Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22313
 
Bevin, Comer, Heiner Stagger Toward Finish Line in KY Gubernatorial Republican Primary; No Clear Favorite 1 Week Till Votes Are Counted:

One week till Kentucky Republicans vote in a primary for Governor, candidates Matt Bevin, Hal Heiner, and James Comer are effectively even, according to the Bluegrass Poll released by The Louisville Courier-Journal, The Lexington Herald Leader, WHAS-TV in Louisville and WKYT-TV in Lexington.

There is no clear favorite in the contest at this hour, given the inherent limitations of a sample size of 517 likely Republican primary voters. The 3 candidates may finish one, two, three in any order. Every Republican primary vote will be critical to the emergent victor, who will face Democrat Jack Conway in a general election for Governor on 11/03/15.

Nominally: Bevin is backed by 27% of GOP primary voters ... but his support is disproportionately young ... and primary voters are disproportionately old. Bevin may under-perform these numbers. Bevin leads among those who identify themselves as "very" conservative. Comer is backed by 26% of GOP primary voters. His support is old; he leads among seniors. Heiner is backed by 25% of GOP primary voters. His backers disproportionately identify themselves as "strong" Republicans.

Western KY votes strongly for Comer. Greater Louisville narrowly prefers Heiner to Bevin. North Central KY overwhelmingly prefers Bevin. Eastern KY splits between Comer and Heiner. The least affluent and most affluent Republican primary voters back Comer. Middle-income Republican Primary voters back Bevin.

Presumptive Democratic nominee Jack Conway, who defeats Geoff Young 5:1 in next week's primary, has convinced a majority of Democratic primary voters that he neither would side too much with the coal industry (11%), nor side too much with environmentalists (12%), but instead would adopt a balanced approach (58%). Similarly, among Democratic primary voters, 11% say Conway is too conservative, 13% say Conway is too liberal, but an overwhelming majority of Democratic primary voters (63%) say Conway's political ideology is "just about right."

In hypothetical head-to-head match-ups for the 11/03/15 general election for Kentucky Governor, among registered KY voters today:

* Conway defeats Comer by 6 points, 45% to 39%.
* Conway defeats Heiner by 12 points, 48% to 36%.
* Conway defeats Bevin by 11 points, 48% to 37%.

Looking ahead to 2016, Republicans primary voters like the Favorite Son, as follows:

* Rand Paul, 26%.
* Mike Huckabee, 15%.
* Jeb Bush, 12%.
* Scott Walker 10%.
* All other 2016 Republican presidential candidates are in single digits.

In a general election in 2016, where the only two names on the ballot were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand Paul, Bluegrass voters split, 45% for Paul, 45% for Clinton. Election Day is in 78 weeks.

About this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 state of KY adults 05/05/15 through 05/10/15. Of the adults, 2,104 were registered to vote in the state of Kentucky. Of the registered voters, 517 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/19/15 Republican Primary, 707 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/19/15 Democratic Primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
 
1If the Republican Primary for Kentucky Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, which Republican candidate would you vote for? James Comer? Hal Heiner? Matt Bevin? Or Will T. Scott?
517 Certain To Vote in Republican PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistratiParty Affiliation, Regardless Of RegistrationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegions
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineW KYLouisvilN CentraE KY
Comer26%30%20%17%22%29%30%20%29%26%**26%**29%26%19%********23%31%20%****28%26%24%29%21%29%16%28%39%18%22%27%
Heiner25%25%25%23%24%24%28%24%26%24%**25%**30%21%26%********29%23%22%****28%19%29%24%26%27%22%26%18%36%17%27%
Bevin27%25%30%31%30%27%24%30%26%27%**27%**26%24%36%********34%25%24%****22%31%28%24%32%24%22%29%24%30%39%14%
Scott8%10%6%7%12%6%8%10%7%9%**8%**6%11%6%********5%7%16%****7%8%9%6%10%8%9%8%5%6%7%15%
Undecided14%9%19%23%12%14%10%16%12%14%**14%**9%18%13%********8%15%17%****15%16%11%18%11%13%31%9%14%10%14%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Certain To Vote in Republican Primary100%53%47%14%24%34%28%38%62%95%2%100%0%40%37%19%3%1%0%0%33%42%22%2%0%24%33%43%34%38%28%19%81%20%30%25%24%
 
