Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21355
 
In CA-52, Incumbent Democrat Peters Swimming Upstream in Fight For 2nd Term; Republican Challenger DeMaio on Top:

In an election for U.S. House of Representatives from California's 52nd Congressional District today, 06/13/14, Republican challenger Scott DeMaio has a narrow advantage over 1st-term incumbent Democrat Scott Peters, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for the Union Tribune newspaper and KGTV-TV 10 News in San Diego.

DeMaio 51%, Peters 44%. That's the headline at this hour, 6 months till votes are counted, pointing to a possible Republican takeaway of this congressional seat. DeMaio holds 82% of the Republican base, and gets 88% support from conservatives. Peters holds 85% of the Democratic base, holds 87% of the liberal vote, and edges DeMaio among moderates 54% to 43%. DeMaio leads by 17 points among men, trails by 2 points among women, a 19-point Gender Gap. DeMaio leads decisively among the less educated and less affluent voters. Peters draws even among the most educated and most affluent voters. Union voters break heavily for Peters, non-union voters break for DeMaio. Voters split when asked which of the 2 candidates is more trustworthy. 45% say DeMaio, 41% say Peters.

DeMaio and Peters emerge from a 06/03/14 "Top-2" primary in which DeMaio finished behind Peters, in large part because DeMaio and other Republicans split the Republican vote. Today, those voters who backed Republican Kirk Jorgensen in the primary break 5:1 for DeMaio. Those voters who in 2012 backed Republican Brian Bilbray in CA-52, today back DeMaio 11:1. Those voters who in 2012 backed Democrat Peters, stick today with Peters 11:1.

The results of today's poll are similar to a SurveyUSA poll released one year ago, 06/13/13, which showed DeMaio atop Peters 48% to 39%. That poll was of registered voters; today's poll is of likely voters, so the two are not precisely apples-to-apples. Nevertheless, the broad themes remain consistent.

Research conducted 100% by telephone, using live operators to contact cell-phone respondents: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 registered voters from California's 52nd Congressional District using Registration Based Sample (RBS, aka: Voter List sample) from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 554 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a landline (home) telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: cell-phone respondents) were interviewed on their cell phone by live operators who hand-dialed the cell phones, qualified the respondent, interviewed the respondent and remained on the line until the completion of the survey.

 
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from California's 52nd Congressional District were today, who would you vote for? Republican Carl DeMaio? Or Democrat Scott Peters?
554 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyPrimary Vote2012 VoteUnionEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-4950-6465+WhiteHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalDeMaio (Peters (JorgenseBilbray Peters (YesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Carl DeMaio (R)51%55%47%48%49%53%52%46%46%82%11%57%88%43%8%97%2%70%87%11%34%55%52%58%48%50%57%48%43%52%
Scott Peters (D)44%38%49%45%46%41%43%54%38%12%85%37%6%54%87%2%97%13%8%85%59%41%41%36%46%42%38%47%43%44%
Undecided6%7%4%7%4%6%5%0%16%6%4%6%6%3%5%1%2%17%5%3%8%5%8%5%5%8%6%5%14%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%16%41%44%84%7%7%39%34%26%34%42%20%35%39%16%50%44%18%81%8%22%71%14%29%57%11%89%
 
2Which of the following issues is the most important to you in selecting a candidate? Integrity? Leadership? Stability? Business experience? Fiscal responsibility? The ability to reach across party lines? Or something else?
554 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyPrimary Vote2012 VoteUnionEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-4950-6465+WhiteHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalDeMaio (Peters (JorgenseBilbray Peters (YesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Integrity36%33%39%32%33%41%37%24%36%39%37%31%43%31%33%41%29%43%40%33%39%36%47%42%34%51%38%33%26%38%
Leadership12%12%13%14%12%13%12%10%13%14%13%9%12%13%15%15%14%6%13%13%8%14%18%12%12%18%13%11%11%13%
Stability1%1%1%2%0%1%1%0%3%2%0%1%1%1%1%0%1%3%1%1%1%1%0%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%
Business Experience3%3%2%4%4%1%2%7%3%4%0%4%3%3%0%4%1%2%3%2%5%2%2%2%3%0%4%2%5%2%
Fiscal Responsibility18%22%14%21%19%17%18%13%19%26%7%19%31%13%7%28%5%30%30%5%7%20%9%13%20%9%15%21%22%17%
Ability To Reach Across Party Lines20%17%23%15%21%21%20%36%7%9%31%21%3%31%29%8%37%7%7%34%27%18%16%20%21%17%19%22%15%21%
Something Else8%9%7%11%10%6%7%10%17%5%9%11%6%7%14%3%11%9%5%11%10%8%8%8%8%3%8%9%12%8%
Not Sure2%2%1%2%2%1%2%0%1%1%1%3%2%1%2%1%1%0%1%2%1%2%0%1%2%0%1%1%8%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%16%41%44%84%7%7%39%34%26%34%42%20%35%39%16%50%44%18%81%8%22%71%14%29%57%11%89%
 
