Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13711
One Week to PA Democratic Primary, Clinton Still Atop Obama By Double Digits: In a Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania today, 04/15/08, one week to the vote, Hillary Clinton remains comfortably atop Barack Obama, 54% to 40%, according to SurveyUSA's 4th tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WHP-TV Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV Scranton. In 3 previous releases, SurveyUSA has shown Clinton ahead by 19 points one month ago, 12 points two weeks ago, 18 points last week and, today, 14 points. More should be made of the consistency across these polls than the comparatively small movement from one to the other. Clinton has polled at 55%, 53%, 56%, and 54%. Obama has polled at 36%, 41%, 38%, 40%. SurveyUSA does not show the contest necessarily tightening, nor does SurveyUSA show the race necessarily "tight." Clinton has a slight advantage among men, as she has in 3 of 4 SurveyUSA polls. Clinton has an significant advantage among women, as she has in 4 of 4 polls. Of note: Obama has gained ground among Democrats who attend religious services regularly. He had trailed Clinton by as many as 19 points among regular church goers, but today closes to within 7. Clinton and Obama are even among those who have graduated college. Clinton leads 2:1 among those who have not. The contest remains tight in Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia; the lead has changed hands in each of the 4 tracking polls. In Southwest PA, which includes Pittsburgh, Clinton gained ground this week. In West Central PA, which includes Johnstown, Clinton retook ground this week that Obama had claimed earlier. In South Central PA, which includes Harrisburg, Obama gained ground. In NE PA, which includes Scranton, and in NW PA, which includes Erie, there was little movement. Among liberals, Obama moved atop Clinton for the first time.
Context: Much is being made about the lack of pollster consensus in Pennsylvania. SurveyUSA addresses the issue, and provides some historical perspective, here.
Filtering: 1,600 state of PA adults were interviewed 04/12/08 through 04/14/08. Of them, 1,401 were registered to vote. Of them, 638 were determined by SurveyUSA to be eligible Democrats likely to vote in the Democratic Primary on 04/22/08. All interviews for this survey were conducted after Obama used the term "bitter." Approximately 60% of the interviews for this survey were conducted before the candidate "compassion" forum on 04/13/08, 40% were conducted after. Clinton's support was strongest on the third day of the three-day field period. The Pennsylvania Primary is "closed." Only registered Democrats are allowed to vote. There is no early voting. Pennsylvania's 158 Democratic Convention delegates are awarded proportionally. The state has 19 Congressional Districts.
If the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for...(names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? Or some other Democrat?
638 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceIdeologyAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentCollege GradRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackConservaModerateLiberalRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigratYesNoNorthwesSouthwesWest CenSouth CeNortheasSoutheas
Composition of Likely Voters100%45%55%19%31%26%24%51%49%43%16%42%81%14%10%44%24%47%29%24%34%64%17%82%44%4%15%21%3%3%5%3%44%56%4%23%6%8%13%46%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.