| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25521 |
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1st-Term US House Democrat Levin Appears to Fend Off Challenge by Republican Maryott To Flip Issa's Old CA-49 Seat Back to GOP:
7 weeks till California begins to count the ballots in the 2020 Presidential Election, Republicans face an uphill climb in their battle to flip Republican Darryl Issa's old seat in the US House of Representatives back to the GOP, after Democrat Mike Levin won the open seat in 2018, according to fresh opinion research from SurveyUSA, conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV and the Union Tribune. At this hour, with ballots about to go into the US mail and early voting about to begin, the contest stands: * Levin, 49%, Republican challenger Brian Maryott, 37%. * Levin won the seat by 13 points in 2018, leads by 12 today, with 14% of likely voters undecided. * 81% of Levin backers say they are voting "for" Levin as opposed to 11% voting "against" Maryott. * By contrast, just 60% of Maryott backers are voting "for" Maryott vs. 29% voting "against" incumbent Levin. * 70% of Levin backers vote for him "enthusiastically," 22% back him "with reservations." * 66% of Maryott backers vote for him "enthusiastically," just 15% back Maryott "with reservations." * Maryott and Levin tie among men. But Levin leads nearly 2:1 among women. * Maryott has strength among voters age 35 to 49, but Levin leads among younger and older voters. * Independents break for the Democrat by 10 points, moderates break for the Democrat by 25 points. * Among those "100% certain" to vote, Levin's lead expands to 15 points. * Among the smaller group of those "almost certain" to vote, Maryott has a nominal 4-point edge over Levin. * Levin has a Plus 19 Net Favorability Rating: 38% of voters view him favorably, 19% unfavorably. * Maryott has a Plus 4 Net Favorability: 18% view him favorably, 14% unfavorably and 69% do not feel strongly one way or the other about Maryott. * In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried CA-49 by 7.5 points. * Today, Democrat Joe Biden leads incumbent Republican President Donald Trump in CA-49 by 21 points. * Of Trump 2020 voters, 1% cross-over and pick Levin down-ballot. * Of Biden 2020 voters, 4% cross-over and pick Maryott down-ballot * Levin leads by 34 points among voters who plan to vote early by US mail. * Maryott leads by 41 points among voters who plan to vote in-person on Election Day, 11/03/2020. * Failure to deliver the US mail and/or fire or flood on Election Day will materially alter the outcome. About: SurveyUSA interviewed 625 voting-age individuals from California's 49th US Congressional District 09/11/2020 through 09/14/2020. The research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. 58% of likely voters were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Sample for this portion of the electorate was drawn from voter files of those known to be registered in the district using Aristotle of Washington DC. 42% of likely voters were interviewed online, using sample drawn from Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Online sample drawn was of adults, who were qualified as registered voters during the course of the survey. When the 2 sample sources are combined, 553 respondents are registered to vote in CA-49 and of them, 517 are judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day, barring something unforeseen. Issa, who has represented both California's 48th US Congressional District and California's 49th US Congressional District, is at present running for the US House of Representatives in California's 50th US Congressional District, where he is even money with Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar. SurveyUSA's exclusive polling for KGTV-TV and the Union Tribune in CA-50 is available here. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of California? |