3Carl DeMaio is openly gay. Does DeMaio's sexual orientation make you more likely to support him? Less likely to support him? Or does it make no difference either way?
554 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyPrimary Vote2012 VoteUnionEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-4950-6465+WhiteHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalDeMaio (Peters (JorgenseBilbray Peters (YesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
More Likely2%2%2%4%2%2%2%0%4%1%4%1%0%1%6%2%3%1%1%4%2%2%2%2%2%1%2%3%7%1%
Less Likely10%11%9%9%6%14%11%5%8%14%8%9%20%6%4%5%9%28%13%7%11%10%16%14%8%9%11%10%4%11%
No Difference88%86%89%87%92%84%87%95%88%85%88%90%79%92%89%93%88%71%86%89%87%88%83%84%89%90%86%87%89%87%
Not Sure0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%16%41%44%84%7%7%39%34%26%34%42%20%35%39%16%50%44%18%81%8%22%71%14%29%57%11%89%
 
4How important is each of these issues to you when selecting a candidate? Please use a scale of 1-10, where 10 means it is the single most important issue to you when selecting a candidate, and 1 means it is the single least important issue. Here's the first issue: Environmental protection. On a scale of 1-10, how important is environmental protection to you when selecting a candidate?
554 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyPrimary Vote2012 VoteUnionEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-4950-6465+WhiteHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalDeMaio (Peters (JorgenseBilbray Peters (YesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
116%18%13%9%16%18%17%10%9%24%6%17%27%9%9%21%8%27%25%6%14%16%13%19%15%14%13%17%9%17%
26%7%5%3%6%7%5%9%13%9%2%7%11%3%3%8%2%11%9%2%6%6%14%3%6%8%5%6%5%6%
37%9%5%9%7%6%7%0%8%8%2%11%10%7%2%9%2%11%11%1%6%7%5%5%8%4%6%8%7%7%
44%4%4%5%4%4%4%2%0%6%2%3%6%4%0%6%2%4%6%2%6%3%4%5%4%4%6%3%1%4%
518%19%17%17%18%18%18%19%23%26%14%10%23%19%7%26%13%18%23%14%12%19%26%15%17%21%16%16%15%18%
67%8%6%11%6%7%7%8%3%5%8%9%5%8%8%5%10%4%5%9%11%6%8%8%7%7%7%8%14%6%
78%8%8%11%8%7%7%17%4%6%12%7%4%10%13%5%10%4%4%11%14%7%7%8%8%4%8%9%12%7%
815%14%16%20%17%12%16%11%4%10%21%15%8%18%18%10%21%14%9%23%16%15%10%15%15%12%17%14%18%14%
97%5%9%6%7%8%7%5%14%3%12%7%3%6%17%4%11%6%4%12%4%8%5%5%8%6%8%7%3%8%
1013%8%17%10%12%14%11%18%23%4%22%13%3%16%21%6%22%3%4%21%11%13%7%17%12%20%13%11%16%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%16%41%44%84%7%7%39%34%26%34%42%20%35%39%16%50%44%18%81%8%22%71%14%29%57%11%89%
Averages5.65.16.16.05.65.55.56.16.14.47.25.54.06.27.14.67.04.34.27.25.65.65.05.85.65.85.95.56.25.5
 
5OK, next: Transportation Issues. How important are transportation issues when selecting a candidate?
554 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyPrimary Vote2012 VoteUnionEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-4950-6465+WhiteHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalDeMaio (Peters (JorgenseBilbray Peters (YesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
110%11%10%7%11%11%10%9%8%12%8%12%15%7%8%12%8%15%13%7%7%10%12%16%8%16%10%9%6%11%
28%9%7%6%7%9%8%11%6%10%5%9%14%3%8%9%6%12%11%5%7%8%8%3%10%7%7%9%6%8%
36%8%4%1%6%8%7%9%0%8%2%9%11%5%3%9%3%10%10%2%4%7%3%5%7%5%5%7%4%7%
46%6%6%6%6%6%6%11%5%6%5%9%6%7%8%6%6%4%5%6%5%7%2%5%7%2%7%7%10%6%
527%26%28%36%26%26%28%25%21%31%26%23%25%32%24%29%26%31%29%27%33%27%35%28%27%31%24%28%19%29%
613%14%12%16%15%11%13%9%18%16%13%10%12%15%13%14%15%7%12%14%17%12%14%10%14%13%12%13%17%13%
78%9%8%8%9%8%8%3%16%5%11%9%4%10%12%7%11%6%7%10%6%9%5%6%9%4%10%8%14%7%
811%8%14%14%11%11%11%19%8%6%18%10%5%14%14%7%15%4%6%18%9%12%16%12%10%14%12%10%19%10%
96%6%6%6%5%6%5%4%11%5%5%8%7%4%6%6%5%10%6%6%9%5%4%8%5%3%9%5%3%6%
103%3%4%1%3%5%3%0%7%2%7%2%2%3%5%3%6%1%2%5%2%4%2%5%3%5%5%3%2%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%16%41%44%84%7%7%39%34%26%34%42%20%35%39%16%50%44%18%81%8%22%71%14%29%57%11%89%
Averages5.25.05.45.45.25.15.14.95.94.75.95.04.45.65.64.95.74.64.75.85.45.25.25.35.25.15.55.15.65.1
 
