Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13120
 
CA GOP PRIMARY -- Huckabee Begins to Stick Wrench in Giuliani 'Big State' Strategy: In a Republican Presidential Primary in California today, 12/17/07, seven weeks to the vote, Rudolph Giuliani wins, but his margin of victory, which two months ago was 21 points, is today 8 points, according to SurveyUSA's 9th pre-primary CA tracking poll, conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno. Giuliani's strategy, which is to concede early primary "small" states such as Iowa and New Hampshire but to sweep big states such as CA, FL and NY on February 5, had been since May 2007 looking good, except for a momentary blip caused when Fred Thompson announced his candidacy on Jay Leno. But now, Giuliani's support is eroding, from 39% two months ago, to 28% today. Several candidates are making inroads, but none more so than Mike Huckabee, who finished 5th with 8% support 6 weeks ago, and who finishes 2nd with 20% support today. Mitt Romney at 16%, John McCain at 14% and Fred Thompson at 13% are effectively tied for 3rd place. Among Conservative Republicans and Pro-Life Republicans, Huckabee and Giuliani are effectively tied, Giuliani down from 14 points in both groups, compared to two months ago. Among Pro-Choice Republicans, Giuliani still leads 2nd place John McCain 2:1.
 
CA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY -- Obama Starts to Crowd Clinton, Slicing Her Lead from 37 Points to 19: In a Democratic Presidential Primary in CA today, 12/17/07, seven weeks to the vote, Hillary Clinton wins convincingly, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno. But: momentum is with Barack Obama, who finishes 2nd with 30% today, his strongest showing to date in 9 SurveyUSA pre-primary tracking polls. Clinton led by 37 points two months ago, leads by 19 points today. The movement among male voters tells the story of the contest: Clinton and Obama were effectively tied among male Democrats for the first 5 SurveyUSA tracking polls. Then, in October, males moved to Clinton and by November, she was 24 points atop Obama among men. At the time, SurveyUSA wrote that men were jumping aboard the Clinton Express. Today, men have come back to Obama and today he has a nominal advantage among that group, 38% to 33%. Clinton leads 4:1 among the oldest voters; Obama and Clinton are effectively tied among the youngest voters. Click-on the Triangle T to see interactive Tracking Graphs with pull-down windows for each Demographic sub-population, a SurveyUSA exclusive.
 
Filtering: 2,100 state of CA adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 12/14/07 through 12/16/07. Of them, 1,764 were registered to vote. Of them, 497 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in a Republican Primary, 741 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in a Democratic Primary.
 
If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for ...(names rotated) Rudy Giuliani? Mike Huckabee? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Fred Thompson? Or some other Republican?
497 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderRaceParty AffiliationIdeology2004 VoteAbortionGlobal WarmingStem Cell ResearLabor UnionSame Sex MarriagGun OwnershipMilitary DraftWho Is Winning WBush in HistoryPassport CurrentRegionAge<50 / 50+
Credibility Interval: ± 4.5 pct pointsMaleFemaleWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalBushKerryPro-lifePro-choiRealMade-upForAgainstYesNoSupportOpposeYesNoNeedNo NeedUnited STerrorisOne Of AAn AveraOne Of TYesNoCentral Greater Inland EBay Area18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+
Giuliani28%27%30%28%**28%33%29%**18%26%35%30%29%26%24%35%31%26%33%22%23%31%32%28%28%31%29%29%30%25%29%29%27%29%29%23%30%24%37%20%35%30%21%30%26%
Huckabee20%19%21%20%**17%21%18%**31%23%17%9%20%15%25%12%17%23%14%31%23%18%12%22%21%18%19%20%20%19%21%19%20%16%24%26%19%18%13%28%16%16%23%20%19%
McCain14%13%14%14%**12%16%13%**8%11%20%9%13%22%12%16%18%8%17%9%16%13%18%12%13%13%16%12%14%10%13%13%14%15%11%12%11%20%15%11%14%12%16%13%14%
Romney16%14%19%18%**8%14%16%**24%17%13%13%16%22%17%13%14%18%15%14%14%16%13%16%14%18%17%14%15%17%18%16%12%15%16%19%14%19%10%20%11%16%21%14%19%
Thompson13%17%7%10%**22%10%14%**10%17%7%7%15%3%15%11%9%19%13%15%18%12%6%15%13%12%13%14%15%13%16%15%6%17%8%14%12%13%17%10%16%13%12%14%12%
Other7%8%5%7%**10%3%7%**6%4%6%31%5%11%5%10%8%5%6%7%4%8%16%5%9%5%6%7%4%15%2%5%18%4%11%7%11%4%3%11%6%7%5%8%6%
Undecided3%2%4%3%**2%3%2%**4%2%2%1%2%1%2%3%3%0%2%2%2%3%2%2%2%3%0%3%2%2%0%3%3%3%1%0%4%1%5%0%2%6%1%1%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%63%37%69%3%18%10%86%4%8%59%30%7%82%8%58%40%52%44%59%33%24%75%20%77%47%49%29%67%70%23%26%51%21%57%41%26%37%21%16%17%38%24%21%55%45%
 
If the Democratic Primary were today, would you vote for... Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? John Edwards? Or some other Democrat?
741 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderRaceParty AffiliationIdeology2004 VoteAbortionGlobal WarmingStem Cell ResearLabor UnionSame Sex MarriagGun OwnershipMilitary DraftWho Is Winning WBush in HistoryPassport CurrentRegionAge<50 / 50+
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemaleWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalBushKerryPro-lifePro-choiRealMade-upForAgainstYesNoSupportOpposeYesNoNeedNo NeedUnited STerrorisOne Of AAn AveraOne Of TYesNoCentral Greater Inland EBay Area18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+
Clinton49%33%60%44%39%66%37%**50%34%42%54%43%41%49%54%47%48%50%47%55%43%51%46%54%42%50%40%50%43%53%**43%49%48%49%51%49%52%45%46%44%49%60%45%53%
Obama30%38%24%27%55%20%42%**28%47%26%25%37%31%28%23%32%30%29%31%20%32%29%33%23%30%30%33%29%32%28%**26%30%30%28%23%29%28%35%42%34%23%15%37%20%
Edwards14%19%10%19%4%8%12%**14%11%19%14%12%17%15%14%14%14%14%14%15%15%13%13%16%19%13%16%14%16%13%**19%13%15%13%16%15%15%12%7%14%18%17%11%17%
Other5%8%3%6%2%2%9%**5%8%9%3%7%9%5%5%5%5%4%5%8%7%5%4%6%6%5%10%4%5%4%**9%5%3%8%7%4%4%6%2%5%9%6%3%8%
Undecided3%2%3%3%1%4%0%**3%1%5%3%1%2%3%3%3%3%2%3%1%3%3%3%1%3%3%1%3%3%2%**3%3%3%2%4%3%1%2%3%3%2%2%3%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%42%58%51%8%27%14%5%86%8%11%49%34%12%74%20%76%89%8%86%9%34%64%61%32%22%76%21%75%29%50%2%13%84%59%39%15%39%16%30%25%31%27%17%56%44%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.