2Thinking ahead now to the 2016 Republican primary for President of the United States ... if the 2016 Presidential Primary were held today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
517 Certain To Vote in Republican PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistratiParty Affiliation, Regardless Of RegistrationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegions
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineW KYLouisvilN CentraE KY
Ted Cruz6%7%6%8%5%8%5%6%7%5%**6%**8%6%7%********11%5%2%****8%7%5%7%6%6%3%7%5%9%7%4%
Jeb Bush12%13%11%8%10%11%17%10%14%12%**12%**15%14%2%********11%12%15%****18%9%12%14%10%13%5%14%11%12%12%14%
Chris Christie2%3%1%0%1%1%4%1%3%2%**2%**1%4%0%********2%1%3%****3%1%2%0%2%4%1%2%2%1%4%1%
Rick Santorum2%2%1%0%2%2%2%1%2%1%**2%**2%2%1%********3%2%0%****0%3%1%1%2%2%3%1%1%2%2%1%
Scott Walker10%12%7%5%7%11%11%7%11%10%**10%**13%6%11%********12%9%7%****5%10%12%5%11%14%6%10%13%6%15%4%
Rand Paul26%26%27%41%35%24%14%37%20%27%**26%**21%29%35%********17%27%38%****24%33%24%27%30%21%35%24%30%28%19%29%
Mike Huckabee15%13%16%4%17%18%14%12%16%15%**15%**17%11%16%********17%16%8%****21%11%14%18%13%11%10%16%15%8%16%21%
Marco Rubio6%5%7%4%2%5%11%3%8%6%**6%**7%7%5%********5%7%5%****5%5%7%5%6%8%2%7%3%9%8%3%
Rick Perry2%1%3%2%4%1%1%3%1%2%**2%**2%1%1%********2%2%0%****1%1%2%2%1%2%1%2%3%3%0%1%
Carly Fiorina1%1%2%2%0%2%2%1%2%1%**1%**1%3%1%********1%2%2%****1%1%2%1%2%0%2%1%1%2%2%1%
Bobby Jindal2%4%1%3%1%3%2%2%2%2%**2%**1%3%2%********2%2%3%****2%3%2%4%1%3%2%2%1%4%2%1%
Ben Carson7%5%8%11%6%4%8%8%6%7%**7%**7%5%11%********11%7%1%****3%10%7%7%7%5%9%6%8%8%5%7%
Other2%3%0%0%3%1%2%2%1%2%**2%**2%0%3%********2%0%4%****2%1%2%1%2%2%3%1%1%2%1%3%
Undecided8%6%10%12%6%8%6%8%7%8%**8%**5%9%6%********4%8%12%****9%6%9%8%7%7%16%6%6%6%8%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Certain To Vote in Republican Primary100%53%47%14%24%34%28%38%62%95%2%100%0%40%37%19%3%1%0%0%33%42%22%2%0%24%33%43%34%38%28%19%81%20%30%25%24%
 
3Should the Republican Party in Kentucky select its nominee for President in 2016 through a primary held in late May as it has traditionally done? Or should it hold a presidential preference caucus earlier in the year, which would allow Rand Paul to run for both President and U.S. Senate at the same time?
517 Certain To Vote in Republican PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistratiParty Affiliation, Regardless Of RegistrationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegions
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineW KYLouisvilN CentraE KY
Primary53%55%51%60%50%52%53%54%53%53%**53%**52%56%46%********54%47%59%****59%52%50%58%51%50%65%50%53%49%57%54%
Caucus34%34%33%26%37%35%33%33%34%33%**34%**39%31%34%********35%37%29%****24%33%40%28%34%40%14%38%35%34%30%35%
Not Sure13%11%16%14%13%13%14%13%13%14%**13%**9%14%19%********11%16%12%****16%15%11%15%15%10%21%11%12%16%13%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Certain To Vote in Republican Primary100%53%47%14%24%34%28%38%62%95%2%100%0%40%37%19%3%1%0%0%33%42%22%2%0%24%33%43%34%38%28%19%81%20%30%25%24%
 
