Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26290
 
36 Days Out From North Carolina Senate Primaries, Budd, McCrory Lead Crowded GOP Field; Beasley Stands Alone at Front of Democratic Side:

5 weeks until votes are counted in North Carolina's 2022 primary elections for United States Senate, US Representative Ted Budd leads former Governor Pat McCrory by 10 points in the race to to be the Republican nominee, according to SurveyUSA's latest polling conducted exclusively for WRAL-TV in Raleigh.

Today it's Budd 33%, McCrory 23%; former US Representative Mark Walker trails with 7% of the vote. 3 other candidates combine to take another 4% of the vote; 8 additional candidates each get less than 0.5% of the vote. 33% of likely voters in the Republican primary are undecided today, 17 days before one-stop early voting begins.

Budd runs especially strongly among voters age 65+, where he takes 47% of the vote and leads McCrory by 30 points, and among very conservative voters, where he takes 43%. Budd runs slightly ahead of McCrory among men, but leads by 2:1 among women. Among those voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote in the primary, Budd leads McCrory by 22 points; among those who say they are likely to vote, McCrory leads by 8. Budd is 20 points ahead in greater Greensboro, 16 points ahead in Southern and Coastal NC, and 9 points ahead in greater Raleigh. The race is effectively tied in greater Charlotte, where McCrory served as mayor from 1995 to 2009.

Voters in the Democratic Primary appear to have coalesced behind former state Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley, who takes 37% of the vote today; 10 other candidates on the ballot are all in single digits. Among seniors, typically the most dependable voters in a primary, Beasley leads her closest opponent by 55 points, 57% to 2%. Among the youngest voters, Beasley leads her nearest opponents by 9 points, 14% to 5%, with 61% of 18 to 34 year-old likely voters reporting they are undecided. Overall, 49% of likely voters are undecided today – likely more of a signal that voters do not see this race as being a contested one than a signal that voters may begin to back another candidate.

North Carolina requires a second primary runoff election if no candidate exceeds the threshold of 30% +1 vote (before 2017, the threshold was 40% +1 vote); if the 30% +1 vote threshold is not met in either contest, a runoff – which must be demanded by the 2nd-place candidate in order to take place – would take place on July 26.
 
About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,500 North Carolina adults 04/06/2022 through 04/10/2022. Of the adults, 2,068 are registered to vote in North Carolina. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 593 as being likely to cast a ballot in the Republican primary and 523 as being likely to cast a ballot in the Democratic primary for United States Senate on or before the May 17 deadline. This research was conducted online among a representative cross section of North Carolina adults. Sample selected at random by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Adult respondents were weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home-ownership.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of North Carolina?
2500 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely Primary V2020 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainTrumpBidenHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Yes83%84%81%75%81%87%91%78%89%85%84%69%74%100%100%100%90%92%76%91%91%84%83%88%91%84%85%100%100%92%95%74%84%92%76%87%89%89%72%84%86%79%82%81%82%86%
No15%14%16%21%17%12%8%20%10%13%14%26%20%---9%7%21%8%8%15%14%11%8%15%13%--7%4%23%15%6%21%12%10%10%25%13%13%19%15%17%16%12%
Not Sure2%2%2%4%2%1%2%3%1%1%2%5%6%---1%1%2%0%1%1%3%2%1%1%2%--1%1%3%2%1%4%1%1%1%3%2%2%3%3%2%1%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%48%52%30%25%26%20%54%46%63%20%10%7%35%36%22%31%31%32%13%21%37%13%6%34%37%19%24%39%38%38%38%31%31%41%35%24%64%36%17%43%40%33%19%30%18%
 
2Are you registered to vote as a Republican? Democrat? Libertarian, Green, or member of another party? Or as an unaffiliated voter?
2068 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely Primary V2020 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainTrumpBidenHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Republican35%36%34%33%31%38%38%32%38%45%6%29%30%100%0%0%96%1%8%77%56%24%6%4%64%24%5%39%41%69%4%36%34%34%31%36%40%39%27%22%33%43%35%39%31%35%
Democrat36%31%40%34%43%33%34%38%33%24%76%34%31%0%100%0%2%96%7%10%20%37%69%81%16%37%73%39%37%5%71%37%36%35%41%33%32%32%44%55%36%27%35%32%37%39%
Other4%4%4%7%4%2%2%6%2%4%2%8%5%0%0%0%0%1%12%2%3%5%7%0%2%5%5%--4%2%3%6%3%3%5%3%4%4%2%5%4%5%4%3%4%
Unaffiliated22%26%19%18%22%25%24%20%25%26%11%18%31%0%0%100%1%2%69%9%20%31%16%14%16%31%16%22%22%22%21%19%22%26%21%23%24%23%21%16%23%25%21%21%26%19%
Not Sure3%3%3%7%1%2%1%4%2%1%5%10%3%0%0%0%0%1%5%2%2%3%2%1%2%3%1%--1%3%5%2%2%3%4%2%2%5%5%3%2%3%4%3%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%27%24%27%22%51%49%65%21%8%6%35%36%22%33%35%30%15%23%37%13%6%37%37%19%24%39%43%43%34%31%35%38%37%25%69%31%17%45%38%33%19%30%18%
 
