| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10185 |
| Republican Bilbray Increases Lead in Duke Cunningham's District: In an election for the U.S. House of Representatives today, 9/13/06, in California's 50th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Congressman Brian Bilbray defeats Democrat Francine Busby 54% to 40%, effectively taking this seat out of play for the Democrats, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV San Diego. Bilbray, who beat Busby by 4 points in a special election 6/6/06 to win the seat, now with the advantages of incumbency leads by 14 points. In an identical SurveyUSA KGTV-TV poll 2 months ago, Bilbray led by 11 points. The election is in 8 weeks, on 11/7/06. Much of the movement from SurveyUSA's July poll to today comes from Moderates. Busby had led by 14 among CA50 Moderates, now trails by 3, a 17-point swing. Moderates make-up 42% of likely voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model. Bilbray leads among male voters by 34 points. Busby leads among female voters by 4 points, a 38-point "gender gap." Bilbray wins 15:1 among Republicans. Busby wins 7:1 among Democrats. Independents are tied. Among those who approve of President Bush's job performance, Bilbray leads 30:1. Those who disapprove of Bush's performance vote for by Busby 5:1. |
| Filtering: 800 registered voters from California's 50th Congressional District were interviewed 9/10/06 - 9/12/06. Of them, 540 were judged to be "likely voters." Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters. |
 | If the election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Brian Bilbray? Democrat Francine Busby? Or some other candidate? |
| 540 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | Race | Party | Ideology | Education | Income | Bush Job Approva | Generation | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | No Colle | Some Col | College | Grad Sch | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Approve | Disappro | Gen Y | Gen X | Jones | Boomers | Mature | |
| Bilbray (R) | 54% | 64% | 45% | 56% | 53% | 50% | 60% | 55% | ** | 41% | 47% | 88% | 12% | 46% | 89% | 48% | 11% | 54% | 64% | 49% | 50% | 55% | 55% | 52% | 92% | 16% | 57% | 51% | 52% | 53% | 60% |
| Busby (D) | 40% | 30% | 49% | 37% | 41% | 44% | 35% | 40% | ** | 48% | 43% | 6% | 86% | 44% | 4% | 45% | 87% | 43% | 28% | 46% | 45% | 39% | 36% | 44% | 3% | 77% | 33% | 42% | 43% | 41% | 35% |
| Other | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| Undecided | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | ** | 12% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 16% | 32% | 31% | 21% | 82% | 3% | 9% | 6% | 46% | 32% | 21% | 34% | 42% | 20% | 6% | 28% | 26% | 39% | 15% | 29% | 50% | 47% | 49% | 8% | 21% | 27% | 23% | 21% |