4Rand Paul has decided to run for both the Senate and the Presidency at the same time. Do you agree with his decision to do that? Should he run for re-election to the Senate only? Should he run for President only? Or should he run for neither?
517 Certain To Vote in Republican PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistratiParty Affiliation, Regardless Of RegistrationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegions
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineW KYLouisvilN CentraE KY
Agree52%54%49%62%52%50%48%56%49%51%**52%**59%45%56%********54%53%49%****45%56%53%46%55%56%52%51%50%56%49%50%
Senate Only25%24%26%22%24%25%27%23%26%25%**25%**23%25%25%********27%23%25%****31%18%26%27%24%23%21%26%26%25%28%21%
President Only11%9%13%8%11%12%11%10%12%12%**11%**8%16%10%********7%13%12%****10%15%9%11%14%7%13%11%8%11%12%13%
Neither8%8%8%7%7%8%9%7%9%8%**8%**6%8%8%********8%7%8%****11%6%7%14%3%7%4%9%8%5%7%13%
Not Sure5%4%5%2%6%5%5%4%5%5%**5%**4%6%1%********4%5%5%****3%6%5%2%4%7%9%3%8%4%5%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Certain To Vote in Republican Primary100%53%47%14%24%34%28%38%62%95%2%100%0%40%37%19%3%1%0%0%33%42%22%2%0%24%33%43%34%38%28%19%81%20%30%25%24%
 
5If the Democratic Primary for Kentucky Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, which Democratic candidate would you vote for? Jack Conway? Or Geoff Young?
707 Certain To Vote in Democratic PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistratiParty Affiliation, Regardless Of RegistrationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegions
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineW KYLouisvilN CentraE KY
Conway68%68%67%63%62%69%72%63%71%69%60%**68%****47%60%72%69%76%53%64%68%71%76%69%63%71%61%72%78%53%70%66%74%66%60%
Young13%16%10%7%16%13%13%13%13%13%7%**13%****19%29%12%13%6%18%13%14%10%10%12%13%15%13%11%14%13%13%14%11%15%14%
Undecided19%15%23%30%21%18%15%24%17%18%32%**19%****33%11%16%18%19%29%23%18%19%14%20%24%14%26%17%8%34%17%20%15%19%27%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Certain To Vote in Democratic Primary100%45%55%13%25%33%29%38%62%87%10%0%100%2%3%5%7%15%37%31%7%16%46%21%9%28%31%41%43%34%23%17%83%19%34%26%21%
 
6If elected Governor, would Jack Conway side too much with the coal industry? Side too much with environmentalists? Or take a balanced approach?
707 Certain To Vote in Democratic PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistratiParty Affiliation, Regardless Of RegistrationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegions
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineW KYLouisvilN CentraE KY
Coal Industry11%15%8%11%9%12%11%10%12%11%10%**11%****3%12%16%7%14%14%5%9%11%29%7%8%16%8%13%10%10%11%11%10%17%5%
Environmentalists12%15%10%11%11%13%13%11%13%13%6%**12%****36%28%8%11%3%34%18%12%5%4%11%17%10%11%13%11%10%13%11%11%8%20%
Balanced Approach58%54%62%55%61%56%60%59%58%58%52%**58%****31%42%55%63%68%20%54%64%65%54%59%57%60%55%58%69%51%60%54%66%57%50%
Not Sure19%17%21%22%20%20%16%21%18%18%32%**19%****30%19%21%19%15%32%24%16%20%13%23%19%15%25%15%10%29%17%24%14%18%24%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Certain To Vote in Democratic Primary100%45%55%13%25%33%29%38%62%87%10%0%100%2%3%5%7%15%37%31%7%16%46%21%9%28%31%41%43%34%23%17%83%19%34%26%21%
 
7 Is Jack Conway too conservative? Too liberal? Or just about right?
707 Certain To Vote in Democratic PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistratiParty Affiliation, Regardless Of RegistrationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegions
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineW KYLouisvilN CentraE KY
Too Conservative11%14%9%16%14%11%7%14%9%12%5%**11%****7%16%14%11%10%22%3%7%12%39%10%8%15%12%13%9%16%10%10%10%15%10%
Too Liberal13%16%9%8%11%14%15%10%14%12%13%**13%****36%34%15%9%2%22%23%14%2%3%10%13%14%11%11%16%5%14%16%14%8%13%
Just About Right63%58%66%61%59%61%69%60%65%63%60%**63%****42%42%60%68%72%35%53%68%71%55%64%62%62%59%65%67%63%63%59%68%62%57%
Not Sure13%12%15%15%16%14%9%16%12%13%23%**13%****15%8%11%12%16%21%20%11%14%3%16%17%9%19%11%7%16%13%14%8%15%20%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Certain To Vote in Democratic Primary100%45%55%13%25%33%29%38%62%87%10%0%100%2%3%5%7%15%37%31%7%16%46%21%9%28%31%41%43%34%23%17%83%19%34%26%21%
 