| 625 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Will You Vote | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By US Ma | In Perso | On Elect | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Yes | 89% | 95% | 82% | 75% | 90% | 89% | 99% | 82% | 94% | 91% | ** | 74% | ** | 94% | 92% | 85% | 91% | 94% | 93% | 90% | 79% | 93% | 93% | 86% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 96% | 67% | 89% | 93% | 85% | 75% | 98% | 88% | 89% | 92% | 82% | 87% | 91% | ** | 97% | 86% | 78% | 99% |
| No | 10% | 4% | 16% | 19% | 9% | 11% | 1% | 15% | 6% | 8% | ** | 24% | ** | 6% | 6% | 12% | 9% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 21% | 7% | 5% | 12% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 4% | 30% | 9% | 6% | 11% | 23% | 2% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 15% | 13% | 8% | ** | 3% | 12% | 20% | 0% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 1% | ** | 2% | ** | 0% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 2% | ** | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 22% | 28% | 26% | 46% | 54% | 80% | 1% | 14% | 5% | 36% | 38% | 21% | 11% | 18% | 35% | 19% | 10% | 29% | 35% | 28% | 13% | 80% | 61% | 12% | 22% | 37% | 58% | 33% | 42% | 12% | 34% | 54% | 16% | 34% | 50% | 24% | 75% | 60% | 40% | 23% | 73% | 4% | 32% | 41% | 50% | 50% |
 | Is your opinion of Brian Maryott extremely favorable? Favorable? Neutral? Unfavorable? Extremely unfavorable? Or, do you have no opinion of him? |
| 553 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Will You Vote | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By US Ma | In Perso | On Elect | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Extremely Favorable | 11% | 15% | 6% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 8% | 13% | 10% | ** | 20% | ** | 25% | 1% | 7% | 29% | 25% | 7% | 0% | 4% | 27% | 7% | 1% | 9% | 12% | 7% | 8% | 26% | 28% | 1% | 26% | 0% | 2% | 12% | 12% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 9% | 15% | 2% | 7% | 11% | ** | 16% | 6% | 2% | 18% |
| Favorable | 7% | 7% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 9% | 5% | 7% | ** | 4% | ** | 6% | 4% | 13% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 11% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 9% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 9% | 6% | ** | 6% | 7% | 9% | 5% |
| Neutral | 23% | 26% | 19% | 31% | 24% | 21% | 18% | 28% | 19% | 24% | ** | 16% | ** | 26% | 19% | 26% | 20% | 21% | 27% | 22% | 4% | 21% | 27% | 16% | 31% | 22% | 23% | 33% | 20% | 22% | 22% | 28% | 23% | 18% | 23% | 24% | 27% | 21% | 24% | 17% | 26% | 20% | 29% | 25% | 22% | ** | 26% | 19% | 26% | 20% |
| Unfavorable | 8% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | ** | 19% | ** | 4% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 17% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 16% | 11% | 8% | 10% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 12% | 3% | 13% | 3% | 8% | 9% | 3% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 10% | ** | 11% | 9% | 7% | 9% |
