In a Republican Primary for President of the United States today, 03/19/20, eight weeks until ballots are counted, Mitt Romney defeats Rick Santorum 38% to 31%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KATU-TV in Portland. Newt Gingrich today gets 14%, Ron Paul gets 9%.

Romney leads by 4 points among respondents interviewed on their home telephone, but leads by 20 points among respondents not reachable on a home phone. Santorum leads 2:1 among evangelicals, but Romney leads 3:1 among those who are not evangelical. Santorum leads by 8 among women, but Romney leads by 18 among men. The two are effectively tied among voters age 50+ ... but Romney leads by 17 points among voters age 18 to 49. Romney leads among moderate Republicans by 16 points, Santorum leads by 14 points among "very conservative" Republicans. Santorum leads among pro-life voters, Romney leads among pro-choice voters. Romney leads by 10 in greater Portland. The two run effectively even in the rest of the state.

Looking ahead to possible November general-election match-ups, incumbent President Barack Obama keeps Oregon blue, defeating Santorum and Paul by 9, defeating Romney by 11 and Gingrich by 20. In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain by 16 points in Oregon.

Cell phone and home phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,840 Oregon adults 03/14/12 through 03/19/12. Of the adults, 1,615 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 463 were likely to vote int he 05/15/12 Republican primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents unreachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. In this research, cell respondents and home phone respondents vote differently. Cell respondents are 16 points more likely to vote Romney than are home-phone respondents. Cell respondents are 11 points more likely to vote for Obama than for Romney, 14 points more likely to vote for Obama than for Paul.