8A federal judge struck down Kentucky's ban on same-sex marriage last year and, as attorney general, Jack Conway chose not to appeal that ruling to the U.S. Court of Appeals. Did Conway make the right decision or the wrong decision?
2104 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistratiParty Affiliation, Regardless Of RegistrationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegions
Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineW KYLouisvilN CentraE KY
Right Decision44%45%43%53%44%42%39%48%41%44%40%37%48%31%40%37%48%47%47%56%32%37%50%48%**39%45%47%44%43%45%50%42%40%47%44%43%
Wrong Decision41%43%40%35%40%44%45%37%45%42%36%50%37%57%47%49%34%39%36%31%56%50%33%39%**43%40%42%38%43%45%32%44%44%38%42%44%
Not Sure15%11%18%12%16%14%16%14%15%14%23%12%15%12%13%14%17%14%17%13%12%13%18%12%**18%16%11%17%14%10%18%14%16%15%14%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%20%26%31%24%45%55%90%7%34%51%13%16%13%13%12%20%13%16%26%40%13%5%28%34%38%45%34%21%23%77%22%30%27%21%
 
9Looking ahead now to the General Election in November... if the general election for governor of Kentucky were today, and the only two names on the ballot were Republican James Comer and Democrat Jack Conway, who would you vote for?
1677 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistratiParty Affiliation, Regardless Of RegistrationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegions
Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineW KYLouisvilN CentraE KY
Comer39%42%36%31%39%41%41%36%41%40%16%74%16%84%70%62%32%10%13%1%71%59%25%6%5%37%40%40%34%44%40%35%40%46%31%39%44%
Conway45%45%45%48%43%44%45%45%45%44%70%10%72%7%16%12%44%70%70%95%18%22%55%84%90%43%43%48%46%42%48%38%47%40%55%42%40%
Undecided16%13%19%20%18%15%14%19%14%16%14%16%12%9%14%25%25%20%17%4%11%19%20%9%6%20%17%12%19%14%12%27%14%14%15%19%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%15%26%33%26%40%60%90%7%36%52%15%16%13%10%11%20%14%17%27%38%12%5%26%32%42%40%36%24%18%82%21%31%27%21%
 
10What if the only two names on the ballot were Republican Hal Heiner and Democrat Jack Conway?
1677 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistratiParty Affiliation, Regardless Of RegistrationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegions
Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineW KYLouisvilN CentraE KY
Heiner36%40%33%28%39%36%38%35%37%38%15%68%15%79%67%52%35%9%11%3%66%56%23%6%5%34%36%38%30%43%38%31%37%34%36%38%39%
Conway48%48%48%52%46%48%47%48%47%46%75%15%73%8%18%24%39%72%76%93%21%26%58%86%87%47%45%50%50%43%52%48%48%47%53%47%43%
Undecided16%13%19%20%15%16%15%17%16%16%9%17%12%13%16%24%26%19%13%4%13%18%19%8%7%19%18%12%19%15%11%21%15%20%12%16%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%15%26%33%26%40%60%90%7%36%52%15%16%13%10%11%20%14%17%27%38%12%5%26%32%42%40%36%24%18%82%21%31%27%21%
 
11What if the only two names on the ballot were Republican Matt Bevin and Democrat Jack Conway?
1677 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistratiParty Affiliation, Regardless Of RegistrationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegions
Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineW KYLouisvilN CentraE KY
Bevin37%39%34%33%36%38%38%35%38%38%15%70%15%82%62%58%33%10%12%1%67%56%22%8%6%33%39%38%31%42%40%35%37%41%34%37%36%
Conway48%48%47%48%49%47%47%48%47%46%76%13%74%6%19%20%41%73%74%97%21%25%59%84%87%47%45%50%50%43%51%44%48%44%54%47%41%
Undecided16%12%19%19%15%15%15%17%15%16%9%17%11%12%18%22%27%17%14%2%12%19%19%8%6%20%16%12%20%15%8%22%14%15%12%15%22%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%15%26%33%26%40%60%90%7%36%52%15%16%13%10%11%20%14%17%27%38%12%5%26%32%42%40%36%24%18%82%21%31%27%21%
 
12What if the only two names on the ballot were Republican Will T. Scott and Democrat Jack Conway?
1677 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistratiParty Affiliation, Regardless Of RegistrationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegions
Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineW KYLouisvilN CentraE KY
Scott32%36%27%24%34%34%32%30%33%33%15%61%12%74%58%40%32%7%8%4%60%47%19%7%10%29%33%33%26%37%34%25%33%34%25%32%40%
Conway48%48%49%50%48%48%49%49%48%47%74%15%75%8%19%25%38%74%77%92%21%29%59%86%83%48%47%50%51%44%51%47%49%45%58%48%38%
Undecided20%15%24%26%19%18%20%21%19%20%11%24%13%18%23%35%31%19%14%4%19%24%22%8%7%23%20%17%22%19%14%28%18%21%18%20%22%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%15%26%33%26%40%60%90%7%36%52%15%16%13%10%11%20%14%17%27%38%12%5%26%32%42%40%36%24%18%82%21%31%27%21%
 
