| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #24364 |
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In California's 21st Congressional District, Incumbent Republican Valadao Positioned to be Re-Elected to 4th Term, Leads by 2:1 Among White Voters, Enough to Offset Turnout by Latinos, Who Support Democratic Challenger Cox: Older, white voters propel incumbent Republican Congressman David Valadao to a likely 4th term in the U.S. House of Representatives, according to SurveyUSA polling for KFSN-TV in Fresno. At this hour, 2 weeks till early voting begins, 6 weeks till votes are counted, it's Valadao 50%, Democratic challenger T.J. Cox 39%. Valadao leads by 32 points among white voters, by 20 points among seniors. Valadao holds 88% of the Republican base, leads among independents by 31 points, and leads among affluent voters by 42 points. Cox draws even with Valadao among voters age 35 to 49, and has a 5-point advantage among Latino voters, who are 55% of the likely electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout modeling. Cox holds 79% of the Democratic base --- 14% of Democrats cross-over and vote for Valadao --- and leads among moderates 5:3. Among voters who say that the economy is the most important issue in how they will vote in 2018, Valadao leads Cox 2:1. Among voters who say immigration is the most important issue, Valadao leads Cox by 12 points. Among voters focused on education, Cox leads 3:1, but just 9% of district voters name education as their top concern in 2018. President Donald Trump's Net Job Approval in CA-21 is Plus 5 --- 48% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as President, 43% disapprove. Among those who approve of Trump, 87% vote for the Republican Valadao. Among those who disapprove of Trump, 79% vote for the Democrat Cox. About: SurveyUSA interviewed 850 adults 09/20/18 through 09/24/18. Of the adults, 668 are registered to vote in the state of California. Of the registered voters, 555 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to return a ballot on or before Election Day, 11/06/18. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (43% of adults, 59% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer, using voter-list sample provided by Aristotle of Washington DC. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (57% of adults, 41% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. CA-21 traces Interstate 5, Southwest of Fresno (excluding the city of Fresno) and Southwest of Visalia (excluding the city of Visalia), stretching from Mendota on the North to Bakersfield on the South. Valadao was first elected to Congress in 2012. He won by 13 points in 2016 and by 16 points in both 2014 and 2012. |
| 1 | If the election for US House of Representatives were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? Republican David Valadao? Or Democrat T.J. Cox? |
| 555 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Likely | Issue | Trump Approval | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Likely | Certain | Immigrat | Economy | National | Educatio | Agricult | Approve | Disappro | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| David Valadao (R) | 50% | 51% | 49% | 46% | 41% | 53% | 58% | 44% | 55% | 61% | 42% | 38% | 53% | 52% | 56% | 75% | 21% | 80% | 87% | 10% | 88% | 14% | 55% | 84% | 35% | 15% | 41% | 51% | 56% | 36% | 51% | 69% | 45% | 52% | 54% | 39% | 58% |
| T.J. Cox (D) | 39% | 40% | 39% | 37% | 41% | 43% | 38% | 39% | 40% | 29% | 47% | 40% | 39% | 40% | 29% | 21% | 64% | 14% | 5% | 79% | 7% | 79% | 24% | 11% | 54% | 77% | 44% | 37% | 38% | 48% | 38% | 27% | 41% | 36% | 38% | 42% | 38% |
| Undecided | 11% | 9% | 12% | 17% | 18% | 4% | 4% | 18% | 4% | 10% | 11% | 22% | 7% | 8% | 16% | 3% | 15% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 5% | 7% | 21% | 5% | 11% | 8% | 15% | 12% | 6% | 16% | 11% | 4% | 14% | 12% | 8% | 19% | 5% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 45% | 55% | 25% | 23% | 26% | 26% | 48% | 52% | 40% | 55% | 22% | 78% | 30% | 30% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 48% | 43% | 39% | 41% | 17% | 39% | 37% | 16% | 22% | 45% | 33% | 35% | 38% | 27% | 25% | 34% | 39% | 41% | 59% |
| 2 | Which one issue will be most important in determining how you vote in this election? Immigration? The economy? Terrorism? National security? Education? The environment? Agriculture? Or some other issue? |
| 555 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Likely | Issue | Trump Approval | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Likely | Certain | Immigrat | Economy | National | Educatio | Agricult | Approve | Disappro | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Immigration | 30% | 32% | 29% | 29% | 25% | 32% | 35% | 27% | 33% | 26% | 34% | 27% | 31% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 31% | 34% | 31% | 21% | 35% | 25% | 30% | 33% | 29% | 30% | 31% | 31% | 29% | 28% | 29% | 34% | 22% | 36% |
| Economy | 30% | 32% | 28% | 25% | 39% | 32% | 23% | 32% | 28% | 28% | 31% | 29% | 30% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 32% | 25% | 30% | 24% | 44% | 33% | 32% | 23% | 27% | 29% | 31% | 28% | 28% | 34% | 31% | 28% | 30% | 32% | 28% |
| Terrorism | 4% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 2% |
| National Security | 6% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 12% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 10% | 3% | 9% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 10% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 4% | 5% | 7% |
| Education | 9% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 7% | 5% | 11% | 6% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 5% | 10% | 4% | 12% | 7% | 4% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 12% | 4% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 13% | 6% |
| Environment | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Agriculture | 7% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 12% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 3% | 4% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 11% | 4% | 12% | 2% | 10% | 11% | 6% | 0% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 3% | 6% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 11% | 4% | 9% |
| Other | 6% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 13% | 2% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 18% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 11% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 7% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 2% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 8% | 3% | 8% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 45% | 55% | 25% | 23% | 26% | 26% | 48% | 52% | 40% | 55% | 22% | 78% | 30% | 30% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 48% | 43% | 39% | 41% | 17% | 39% | 37% | 16% | 22% | 45% | 33% | 35% | 38% | 27% | 25% | 34% | 39% | 41% | 59% |
| 3 | Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? |
| 555 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Likely | Issue | Trump Approval | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Likely | Certain | Immigrat | Economy | National | Educatio | Agricult | Approve | Disappro | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Approve | 48% | 50% | 47% | 46% | 40% | 51% | 57% | 43% | 54% | 61% | 39% | 37% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 73% | 27% | 73% | 100% | 0% | 85% | 15% | 48% | 82% | 32% | 16% | 42% | 50% | 53% | 37% | 52% | 60% | 49% | 49% | 50% | 36% | 57% |
| Disapprove | 43% | 41% | 45% | 40% | 51% | 41% | 41% | 45% | 41% | 34% | 50% | 50% | 41% | 44% | 37% | 19% | 52% | 24% | 0% | 100% | 9% | 78% | 35% | 13% | 57% | 79% | 45% | 42% | 41% | 53% | 40% | 32% | 41% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 39% |
| Not Sure | 8% | 8% | 9% | 14% | 9% | 8% | 3% | 12% | 5% | 5% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 4% | 11% | 7% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 7% | 16% | 5% | 12% | 5% | 13% | 8% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 14% | 5% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 45% | 55% | 25% | 23% | 26% | 26% | 48% | 52% | 40% | 55% | 22% | 78% | 30% | 30% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 48% | 43% | 39% | 41% | 17% | 39% | 37% | 16% | 22% | 45% | 33% | 35% | 38% | 27% | 25% | 34% | 39% | 41% | 59% |