | 28% | 27% | 37% | 35% | 23% | 22% | 36% | 23% | 18% | 60% | 14% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 12% | 30% | 41% | 12% | 25% | 28% | 30% | 19% | 32% | 29% | 19% | 31% | 27% | 22% | 32% | 27% | 29% | 27% | 28% | 28% |
| Not a Factor | 33% | 31% | 36% | 11% | 39% | 34% | 37% | 30% | 35% | 17% | 22% | 76% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 12% | 10% | 38% | 78% | 16% | 53% | 21% | 14% | 33% | 55% | 23% | 34% | 35% | 35% | 30% | 37% | 34% | 33% | 35% | 29% |
| Not Sure | 3% | 1% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 12% | 23% | 38% | 28% | 35% | 65% | 47% | 26% | 25% | 36% | 28% | 33% | 20% | 20% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 43% | 26% | 28% | 43% | 25% | 12% | 42% | 46% | 30% | 41% | 28% | 29% | 71% | 65% | 35% |
 | How much of the blame do you think Governor John Kitzhaber personally deserves for the failure of Cover Oregon? Almost all of it? Most of it? Some of it? Or almost none of it? |
| 564 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | ACA Impact | Cover Oregon Impact | Kitzhaber Blame | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | All | Most | Some | None | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Portland | Rest of | |
| All | 20% | 25% | 16% | 13% | 15% | 20% | 28% | 14% | 24% | 32% | 11% | 9% | 41% | 9% | 8% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 37% | 6% | 25% | 41% | 17% | 4% | 32% | 20% | 17% | 24% | 21% | 15% | 10% | 25% | 19% | 23% |
| Most | 20% | 22% | 17% | 19% | 14% | 23% | 20% | 16% | 22% | 25% | 18% | 13% | 31% | 22% | 6% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 35% | 10% | 18% | 30% | 20% | 10% | 21% | 19% | 20% | 19% | 20% | 20% | 16% | 21% | 20% | 19% |
| Some | 37% | 31% | 44% | 46% | 41% | 35% | 33% | 43% | 34% | 25% | 54% | 43% | 20% | 56% | 42% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 21% | 50% | 35% | 22% | 43% | 43% | 34% | 38% | 38% | 35% | 37% | 41% | 42% | 35% | 41% | 31% |
| None | 17% | 16% | 17% | 13% | 23% | 16% | 15% | 20% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 27% | 4% | 8% | 39% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 5% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 15% | 35% | 6% | 17% | 19% | 16% | 16% | 19% | 23% | 14% | 16% | 18% |
| Not Sure | 6% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 9% | 5% | 4% | 9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 12% | 23% | 38% | 28% | 35% | 65% | 47% | 26% | 25% | 36% | 28% | 33% | 20% | 20% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 43% | 26% | 28% | 43% | 25% | 12% | 42% | 46% | 30% | 41% | 28% | 29% | 71% | 65% | 35% |
 | Oregon will also vote on several ballot measures. First, on the topic of recreational marijuana, there are three separate measures on the ballot. While each is different, in general, they would allow adults to use, possess, and grow marijuana for their own personal use, while allowing the state to regulate and tax the marijuana. In general, do you support? Or oppose? Allowing adults to use, possess and grow marijuana for their personal use, while allowing the state to regulate and tax marijuana? |
| 564 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | ACA Impact | Cover Oregon Impact | Kitzhaber Blame | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | All | Most | Some | None | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Portland | Rest of | |
| Support | 51% | 52% | 50% | 66% | 57% | 54% | 36% | 60% | 46% | 41% | 55% | 66% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 32% | 34% | 58% | 74% | 26% | 69% | 50% | 26% | 53% | 78% | 39% | 52% | 53% | 50% | 51% | 55% | 62% | 47% | 51% | 50% |