13Who do you trust more to bring jobs to Kentucky? Republicans or Democrats?
2104 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistratiParty Affiliation, Regardless Of RegistrationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegions
Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineW KYLouisvilN CentraE KY
Republicans40%43%37%31%37%44%45%35%44%42%19%83%15%96%79%75%23%7%7%1%73%61%27%9%**39%39%42%33%45%48%33%42%45%36%38%43%
Democrats43%42%44%47%40%42%43%43%43%41%69%6%72%2%8%8%28%69%79%95%17%22%51%75%**44%41%43%47%39%40%38%44%40%45%44%41%
Not Sure17%15%19%22%22%14%12%22%13%17%12%11%14%2%12%17%49%25%14%4%10%17%22%16%**17%20%15%20%16%12%30%14%15%19%18%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%20%26%31%24%45%55%90%7%34%51%13%16%13%13%12%20%13%16%26%40%13%5%28%34%38%45%34%21%23%77%22%30%27%21%
 
14Who do you trust more to make decisions about whether to continue or end the KYnect health insurance exchange?
2104 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistratiParty Affiliation, Regardless Of RegistrationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegions
Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineW KYLouisvilN CentraE KY
Republicans40%42%38%34%40%42%41%38%42%41%22%78%17%93%71%70%24%11%11%7%72%61%26%13%**37%40%42%34%44%46%34%42%43%36%38%44%
Democrats39%40%37%46%37%38%35%41%37%37%58%8%62%2%11%12%26%64%67%81%18%19%45%70%**36%37%42%40%38%39%41%38%37%43%40%33%
Not Sure21%18%25%20%23%20%23%22%21%22%19%14%21%4%18%17%50%25%23%12%11%19%29%17%**27%23%15%27%18%16%26%20%20%21%22%23%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%20%26%31%24%45%55%90%7%34%51%13%16%13%13%12%20%13%16%26%40%13%5%28%34%38%45%34%21%23%77%22%30%27%21%
 
15Are you more likely to support a candidate for governor who believes man-made climate change is occurring or a candidate who believes man-made climate change is not occurring?
2104 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistratiParty Affiliation, Regardless Of RegistrationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegions
Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineW KYLouisvilN CentraE KY
Man-made Climate Change Is Occuring53%54%52%64%50%52%47%57%50%53%60%38%65%32%38%35%49%72%65%77%33%37%59%83%**46%53%58%49%54%59%58%52%49%61%56%43%
NOT Occuring30%33%27%20%25%34%38%23%35%30%22%48%19%55%45%46%25%13%18%10%52%47%20%8%**33%29%29%29%31%30%17%34%31%25%29%36%
Not Sure17%13%21%16%24%14%15%21%14%17%18%14%17%12%17%19%26%15%17%13%14%17%21%10%**21%18%13%21%15%11%25%15%20%14%15%22%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%20%26%31%24%45%55%90%7%34%51%13%16%13%13%12%20%13%16%26%40%13%5%28%34%38%45%34%21%23%77%22%30%27%21%
 
Thinking ahead now to the 2016 general election for President of the United States. If the November 2016 election were today, and the only two candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?
2104 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty RegistratiParty Affiliation, Regardless Of RegistrationIdeologyEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegions
Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineW KYLouisvilN CentraE KY
Rand Paul (R)45%47%42%34%44%48%50%40%49%47%18%81%21%91%78%80%41%15%15%2%73%69%33%10%**43%48%45%39%51%47%38%47%52%40%45%43%
Hillary Clinton (D)45%43%46%50%43%43%44%46%44%43%74%11%70%5%12%11%38%70%73%96%21%20%54%82%**43%43%48%48%39%46%44%45%38%50%46%43%
Undecided11%10%11%16%13%9%7%14%8%10%8%8%9%4%10%8%21%15%12%2%6%10%13%8%**15%10%8%13%9%7%18%8%10%10%10%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%20%26%31%24%45%55%90%7%34%51%13%16%13%13%12%20%13%16%26%40%13%5%28%34%38%45%34%21%23%77%22%30%27%21%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.