3North Carolina will hold a primary election for United States Senate in May. Not everyone makes the time to vote in a primary. Would you say you are ... ?
1924 Republicans, Democrats, And Unaffiliated VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely Primary V2020 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainTrumpBidenHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Certain Not To Vote7%6%7%11%6%4%5%8%5%7%6%10%6%6%7%8%5%7%8%10%4%5%6%11%7%5%8%0%0%6%7%6%6%7%7%6%7%6%8%8%6%7%5%5%9%5%
Unlikely To Vote7%8%7%14%7%5%3%11%4%8%7%7%8%8%5%11%8%5%10%5%7%9%8%5%6%9%7%0%0%7%6%6%9%7%8%8%6%7%8%8%7%8%7%8%8%8%
Maybe 50% / 50%19%21%18%28%25%16%8%26%12%16%23%37%27%17%22%19%16%23%18%12%19%23%14%17%16%23%15%0%0%17%20%24%19%15%20%22%15%16%26%21%20%18%20%19%18%22%
Likely To Vote24%21%27%19%25%24%26%22%25%25%23%23%17%25%24%21%25%24%22%20%28%24%27%21%25%24%25%100%0%25%23%24%23%25%26%22%24%24%24%27%24%22%25%25%21%25%
100% Certain To Vote39%40%37%22%31%47%54%26%50%42%33%19%41%42%37%35%42%37%37%51%38%34%43%45%43%34%44%0%100%43%40%33%38%44%34%38%46%44%27%32%40%40%39%38%39%37%
Not Sure4%4%5%6%5%3%3%6%3%3%8%4%3%3%5%5%3%5%5%2%3%5%3%2%2%5%2%0%0%2%4%6%5%2%6%4%2%3%7%4%4%5%5%5%5%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans, Democrats, And Unaffiliated Voters100%49%51%25%25%28%23%49%51%66%20%7%6%38%39%24%35%37%27%15%23%37%12%7%39%37%19%24%39%44%44%33%31%36%38%36%26%69%31%17%45%38%33%19%30%18%
 
4Will you vote in the Republican primary? Or the Democratic primary?
262 Likely Primary Voters Who Are Unaffiliated OnlyAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely Primary V2020 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 7.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainTrumpBidenHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Republican42%42%42%22%35%45%52%30%48%44%9%70%34%****42%****42%77%79%30%3%**78%30%2%45%40%76%10%47%48%34%40%46%38%45%32%30%34%53%59%41%28%42%
Democratic27%29%24%50%17%25%25%30%25%26%37%16%33%****27%****27%5%7%26%74%**7%26%73%21%30%1%53%25%23%30%25%29%26%24%36%33%29%23%20%25%34%26%
Not Sure31%29%35%28%48%30%23%40%27%30%54%14%33%****31%****31%17%14%44%24%**15%44%25%34%30%23%37%29%29%35%35%25%36%31%33%38%37%24%22%34%38%33%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Primary Voters Who Are Unaffiliated Only100%59%41%14%22%33%31%35%65%77%8%6%9%0%0%100%2%2%93%8%27%47%10%5%34%47%15%38%62%47%44%26%30%43%33%38%29%77%23%9%47%44%32%15%38%15%
 
