Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #9886
GOP No Longer Trails in KY4: In an election today, 8/10/2006, in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, Republican Geoff Davis and Democrat Ken Lucas tie, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Davis, who lost to Lucas in 2002 but was elected in 2004 after Lucas retired, gets 46% of the vote today. Lucas, who represented the 4th District from 1999 through 2004, gets 44%. The 2-point Davis advantage is within the poll's margin of sampling error and may or may not be statistically significant. But: unmistakable is that Davis has gained ground. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll three weeks ago, Lucas is down 6, Davis is up 5. Among Independents, Lucas had led by 11, now trails by 3. Among females, Lucas had led by 16, now 4. Both parties covet the House seat as they seek control of Congress. Heavy ad spending and a nationalized agenda mean poll results are likely to fluctuate further between now and election day, 11/7/2006.
Filtering: 1,000 adults from Kentucky's 4th Congressional District were interviewed 8/7/06 - 8/9/06. Of them, 844 were registered to vote. Of them, 656 were judged to be "likely voters". Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
If the election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Geoff Davis? Democrat Ken Lucas? Or some other candidate?
656 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyEducationIncomeBush Job Approva
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad Sch< $40K$40K - $> $80KApproveDisappro
Davis (R)46%50%41%39%52%47%40%46%******82%15%40%77%36%10%32%51%53%46%45%43%53%79%15%
Lucas (D)44%44%45%49%38%42%52%44%******13%75%37%16%55%77%55%40%39%43%46%49%38%15%72%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%23%32%26%19%96%2%1%1%41%45%13%36%40%12%26%35%20%20%32%37%24%43%51%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.