| Extremely Unfavorable | 6% | 3% | 8% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 8% | 5% | ** | 6% | ** | 2% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 7% | 15% | 2% | 6% | 9% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 9% | 2% | 9% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 5% | ** | 3% | 7% | 1% | 9% |
| No Opinion | 46% | 39% | 53% | 43% | 45% | 46% | 47% | 44% | 47% | 47% | ** | 35% | ** | 37% | 54% | 42% | 36% | 37% | 46% | 50% | 60% | 37% | 46% | 53% | 36% | 46% | 46% | 42% | 38% | 36% | 49% | 32% | 51% | 69% | 48% | 41% | 56% | 48% | 42% | 48% | 45% | 42% | 53% | 50% | 45% | ** | 38% | 51% | 55% | 38% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 21% | 22% | 28% | 29% | 43% | 57% | 82% | 1% | 12% | 5% | 38% | 40% | 20% | 11% | 19% | 37% | 19% | 9% | 30% | 37% | 28% | 13% | 80% | 61% | 12% | 22% | 37% | 58% | 37% | 45% | 9% | 34% | 57% | 16% | 29% | 55% | 24% | 76% | 63% | 37% | 22% | 75% | 2% | 35% | 40% | 44% | 56% |
 | If your opinion of Mike Levin is... |
| 553 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Will You Vote | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By US Ma | In Perso | On Elect | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Extremely Favorable | 21% | 19% | 23% | 6% | 10% | 26% | 36% | 8% | 31% | 21% | ** | 26% | ** | 7% | 42% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 23% | 38% | 31% | 6% | 23% | 36% | 14% | 23% | 28% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 37% | 4% | 41% | 10% | 16% | 25% | 9% | 20% | 23% | 22% | 20% | 27% | 9% | 14% | 22% | ** | 21% | 23% | 4% | 34% |
| Favorable | 17% | 17% | 18% | 15% | 27% | 16% | 13% | 21% | 15% | 18% | ** | 10% | ** | 12% | 20% | 23% | 3% | 7% | 24% | 28% | 15% | 5% | 24% | 24% | 21% | 16% | 15% | 20% | 21% | 8% | 21% | 11% | 23% | 11% | 14% | 20% | 19% | 18% | 17% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 15% | 16% | 19% | ** | 18% | 19% | 24% | 12% |
| Neutral | 19% | 20% | 18% | 30% | 17% | 19% | 13% | 23% | 16% | 20% | ** | 14% | ** | 21% | 15% | 25% | 26% | 29% | 15% | 9% | 21% | 28% | 15% | 12% | 25% | 18% | 19% | 22% | 16% | 21% | 16% | 22% | 14% | 30% | 23% | 15% | 20% | 24% | 17% | 18% | 20% | 15% | 27% | 25% | 17% | ** | 15% | 19% | 25% | 15% |
| Unfavorable | 9% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 10% | ** | 4% | ** | 14% | 4% | 12% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 14% | 10% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 6% | 17% | 5% | 16% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 7% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | ** | 9% | 9% | 11% | 8% |
| Extremely Unfavorable | 10% | 16% | 3% | 4% | 8% | 14% | 12% | 6% | 13% | 9% | ** | 20% | ** | 22% | 1% | 6% | 21% | 23% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 23% | 8% | 0% | 2% | 12% | 5% | 0% | 31% | 25% | 1% | 24% | 0% | 2% | 10% | 12% | 2% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 13% | 3% | 6% | 11% | ** | 18% | 4% | 1% | 17% |
| No Opinion | 23% | 20% | 27% | 33% | 31% | 16% | 18% | 32% | 17% | 23% | ** | 26% | ** | 25% | 19% | 23% | 24% | 23% | 20% | 20% | 26% | 24% | 20% | 22% | 32% | 21% | 22% | 25% | 19% | 27% | 19% | 23% | 18% | 44% | 29% | 17% | 39% | 20% | 22% | 17% | 26% | 17% | 36% | 30% | 23% | ** | 19% | 26% | 35% | 14% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 21% | 22% | 28% | 29% | 43% | 57% | 82% | 1% | 12% | 5% | 38% | 40% | 20% | 11% | 19% | 37% | 19% | 9% | 30% | 37% | 28% | 13% | 80% | 61% | 12% | 22% | 37% | 58% | 37% | 45% | 9% | 34% | 57% | 16% | 29% | 55% | 24% | 76% | 63% | 37% | 22% | 75% | 2% | 35% | 40% | 44% | 56% |
