Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27177 |
Overthrow Joe? Most Dems Say No ...
Majorities of Democrats Say Biden is Up To Job, Remains On Ticket; Trump Leads Biden by 2 Points in Polling Conducted After Presidential Debate: Former President Donald Trump leads incumbent President Joe Biden 45% to 43% among likely voters in an election held today, June 28 2024, the day following the first Presidential debate. 6% of likely voters say they would vote for another candidate; 7% are undecided. SurveyUSA conducted this research before Biden delivered a fiery early afternoon address in North Carolina, but after the June 27 debate between Trump and Biden. 83% of likely voters who choose a candidate say they will definitely vote for that candidate, including 86% of Trump voters and 87% of Biden voters. Just 40% of those who say they will vote for a third party candidate stand firm on that intention: 55% of third-party voters say there is a chance they may change their mind, compared to just 12% of Trump and 11% of Biden voters. 48% of all likely voters say Donald Trump is "up to the job" of being President for the next 4 years; 45% say he is not. Among just those who say they will vote for Trump, 94% say he is up to the job. Just 29% of all voters say Biden is up to the job; 57% say he is not. Among Biden's own voters, just 64% say he is up to the job; 14% say he is not; 22% are not sure. So as TV pundits and Democrats coast to coast ask themselves what should happen next, SurveyUSA took it to the voters: 55% of likely Democratic voters say Biden should continue his run for a second term in office; 34% say he should step aside and allow another Democrat to run. 10% aren't sure. If Biden does not step aside, 57% of likely Democratic voters say the Democratic Party should nominate him to run again at the Democratic National Convention this August; 33% say they should nominate another Democrat instead. If Biden is replaced on the top of the ticket, which Democrat should replace him?
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About the Research / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 3,300 adults from the entire United States 06/28/24. Of the adults, 2,831 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 2,315 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election and were asked how they would vote in November, how confident they were in that vote, and whether each candidate was up to the job. 879 of the likely voters were identified as Democrats and were asked the further questions about replacing Joe Biden on the ticket. This research was conducted online, using nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to US Census ACS targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership, and to recalled 2020 presidential vote. |
1 | Are you registered to vote? |
3300 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Abortion | 2024 President | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 1.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Pro-choi | Pro-life | Trump | Biden | Another | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | |
Yes | 85% | 87% | 84% | 79% | 85% | 86% | 92% | 82% | 89% | 87% | 88% | 82% | 78% | 87% | 84% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 87% | 83% | 89% | 95% | 89% | 83% | 92% | 89% | 86% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 93% | 97% | 78% | 87% | 92% | 77% | 88% | 92% | 89% | 77% | 84% | 87% | 83% |
No | 13% | 12% | 14% | 18% | 13% | 12% | 8% | 16% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 16% | 18% | 11% | 14% | - | - | - | - | - | 8% | 12% | 15% | 10% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 7% | 10% | 13% | - | - | - | 7% | 2% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 21% | 12% | 6% | 9% | 20% | 15% | 11% | 15% |
Not Sure | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - | - | - | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Adults | 100% | 49% | 51% | 29% | 24% | 24% | 22% | 54% | 46% | 60% | 12% | 17% | 11% | 30% | 69% | 69% | 14% | 37% | 38% | 23% | 15% | 19% | 38% | 13% | 10% | 34% | 38% | 23% | 52% | 34% | 45% | 43% | 6% | 37% | 39% | 37% | 30% | 33% | 34% | 37% | 29% | 65% | 35% | 29% | 48% | 23% |