| Oppose | 42% | 43% | 42% | 25% | 35% | 40% | 59% | 32% | 48% | 53% | 39% | 27% | 61% | 34% | 29% | 67% | 56% | 34% | 23% | 66% | 27% | 41% | 68% | 39% | 18% | 51% | 41% | 41% | 44% | 43% | 38% | 26% | 49% | 42% | 43% |
| Not Sure | 6% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 12% | 4% | 6% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 12% | 23% | 38% | 28% | 35% | 65% | 47% | 26% | 25% | 36% | 28% | 33% | 20% | 20% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 43% | 26% | 28% | 43% | 25% | 12% | 42% | 46% | 30% | 41% | 28% | 29% | 71% | 65% | 35% |
 | Now, moving on to some specific ballot measures that voters may decide on in November ... First, Initiative 27, which would require some genetically engineered food to be labeled as such. On Initiative 27, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? |
| 564 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | ACA Impact | Cover Oregon Impact | Kitzhaber Blame | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | All | Most | Some | None | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Portland | Rest of | |
| Yes | 54% | 45% | 64% | 68% | 64% | 52% | 43% | 65% | 48% | 53% | 58% | 53% | 47% | 60% | 59% | 42% | 41% | 65% | 56% | 41% | 59% | 60% | 41% | 55% | 68% | 48% | 58% | 53% | 59% | 54% | 51% | 61% | 51% | 51% | 60% |
| No | 16% | 22% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 20% | 18% | 9% | 19% | 19% | 14% | 11% | 24% | 11% | 9% | 32% | 20% | 9% | 7% | 26% | 11% | 13% | 26% | 15% | 6% | 14% | 15% | 17% | 11% | 20% | 15% | 13% | 17% | 17% | 13% |
| Not Certain | 30% | 33% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 28% | 40% | 25% | 33% | 28% | 28% | 36% | 29% | 29% | 32% | 27% | 38% | 25% | 37% | 33% | 30% | 27% | 33% | 29% | 26% | 38% | 27% | 31% | 30% | 27% | 35% | 26% | 32% | 32% | 26% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 12% | 23% | 38% | 28% | 35% | 65% | 47% | 26% | 25% | 36% | 28% | 33% | 20% | 20% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 43% | 26% | 28% | 43% | 25% | 12% | 42% | 46% | 30% | 41% | 28% | 29% | 71% | 65% | 35% |
 | Next, Initiative 10, the Oregon Castle Doctrine Act, which would expand the laws allowing the defensive use of deadly force in the home and eliminate a landowner's liability for an adult trespasser's injury or death. On Initiative 10, are you Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? |
| 564 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | ACA Impact | Cover Oregon Impact | Kitzhaber Blame | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | All | Most | Some | None | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Portland | Rest of | |
| Yes | 47% | 58% | 35% | 63% | 50% | 46% | 40% | 54% | 43% | 57% | 42% | 34% | 63% | 47% | 32% | 72% | 55% | 42% | 24% | 64% | 31% | 56% | 68% | 50% | 21% | 53% | 55% | 39% | 52% | 47% | 43% | 53% | 45% | 46% | 50% |
| No | 15% | 13% | 17% | 14% | 13% | 18% | 13% | 13% | 16% | 12% | 18% | 19% | 9% | 15% | 23% | 5% | 10% | 18% | 28% | 5% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 15% | 28% | 2% | 14% | 19% | 13% | 17% | 15% | 18% | 14% | 17% | 12% |
| Not Certain | 38% | 29% | 47% | 23% | 37% | 36% | 47% | 32% | 41% | 31% | 41% | 47% | 28% | 38% | 44% | 23% | 34% | 40% | 48% | 31% | 45% | 33% | 29% | 35% | 50% | 45% | 30% | 42% | 35% | 36% | 42% | 29% | 41% | 38% | 38% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 12% | 23% | 38% | 28% | 35% | 65% | 47% | 26% | 25% | 36% | 28% | 33% | 20% | 20% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 43% | 26% | 28% | 43% | 25% | 12% | 42% | 46% | 30% | 41% | 28% | 29% | 71% | 65% | 35% |