5If you were filling out your ballot in the Republican Primary for United States Senate today, who would you vote for? (Candidate names shown to respondents in random order; ranked here for ease of comprehension)
593 Likely Voters in Republican PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely Primary V2020 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainTrumpBidenHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Ted Budd33%32%34%17%22%32%47%20%39%35%****13%35%**26%37%**22%43%33%23%****38%23%**19%42%37%8%35%31%33%29%38%32%35%25%34%32%34%32%38%30%35%
Pat McCrory 23%28%17%17%27%29%17%23%23%21%****22%21%**30%21%**27%21%25%21%****23%21%**27%20%21%38%16%24%27%19%23%25%21%29%30%20%24%29%18%21%19%
Mark Walker7%8%6%9%9%6%7%9%6%8%****0%8%**3%7%**6%10%5%7%****7%7%**11%5%8%3%9%5%7%7%6%8%7%6%10%7%7%2%20%4%5%
Marjorie K. Eastman2%1%2%1%3%0%2%2%1%2%****0%1%**2%1%**2%1%1%3%****1%3%**1%2%1%3%2%1%2%2%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%0%1%4%0%
Charles Kenneth Moss1%1%0%4%0%0%0%2%0%1%****0%1%**0%0%**0%1%0%0%****0%0%**1%0%0%4%0%1%1%0%1%1%1%0%0%1%0%1%0%1%0%
Ms. Lee A. Brian1%0%1%4%0%0%0%2%0%0%****4%1%**0%0%**0%0%1%1%****0%1%**1%0%0%0%1%1%0%1%1%0%0%2%4%0%0%1%0%1%0%
David Flaherty 0%1%0%2%0%0%0%1%0%0%****0%0%**0%0%**0%0%0%1%****0%1%**0%1%0%0%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%
Benjamin E. Griffiths0%0%0%0%1%0%1%1%0%0%****0%0%**1%0%**1%1%0%0%****1%0%**0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%1%0%0%0%
Kenneth Harper, Jr. 0%0%1%2%0%0%0%1%0%0%****3%0%**0%0%**1%0%0%1%****0%1%**0%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%
Debora Tshiovo 0%1%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%****0%0%**0%0%**0%0%0%1%****0%1%**0%0%0%3%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%
Leonard L. Bryant 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%****0%0%**0%0%**0%0%0%0%****0%0%**0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%
Lichia Sibhatu0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%****0%0%**0%0%**0%0%0%0%****0%0%**0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Jen Banwart0%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%****0%0%**0%0%**0%0%0%1%****0%1%**0%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%
Drew Bulecza0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%****0%0%**0%0%**0%0%0%0%****0%0%**0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Undecided33%28%38%42%38%32%27%40%29%31%****58%32%**38%30%**41%21%34%42%****28%42%**40%29%31%39%35%36%28%39%28%32%33%30%18%36%33%33%22%37%40%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters in Republican Primary100%52%48%14%18%34%34%32%68%88%2%5%5%82%0%18%77%1%22%32%40%25%1%0%72%25%2%38%62%87%6%33%30%37%32%37%31%82%18%9%43%48%35%21%26%18%
 
6If you were filling out your ballot in the Democratic Primary for United States Senate today, who would you vote for? (Candidate names shown to respondents in random order; ranked here for ease of comprehension)
523 Likely Voters in Democratic PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistrationParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely Primary V2020 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratUnaffiliRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainTrumpBidenHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCharlottGreensboRaleigh Southern
Cheri Beasley37%33%40%14%32%40%57%24%47%42%33%25%29%**36%43%**37%40%**12%35%45%51%12%35%47%26%44%14%39%28%38%43%36%36%39%41%28%34%35%42%33%38%46%27%
Marcus W. Williams 4%6%1%5%9%1%1%7%1%2%2%28%5%**4%2%**4%3%**0%1%8%3%3%1%6%3%4%6%3%5%3%3%5%2%3%2%7%10%1%1%4%0%1%10%
Chrelle Booker2%2%2%3%3%2%2%3%2%2%4%0%0%**3%0%**3%0%**4%2%1%5%3%2%2%3%2%0%3%0%2%4%1%4%3%3%1%4%2%1%3%4%1%2%
James L. Carr, Jr. 2%3%0%3%2%1%1%3%1%3%0%0%0%**2%2%**1%2%**5%0%0%6%3%0%2%1%2%8%1%0%1%3%1%2%2%2%0%2%2%1%2%3%0%1%
Alyssia Rose-Katherine Hammond 2%1%2%5%1%0%0%3%0%2%1%0%0%**1%3%**1%2%**2%1%1%2%3%1%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%2%2%0%3%1%2%2%2%1%3%0%1%1%
Rett Newton 2%2%1%0%4%2%0%2%1%1%2%0%7%**2%0%**2%0%**3%1%1%4%2%1%2%1%2%4%2%1%1%3%1%1%4%2%2%2%2%1%1%2%2%1%
Constance (Lov) Johnson 1%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%1%2%1%0%3%**1%2%**1%2%**2%1%1%3%2%1%2%2%1%4%1%2%0%2%1%2%2%2%0%0%2%2%2%1%1%0%
Greg Antoine 1%2%0%4%0%1%0%2%1%1%1%0%0%**1%2%**1%3%**6%1%0%0%4%1%0%0%1%4%1%2%2%0%0%2%0%1%2%0%1%1%1%0%2%1%
Tobias LaGrone 1%2%0%3%1%0%0%2%0%1%1%0%0%**1%0%**1%0%**2%0%1%1%1%0%1%1%1%3%1%1%1%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%1%
Robert Colon 0%0%0%1%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%**0%0%**0%0%**0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%
B. K. Maginnis0%1%0%1%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%**0%0%**0%0%**0%1%0%0%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%1%1%1%0%0%0%1%0%
Undecided49%47%50%61%44%53%39%51%46%44%54%47%57%**49%47%**48%48%**64%56%41%25%67%56%36%60%42%55%48%59%50%41%52%50%42%46%55%43%51%49%48%50%44%56%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters in Democratic Primary100%44%56%20%25%29%26%45%55%52%37%5%5%0%87%13%1%81%18%4%9%40%29%16%12%40%45%38%62%6%89%29%30%42%42%32%26%67%33%25%47%28%33%16%31%19%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.