6Next, Veterans Affairs.
554 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyPrimary Vote2012 VoteUnionEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-4950-6465+WhiteHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalDeMaio (Peters (JorgenseBilbray Peters (YesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
17%5%9%7%7%7%6%13%13%7%8%5%5%6%9%5%9%10%6%7%9%6%13%6%6%7%9%6%1%8%
25%7%4%6%7%3%6%3%5%4%5%8%5%4%8%4%7%5%5%6%8%5%0%4%6%3%3%7%6%5%
35%6%5%5%7%4%6%4%4%4%3%9%5%6%5%5%5%7%5%5%1%7%2%5%6%5%5%7%5%6%
45%6%4%6%5%5%5%0%11%2%7%6%3%6%6%3%6%4%3%6%7%5%7%3%5%2%4%7%4%5%
517%19%15%21%15%17%18%21%10%18%22%11%19%16%18%17%19%15%18%18%24%16%20%10%19%15%14%20%9%18%
66%6%6%3%5%8%6%2%6%5%7%6%4%6%9%6%7%4%6%7%4%7%8%5%6%7%6%6%2%7%
712%11%13%15%13%10%12%12%8%13%11%10%13%12%8%15%7%13%14%9%14%11%10%11%12%7%16%10%24%10%
813%15%12%12%13%14%14%9%15%17%8%15%17%12%11%15%10%15%16%10%11%14%15%18%12%16%12%13%12%13%
915%12%18%12%14%16%14%15%13%15%15%15%16%14%14%18%13%11%14%16%12%15%12%19%14%18%16%13%10%15%
1014%13%15%12%14%15%13%21%13%15%14%15%13%17%11%11%17%17%12%17%10%15%15%19%13%20%16%12%28%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%16%41%44%84%7%7%39%34%26%34%42%20%35%39%16%50%44%18%81%8%22%71%14%29%57%11%89%
Averages6.46.36.66.26.36.66.46.56.06.76.26.46.66.56.06.76.26.36.46.46.06.56.37.06.26.96.66.17.36.3
 
7Next, Abortion.
554 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyPrimary Vote2012 VoteUnionEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-4950-6465+WhiteHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalDeMaio (Peters (JorgenseBilbray Peters (YesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
122%24%21%16%20%27%23%18%23%25%17%26%22%21%23%26%19%25%25%20%24%22%24%21%23%25%22%22%15%23%
28%11%5%11%8%7%8%15%2%9%7%7%10%8%5%9%6%9%10%5%12%7%11%5%9%7%5%11%6%8%
35%5%4%5%4%6%5%4%4%3%3%8%4%5%4%6%3%5%5%3%4%5%2%5%5%5%6%4%8%4%
43%3%3%4%3%2%3%3%3%5%2%2%4%4%1%3%2%3%4%2%4%2%4%3%3%1%4%3%2%3%
512%13%11%10%11%14%12%7%18%13%11%12%11%15%8%16%10%10%13%11%15%12%10%12%12%7%10%13%13%12%
64%5%3%5%4%4%4%11%2%4%4%6%6%4%2%3%3%4%5%3%1%5%5%2%5%6%2%5%7%4%
77%7%7%15%6%5%7%12%4%6%9%5%7%8%6%6%10%5%5%10%10%6%6%6%7%8%7%7%9%7%
812%12%12%14%13%10%10%18%17%13%12%10%10%15%9%10%14%8%11%13%7%13%10%17%10%10%12%12%12%12%
912%10%14%8%14%12%13%5%9%8%15%15%11%10%18%9%16%12%10%15%8%13%11%12%13%11%17%11%6%13%
1015%10%20%13%17%13%15%7%18%14%20%9%15%10%24%11%18%17%12%17%14%15%17%18%13%20%14%13%22%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%16%41%44%84%7%7%39%34%26%34%42%20%35%39%16%50%44%18%81%8%22%71%14%29%57%11%89%
Averages5.55.06.05.65.85.25.55.15.85.26.25.15.45.46.24.96.25.35.06.05.05.65.45.95.45.75.75.36.05.4
 
