Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14216
Twelve Weeks Out, McCain Makes Gains in Washington State: Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 51% to 44% in an election for President of the United States in Washington State today, 08/13/08, 83 days until the election, according to this latest SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle and KATU-TV in Portland Oregon. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, when Obama led by 16 points, Obama is down by 4 points; McCain is up 5. Among women, Obama had led by 22, now leads by 15. Among men, Obama had lead by 10, now trails by 1. Among voters younger than Obama, Obama's lead has fallen from 19 points to 10 points. Among voters older than John McCain, Obama's lead has fallen from 24 points to 8 points. Among those voters in between the two candidates' ages, Obama had led by 10, now leads by 4. Obama has lost ground and McCain has gained ground among every demographic group. One month ago, 14% of Republicans crossed over to vote for Democrat Obama; today, 6% do so. McCain now gets 90% of Republican votes. Obama is up slightly among Democrats; one month ago, he took 87% of Democratic votes; today, he takes 91%. One month ago, Obama led by 7 among independents; today, he trails by 2. In Metro Seattle, Obama led by 29, now leads by 15. In the remainder of Western Washington, Obama had led by 11, now leads by 8. In Eastern Washington, McCain had led by 11, now leads by 13.
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 Washington adults 08/11/08 through 08/12/08; of the adults, 875 identified themselves as being registered to vote in Washington state. Of the registered voters, 718 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election. 37 of Washington's 39 counties vote exclusively by mail; ballots must be postmarked no later than Election Day, 11/04/08. Washington has 11 Electoral College votes. John Kerry carried Washington by 7 points in 2004; Al Gore carried Washington by 6 points in 2000.
If you were filling out your ballot for President right now, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?
718 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat< $50K> $50KWestern Eastern Metro Se
McCain (R)44%48%40%38%47%43%46%43%44%43%43%45%45%****22%90%8%45%83%37%8%42%45%59%39%32%70%29%39%46%45%10%21%15%93%****91%37%46%44%53%40%
Obama (D)51%47%55%59%49%50%49%53%50%53%51%49%50%****72%6%91%43%14%57%89%52%51%36%57%62%25%66%52%52%49%87%74%80%5%****5%57%50%52%40%55%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%20%31%28%20%52%48%45%11%44%86%3%3%8%28%40%23%27%39%21%48%52%35%27%39%34%63%30%66%42%7%13%10%7%5%4%6%32%68%26%19%55%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.