Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10321
Democrat Patrick Off To Fast Start Against GOP Healey for MA Governor: Bathed in publicity from his 9/19/06 Primary Win, untouched as yet by any Republican counter-punch, Democrat Deval Patrick jumps out of the starting blocks with a material but not necessarily insurmountable advantage over Republican Kerry Healey, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WBZ-TV Boston. 1,000 Massachusetts adults were contacted in the 48 hours immediately following Patrick's decisive win over two Democratic challengers. 608 of them were identified as likely to vote in the November General Election. Patrick was the lead story on TV newscasts and on the front page of all of the state's newspapers during the field period for the survey. 911,000 Massachusetts Democrats had just voted in a fiercely-fought, highly publicized Democratic primary. That's 13 times as many as the 70,000 Republicans who had voted in the Republican primary. Energized, 87% of MA Democrats tell SurveyUSA they vote Democrat, in an election today. By contrast, on the campaign's first two days, 65% of Republicans vote Republican. 27% of Republicans cross over and vote for the Democrat. When the demographic groups are tallied, Patrick gets 64% of the likely vote, Healey gets 25%. Healey leads 5:3 among Massachusetts conservatives, but there are few of them. Patrick leads 3:1 among the state's Moderates and 9:1 among the state's Liberals. Independent Christy Mihos, who did not have a Primary challenger, gets 5% of the vote in this early glimpse. The 7-week campaign is just begun, and volatility can be expected as each party re-orients to face the other. Election day is 11/7/06.
Filtering: 1,000 Massachusetts adults were interviewed 9/19/06 - 9/21/06. Of them, 869 were registered to vote. Of them, 608 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters. Interviewing on Primary day, 9/19/06, began when polls closed at 8:00 pm.
If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Kerry Healey? Democrat Deval Patrick? Green-Rainbow candidate Grace Ross? Independent Christy Mihos? Or some other candidate?
608 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyEducationIncomeBush Job ApprovaDayRegionGeocodingGeneration *
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad Sch<$40K$40K - $>$80KApproveDisappro9/199/209/21W/CentraBoston ASE MA anUrbanSuburbanGen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Healey (R)25%33%19%20%29%23%27%26%26%****65%7%30%54%23%9%19%25%33%22%22%18%31%65%8%26%22%27%21%26%28%16%28%18%28%25%21%27%
Patrick (D)64%57%70%73%61%63%61%63%74%****27%87%54%31%66%84%67%64%57%70%64%73%59%23%82%59%68%64%65%65%61%75%61%73%64%63%67%61%
Ross (G)1%2%0%2%0%0%0%1%0%****0%0%2%1%0%2%0%0%2%0%3%0%0%0%1%0%2%0%1%1%0%0%1%6%0%0%0%0%
Mihos (I)5%4%6%2%4%7%6%5%0%****3%3%8%6%6%2%10%6%4%3%4%4%5%8%4%3%5%5%6%4%6%5%5%3%3%6%7%6%
Composition of Likely Voters100%44%56%21%32%27%20%89%5%3%3%17%46%37%19%51%26%12%29%27%33%18%35%41%26%68%15%35%50%21%57%22%21%79%8%27%27%18%20%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.