| 4 | California's 49th congressional district will elect a US Representative on November 3. Not everyone has a chance to vote in an election. Which best describes you? |
| 553 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Will You Vote | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By US Ma | In Perso | On Elect | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Not Interested | 2% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 2% | ** | 1% | ** | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | 4% | 1% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 6% | 3% | 2% | ** | 1% | 3% | 5% | 0% |
| Not Sure If Time | 3% | 4% | 1% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | ** | 5% | ** | 2% | 1% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | 4% | 0% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | ** | 5% | 1% | 4% | 2% |
| Almost Certain | 13% | 14% | 12% | 18% | 14% | 7% | 15% | 16% | 11% | 12% | ** | 15% | ** | 15% | 8% | 20% | 12% | 11% | 17% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 17% | 11% | 100% | 0% | 16% | 9% | 15% | 16% | 11% | 16% | 9% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 24% | 16% | 9% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 19% | 12% | ** | 13% | 11% | 14% | 13% |
| 100% Certain | 80% | 78% | 83% | 68% | 74% | 92% | 81% | 72% | 87% | 81% | ** | 79% | ** | 81% | 85% | 70% | 80% | 87% | 74% | 87% | 80% | 85% | 74% | 85% | 0% | 100% | 84% | 91% | 85% | 84% | 89% | 76% | 87% | 70% | 80% | 82% | 67% | 74% | 87% | 81% | 80% | 82% | 75% | 69% | 83% | ** | 81% | 85% | 75% | 84% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 2% | ** | 1% | ** | 0% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 7% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 21% | 22% | 28% | 29% | 43% | 57% | 82% | 1% | 12% | 5% | 38% | 40% | 20% | 11% | 19% | 37% | 19% | 9% | 30% | 37% | 28% | 13% | 80% | 61% | 12% | 22% | 37% | 58% | 37% | 45% | 9% | 34% | 57% | 16% | 29% | 55% | 24% | 76% | 63% | 37% | 22% | 75% | 2% | 35% | 40% | 44% | 56% |
 | How will you cast your ballot this year? By mail? In person before election day? Or in person on election day? |
| 517 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Will You Vote | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By US Ma | In Perso | On Elect | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| By Mail | 61% | 55% | 68% | 57% | 54% | 56% | 75% | 55% | 65% | 62% | ** | 58% | ** | 50% | 73% | 64% | 51% | 48% | 64% | 73% | 75% | 49% | 64% | 73% | 69% | 60% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 42% | 73% | 47% | 76% | 59% | 53% | 67% | 61% | 60% | 63% | 71% | 59% | 65% | 58% | 57% | 64% | ** | 61% | 67% | 58% | 63% |
| In Person Before Election Day | 12% | 14% | 10% | 27% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 19% | 7% | 12% | ** | 10% | ** | 10% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 13% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 10% | 3% | 21% | 9% | 21% | 13% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 9% | 18% | 24% | 9% | ** | 8% | 9% | 20% | 7% |
| In Person On Election Day | 22% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 30% | 30% | 16% | 19% | 23% | 20% | ** | 29% | ** | 34% | 10% | 23% | 37% | 33% | 23% | 10% | 7% | 34% | 23% | 9% | 23% | 21% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 39% | 11% | 36% | 10% | 29% | 21% | 21% | 15% | 18% | 25% | 18% | 22% | 24% | 15% | 17% | 22% | ** | 28% | 16% | 17% | 25% |