8Next, Same sex marriage.
554 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyPrimary Vote2012 VoteUnionEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-4950-6465+WhiteHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalDeMaio (Peters (JorgenseBilbray Peters (YesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
127%30%24%23%25%31%28%27%27%33%18%32%31%25%23%32%20%33%33%22%21%29%33%24%28%34%32%23%25%28%
28%10%5%7%7%8%8%12%2%6%9%8%6%9%6%8%8%3%8%7%10%7%7%5%8%6%6%9%9%8%
35%6%5%4%6%5%5%2%9%6%1%8%7%4%2%6%3%7%7%2%6%5%2%6%5%6%4%5%5%5%
43%4%3%4%3%3%3%0%6%4%2%4%3%5%1%4%2%4%4%3%4%3%0%5%3%8%3%3%4%3%
515%16%13%16%13%17%14%14%22%18%14%13%18%17%8%16%14%17%16%13%20%14%19%14%15%14%14%16%13%15%
65%5%6%4%5%6%5%3%3%4%7%4%5%5%7%4%6%7%5%5%4%5%6%5%5%6%5%6%2%5%
77%4%10%9%8%5%8%7%1%4%10%8%5%9%9%7%8%5%5%10%13%6%9%8%7%6%8%8%9%7%
810%8%11%14%11%6%9%18%8%7%14%7%7%11%10%9%13%3%7%13%5%11%3%9%10%4%8%10%7%10%
99%9%9%6%10%9%9%9%4%7%12%8%8%5%20%5%13%12%6%12%11%9%3%7%10%6%11%9%5%9%
1011%9%13%13%11%10%10%7%18%11%14%8%10%11%13%8%14%10%8%13%8%11%18%17%8%12%9%11%21%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%16%41%44%84%7%7%39%34%26%34%42%20%35%39%16%50%44%18%81%8%22%71%14%29%57%11%89%
Averages4.94.55.45.25.24.64.95.05.04.55.84.44.64.95.84.35.74.64.35.64.94.94.85.44.84.44.85.15.24.9
 
9Which one of these issues is the most important challenge facing America? Unemployment or the lack of job growth? Taxation? Climate change? The rise of China as an economic and military power? International challenges? Terrorism? Education? Or something else?
554 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyPrimary Vote2012 VoteUnionEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-4950-6465+WhiteHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalDeMaio (Peters (JorgenseBilbray Peters (YesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Unemployment36%37%35%29%34%40%34%41%40%37%31%40%38%38%28%40%34%28%38%33%31%37%37%44%33%46%43%31%32%36%
Taxation15%20%10%19%17%12%15%11%18%24%4%16%25%12%5%24%4%23%26%4%11%16%12%15%15%11%10%19%12%15%
Climate Change11%10%12%14%12%9%11%7%11%2%23%9%1%11%29%3%20%3%2%21%17%10%2%5%13%15%11%10%9%11%
Rise Of China4%4%5%1%5%5%4%8%4%3%6%5%3%7%2%4%6%2%4%5%5%4%11%3%4%3%4%5%0%5%
International Challenges6%6%6%5%5%6%6%0%4%8%4%5%7%5%5%6%3%11%7%4%9%5%4%5%6%5%6%6%1%6%
Terrorism7%6%9%4%6%9%8%6%0%12%4%5%10%7%2%11%3%11%11%3%4%8%12%5%8%8%7%7%8%7%
Education12%8%17%19%12%11%12%23%13%7%21%8%4%14%22%4%22%9%5%20%13%12%8%14%12%3%12%14%21%11%
Something Else6%6%5%4%6%6%5%3%10%6%3%8%8%4%4%6%4%12%6%5%5%6%9%7%5%6%5%6%11%5%
Not Sure3%3%3%5%3%2%4%0%0%2%3%5%3%3%3%2%4%2%2%4%4%3%4%1%3%3%2%3%5%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%16%41%44%84%7%7%39%34%26%34%42%20%35%39%16%50%44%18%81%8%22%71%14%29%57%11%89%
 
10Who do you believe is more trustworthy? Carl DeMaio? Or Scott Peters?
554 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyPrimary Vote2012 VoteUnionEducationIncomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-4950-6465+WhiteHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalDeMaio (Peters (JorgenseBilbray Peters (YesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandline
Carl DeMaio45%49%42%40%43%49%46%39%42%71%9%55%76%38%9%92%1%57%78%11%30%48%47%52%43%43%54%42%30%47%
Scott Peters41%38%44%39%44%39%40%51%36%15%79%32%11%49%81%1%90%20%12%76%52%39%33%37%43%44%33%45%35%42%
No Difference14%13%14%22%13%11%14%10%22%15%12%13%13%14%10%6%9%23%10%13%18%13%20%11%14%13%13%13%34%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%16%41%44%84%7%7%39%34%26%34%42%20%35%39%16%50%44%18%81%8%22%71%14%29%57%11%89%