| Not Sure | 5% | 3% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 5% | ** | 3% | ** | 5% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 8% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 9% | 2% | 5% | ** | 2% | 7% | 5% | 5% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 19% | 21% | 30% | 29% | 40% | 60% | 82% | 1% | 12% | 5% | 39% | 40% | 20% | 11% | 20% | 36% | 20% | 8% | 31% | 36% | 28% | 14% | 86% | 61% | 12% | 22% | 37% | 58% | 36% | 47% | 8% | 34% | 58% | 15% | 28% | 57% | 24% | 75% | 65% | 35% | 21% | 76% | 2% | 35% | 41% | 42% | 58% |
 | If the November election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? Republican Brian Maryott? or Democrat Mike Levin? |
| 517 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Will You Vote | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By US Ma | In Perso | On Elect | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Brian Maryott (R) | 37% | 44% | 29% | 28% | 45% | 40% | 33% | 37% | 37% | 37% | ** | 34% | ** | 76% | 2% | 31% | 89% | 77% | 30% | 2% | 4% | 82% | 30% | 2% | 41% | 36% | 26% | 38% | 65% | 87% | 4% | 84% | 4% | 36% | 40% | 35% | 38% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 37% | 39% | 30% | 35% | 37% | ** | 44% | 31% | 34% | 39% |
| Mike Levin (D) | 49% | 43% | 55% | 47% | 37% | 49% | 59% | 42% | 54% | 48% | ** | 59% | ** | 13% | 90% | 41% | 5% | 14% | 55% | 87% | 93% | 11% | 55% | 89% | 37% | 51% | 60% | 37% | 24% | 1% | 83% | 7% | 87% | 37% | 41% | 55% | 42% | 47% | 52% | 53% | 48% | 53% | 42% | 41% | 52% | ** | 50% | 54% | 41% | 55% |
| Undecided | 14% | 13% | 16% | 25% | 18% | 11% | 8% | 22% | 9% | 15% | ** | 7% | ** | 11% | 7% | 28% | 5% | 9% | 16% | 11% | 3% | 7% | 16% | 9% | 22% | 13% | 13% | 25% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 9% | 9% | 26% | 19% | 9% | 19% | 17% | 12% | 10% | 16% | 8% | 28% | 23% | 11% | ** | 6% | 15% | 26% | 6% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 19% | 21% | 30% | 29% | 40% | 60% | 82% | 1% | 12% | 5% | 39% | 40% | 20% | 11% | 20% | 36% | 20% | 8% | 31% | 36% | 28% | 14% | 86% | 61% | 12% | 22% | 37% | 58% | 36% | 47% | 8% | 34% | 58% | 15% | 28% | 57% | 24% | 75% | 65% | 35% | 21% | 76% | 2% | 35% | 41% | 42% | 58% |
 | Is yours more a vote FOR Maryott? Or is yours more a vote AGAINST Levin? |
| 190 Maryott Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Will You Vote | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 9.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By US Ma | In Perso | On Elect | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| For Maryott | 60% | 58% | 64% | 53% | 81% | 49% | 58% | 71% | 53% | 60% | ** | 59% | ** | 63% | ** | 55% | 61% | 63% | 55% | ** | ** | 62% | 55% | ** | 59% | 60% | 58% | 65% | 58% | 61% | 90% | 61% | ** | 57% | 66% | 57% | 64% | 51% | 61% | 47% | 63% | 51% | 79% | 62% | 59% | ** | 53% | 66% | 64% | 58% |
| Against Levin | 29% | 36% | 20% | 28% | 16% | 38% | 32% | 20% | 35% | 31% | ** | 16% | ** | 25% | ** | 42% | 23% | 26% | 41% | ** | ** | 25% | 41% | ** | 31% | 29% | 32% | 14% | 33% | 29% | 4% | 31% | ** | 15% | 20% | 38% | 12% | 34% | 33% | 48% | 25% | 40% | 8% | 14% | 35% | ** | 46% | 21% | 19% | 35% |
| Not Sure | 10% | 6% | 17% | 18% | 3% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 12% | 9% | ** | 26% | ** | 12% | ** | 3% | 17% | 11% | 3% | ** | ** | 13% | 3% | ** | 10% | 11% | 10% | 21% | 9% | 10% | 6% | 8% | ** | 28% | 14% | 6% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 5% | 13% | 9% | 13% | 24% | 6% | ** | 1% | 13% | 16% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Maryott Voters | 100% | 61% | 39% | 15% | 26% | 33% | 27% | 40% | 60% | 83% | 1% | 11% | 5% | 80% | 3% | 17% | 27% | 42% | 29% | 1% | 1% | 69% | 29% | 2% | 16% | 84% | 44% | 12% | 38% | 89% | 7% | 83% | 5% | 8% | 36% | 55% | 16% | 28% | 56% | 24% | 75% | 71% | 29% | 21% | 78% | 2% | 43% | 35% | 38% | 62% |
 | Do you cast your vote for Maryott enthusiastically? Or with reservations? |
| 190 Maryott Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Will You Vote | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 9.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By US Ma | In Perso | On Elect | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Enthusiastically | 66% | 68% | 64% | 57% | 58% | 75% | 69% | 57% | 72% | 65% | ** | 76% | ** | 63% | ** | 83% | 74% | 69% | 57% | ** | ** | 71% | 57% | ** | 53% | 69% | 68% | 45% | 76% | 71% | 40% | 73% | ** | 41% | 66% | 70% | 50% | 53% | 76% | 68% | 65% | 70% | 57% | 43% | 73% | ** | 75% | 71% | 46% | 79% |
| With Reservations | 15% | 18% | 10% | 19% | 22% | 7% | 16% | 21% | 11% | 14% | ** | 13% | ** | 16% | ** | 9% | 5% | 7% | 32% | ** | ** | 6% | 32% | ** | 23% | 13% | 19% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 58% | 12% | ** | 17% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 12% | 17% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 17% | 28% | 10% | ** | 13% | 7% | 23% | 10% |
| Not Sure | 19% | 14% | 27% | 25% | 21% | 18% | 15% | 22% | 17% | 21% | ** | 11% | ** | 21% | ** | 8% | 21% | 24% | 11% | ** | ** | 23% | 11% | ** | 23% | 18% | 12% | 44% | 14% | 19% | 2% | 16% | ** | 42% | 21% | 14% | 35% | 35% | 8% | 19% | 20% | 17% | 26% | 29% | 17% | ** | 13% | 22% | 31% | 12% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Maryott Voters | 100% | 61% | 39% | 15% | 26% | 33% | 27% | 40% | 60% | 83% | 1% | 11% | 5% | 80% | 3% | 17% | 27% | 42% | 29% | 1% | 1% | 69% | 29% | 2% | 16% | 84% | 44% | 12% | 38% | 89% | 7% | 83% | 5% | 8% | 36% | 55% | 16% | 28% | 56% | 24% | 75% | 71% | 29% | 21% | 78% | 2% | 43% | 35% | 38% | 62% |
 | Is yours more a vote FOR Levin? Or is yours more a vote AGAINST Maryott? |
| 254 Levin Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Will You Vote | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By US Ma | In Perso | On Elect | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| For Levin | 81% | 85% | 78% | 63% | 63% | 92% | 89% | 63% | 90% | 82% | ** | 79% | ** | 80% | 84% | 71% | ** | 63% | 83% | 85% | 73% | 65% | 83% | 81% | 73% | 82% | 82% | 74% | 86% | ** | 83% | ** | 83% | 66% | 86% | 80% | 88% | 70% | 83% | 76% | 82% | 86% | 67% | 60% | 84% | ** | 88% | 81% | 61% | 91% |
| Against Maryott | 11% | 11% | 12% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 8% | 17% | 8% | 12% | ** | 7% | ** | 12% | 10% | 17% | ** | 18% | 7% | 9% | 24% | 18% | 7% | 13% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 9% | ** | 11% | ** | 10% | 13% | 10% | 12% | 8% | 23% | 8% | 16% | 10% | 9% | 19% | 16% | 11% | ** | 10% | 12% | 21% | 6% |
| Not Sure | 8% | 5% | 10% | 17% | 24% | 0% | 3% | 20% | 2% | 7% | ** | 14% | ** | 8% | 6% | 12% | ** | 19% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 17% | 10% | 5% | 16% | 7% | 8% | 14% | 6% | ** | 7% | ** | 6% | 21% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 14% | 24% | 5% | ** | 2% | 7% | 18% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Levin Voters | 100% | 45% | 55% | 18% | 16% | 30% | 36% | 34% | 66% | 80% | 1% | 14% | 5% | 10% | 73% | 16% | 1% | 6% | 40% | 35% | 16% | 7% | 40% | 51% | 11% | 89% | 76% | 9% | 10% | 0% | 98% | 5% | 83% | 6% | 28% | 66% | 13% | 27% | 60% | 27% | 73% | 70% | 30% | 18% | 80% | 1% | 36% | 44% | 35% | 65% |
 | Do you cast your vote for Levin enthusiastically? Or with reservations? |
| 254 Levin Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Will You Vote | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By US Ma | In Perso | On Elect | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Enthusiastically | 70% | 72% | 68% | 29% | 60% | 82% | 83% | 44% | 83% | 71% | ** | 65% | ** | 51% | 75% | 60% | ** | 42% | 73% | 70% | 67% | 52% | 73% | 69% | 49% | 72% | 67% | 73% | 79% | ** | 71% | ** | 76% | 55% | 72% | 69% | 45% | 70% | 73% | 64% | 70% | 79% | 43% | 68% | 68% | ** | 67% | 69% | 38% | 86% |
| With Reservations | 22% | 24% | 21% | 61% | 20% | 13% | 11% | 42% | 12% | 22% | ** | 19% | ** | 45% | 17% | 28% | ** | 55% | 19% | 19% | 26% | 45% | 19% | 21% | 31% | 21% | 24% | 23% | 14% | ** | 21% | ** | 16% | 41% | 18% | 22% | 44% | 23% | 18% | 33% | 19% | 14% | 45% | 19% | 25% | ** | 27% | 22% | 45% | 10% |
| Not Sure | 8% | 5% | 11% | 10% | 19% | 5% | 6% | 14% | 5% | 7% | ** | 16% | ** | 4% | 8% | 12% | ** | 4% | 8% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 8% | 10% | 20% | 7% | 9% | 4% | 7% | ** | 8% | ** | 8% | 3% | 9% | 9% | 12% | 7% | 9% | 2% | 11% | 7% | 12% | 13% | 7% | ** | 6% | 9% | 17% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Levin Voters | 100% | 45% | 55% | 18% | 16% | 30% | 36% | 34% | 66% | 80% | 1% | 14% | 5% | 10% | 73% | 16% | 1% | 6% | 40% | 35% | 16% | 7% | 40% | 51% | 11% | 89% | 76% | 9% | 10% | 0% | 98% | 5% | 83% | 6% | 28% | 66% | 13% | 27% | 60% | 27% | 73% | 70% | 30% | 18% | 80% | 1% | 36% | 44% | 35% | 65% |
 | And in the November election for President, if you were filling out your ballot right now who would you vote for? Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Joe Biden? Or some other candidate? |
| 517 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Will You Vote | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | By US Ma | In Perso | On Elect | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Donald Trump (R) | 37% | 43% | 32% | 29% | 42% | 41% | 35% | 36% | 38% | 38% | ** | 32% | ** | 74% | 2% | 39% | 95% | 80% | 27% | 0% | 4% | 85% | 27% | 1% | 41% | 37% | 26% | 43% | 67% | 100% | 0% | 89% | 2% | 49% | 45% | 31% | 46% | 38% | 34% | 35% | 38% | 38% | 34% | 34% | 37% | ** | 43% | 32% | 35% | 39% |
| Joe Biden (D) | 58% | 54% | 62% | 59% | 54% | 55% | 64% | 56% | 59% | 58% | ** | 61% | ** | 20% | 97% | 51% | 5% | 18% | 66% | 96% | 96% | 13% | 66% | 96% | 47% | 60% | 69% | 53% | 30% | 0% | 100% | 6% | 97% | 34% | 51% | 65% | 45% | 55% | 63% | 54% | 59% | 58% | 59% | 63% | 57% | ** | 53% | 62% | 56% | 59% |
| Some Other Candidate | 1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 1% | ** | 3% | ** | 1% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | ** | 2% | 2% | 3% | 0% |
| Undecided | 3% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 3% | ** | 4% | ** | 5% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 12% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | ** | 3% | 4% | 6% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 19% | 21% | 30% | 29% | 40% | 60% | 82% | 1% | 12% | 5% | 39% | 40% | 20% | 11% | 20% | 36% | 20% | 8% | 31% | 36% | 28% | 14% | 86% | 61% | 12% | 22% | 37% | 58% | 36% | 47% | 8% | 34% | 58% | 15% | 28% | 57% | 24% | 75% | 65% | 35% | 21% | 76% | 2% | 35% | 41% | 42% | 58% |