2 | Americans will elect a President this November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Which of these best describes you? |
2813 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Abortion | 2024 President | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 2.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Pro-choi | Pro-life | Trump | Biden | Another | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | |
I Will Not Vote This November | 5% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | 5% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 4% | - | - | - | 5% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 5% |
I Probably Will Not Vote This November | 4% | 3% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 4% | - | - | - | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% |
There's a 50/50 Chance I Will Vote This November | 9% | 9% | 10% | 16% | 10% | 7% | 2% | 13% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | 5% | 7% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 14% | 5% | 8% | 9% | - | - | - | 6% | 7% | 14% | 9% | 5% | 12% | 10% | 5% | 7% | 13% | 12% | 8% | 8% |
I Will Probably Vote This November | 14% | 13% | 15% | 20% | 14% | 12% | 8% | 17% | 10% | 12% | 8% | 20% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 0% | 100% | 16% | 12% | 23% | 10% | 17% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 15% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 17% | 13% | 23% | 13% | 11% | 17% | 13% | 11% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 18% | 14% | 13% | 15% |
I Absolutely Will Vote This November | 69% | 70% | 67% | 48% | 67% | 76% | 86% | 57% | 81% | 73% | 71% | 60% | 56% | 62% | 72% | 100% | 0% | 84% | 88% | 77% | 76% | 70% | 62% | 74% | 81% | 73% | 62% | 77% | 71% | 69% | 83% | 87% | 77% | 74% | 75% | 60% | 70% | 75% | 62% | 67% | 77% | 73% | 58% | 64% | 71% | 69% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 52% | 48% | 62% | 12% | 17% | 10% | 31% | 68% | 69% | 14% | 37% | 38% | 23% | 16% | 20% | 37% | 13% | 11% | 36% | 37% | 25% | 55% | 35% | 45% | 43% | 6% | 40% | 44% | 34% | 31% | 36% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 68% | 32% | 28% | 50% | 22% |
3 | If the November election for President were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Joe Biden? Or a candidate from another party? |
2315 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Abortion | 2024 President | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Pro-choi | Pro-life | Trump | Biden | Another | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | |
Donald Trump | 45% | 50% | 39% | 44% | 43% | 47% | 44% | 44% | 45% | 49% | 22% | 41% | 48% | 46% | 44% | 44% | 46% | 88% | 6% | 41% | 84% | 78% | 34% | 8% | 6% | 81% | 34% | 7% | 25% | 75% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 90% | 6% | 51% | 46% | 39% | 44% | 44% | 45% | 45% | 43% | 38% | 43% | 54% |
Joe Biden | 43% | 38% | 47% | 41% | 43% | 40% | 45% | 42% | 43% | 37% | 67% | 46% | 39% | 41% | 43% | 44% | 33% | 5% | 85% | 34% | 12% | 12% | 46% | 77% | 88% | 12% | 46% | 82% | 61% | 17% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 4% | 83% | 37% | 41% | 48% | 44% | 43% | 41% | 42% | 43% | 50% | 43% | 33% |
Another Candidate | 6% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 14% | 2% | 3% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% |
Undecided | 7% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 12% | 4% | 5% | 11% | 1% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 27% | 47% | 53% | 63% | 11% | 16% | 9% | 29% | 70% | 83% | 17% | 37% | 38% | 23% | 17% | 20% | 34% | 14% | 13% | 37% | 34% | 26% | 56% | 35% | 45% | 43% | 6% | 42% | 46% | 32% | 31% | 38% | 29% | 38% | 34% | 71% | 29% | 27% | 50% | 23% |
4 | Will you definitely vote for that candidate? Or is there a chance you might change your mind? |
2161 Voting For a Candidate For President | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Abortion | 2024 President | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 1.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Pro-choi | Pro-life | Trump | Biden | Another | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | |
Definitely Vote For That Candidate | 83% | 84% | 83% | 76% | 82% | 86% | 88% | 79% | 87% | 84% | 87% | 81% | 75% | 81% | 84% | 87% | 65% | 87% | 85% | 75% | 92% | 83% | 78% | 77% | 90% | 87% | 78% | 83% | 82% | 87% | 86% | 87% | 40% | 87% | 84% | 85% | 82% | 82% | 85% | 84% | 81% | 84% | 81% | 83% | 82% | 86% |
May Change My Mind | 14% | 14% | 14% | 22% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 18% | 11% | 14% | 11% | 17% | 21% | 17% | 13% | 12% | 29% | 11% | 14% | 21% | 7% | 13% | 19% | 20% | 9% | 10% | 19% | 14% | 15% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 55% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 16% | 11% |
Not Sure | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Voting For a Candidate For President | 100% | 51% | 49% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 27% | 47% | 53% | 64% | 12% | 16% | 9% | 29% | 70% | 84% | 16% | 38% | 39% | 22% | 18% | 20% | 33% | 14% | 13% | 38% | 33% | 27% | 56% | 36% | 48% | 46% | 7% | 44% | 46% | 31% | 31% | 38% | 28% | 38% | 34% | 71% | 29% | 27% | 50% | 23% |
5 | We're going to ask the same questions now about both Donald Trump and Joe Biden: (order of Q5 and Q6 rotated) Is Joe Biden up to the job of being President for the next 4 years? |
2315 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Abortion | 2024 President | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Pro-choi | Pro-life | Trump | Biden | Another | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | |
Yes | 29% | 28% | 30% | 25% | 34% | 28% | 30% | 30% | 29% | 25% | 55% | 35% | 17% | 31% | 29% | 31% | 18% | 5% | 58% | 20% | 14% | 8% | 29% | 47% | 64% | 11% | 29% | 55% | 40% | 14% | 3% | 64% | 6% | 4% | 55% | 28% | 29% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 25% | 28% | 32% | 38% | 27% | 24% |
No | 57% | 60% | 55% | 58% | 56% | 60% | 56% | 57% | 58% | 63% | 27% | 52% | 63% | 58% | 58% | 55% | 67% | 90% | 22% | 63% | 83% | 86% | 53% | 29% | 19% | 85% | 53% | 25% | 42% | 82% | 94% | 14% | 85% | 91% | 24% | 60% | 58% | 54% | 57% | 55% | 61% | 58% | 55% | 47% | 58% | 67% |
Not Sure | 13% | 11% | 16% | 17% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 17% | 12% | 20% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 5% | 19% | 16% | 3% | 6% | 18% | 24% | 17% | 5% | 18% | 20% | 18% | 4% | 4% | 22% | 8% | 4% | 21% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 9% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 27% | 47% | 53% | 63% | 11% | 16% | 9% | 29% | 70% | 83% | 17% | 37% | 38% | 23% | 17% | 20% | 34% | 14% | 13% | 37% | 34% | 26% | 56% | 35% | 45% | 43% | 6% | 42% | 46% | 32% | 31% | 38% | 29% | 38% | 34% | 71% | 29% | 27% | 50% | 23% |
6 | Is Donald Trump up to the job of being President for the next 4 years? |
2315 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Abortion | 2024 President | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Pro-choi | Pro-life | Trump | Biden | Another | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | |
Yes | 48% | 55% | 40% | 46% | 48% | 51% | 46% | 47% | 48% | 53% | 25% | 43% | 48% | 51% | 46% | 48% | 45% | 87% | 13% | 43% | 88% | 77% | 38% | 13% | 11% | 82% | 38% | 12% | 29% | 77% | 94% | 8% | 15% | 91% | 11% | 54% | 48% | 42% | 47% | 49% | 47% | 49% | 45% | 43% | 46% | 57% |
No | 45% | 39% | 51% | 43% | 46% | 43% | 50% | 44% | 46% | 42% | 65% | 49% | 43% | 42% | 47% | 46% | 42% | 8% | 80% | 49% | 8% | 16% | 54% | 80% | 84% | 12% | 54% | 82% | 65% | 17% | 2% | 86% | 70% | 5% | 82% | 39% | 45% | 51% | 47% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 46% | 48% | 47% | 39% |
Not Sure | 7% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 9% | 5% | 5% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 13% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 15% | 4% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 5% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 27% | 47% | 53% | 63% | 11% | 16% | 9% | 29% | 70% | 83% | 17% | 37% | 38% | 23% | 17% | 20% | 34% | 14% | 13% | 37% | 34% | 26% | 56% | 35% | 45% | 43% | 6% | 42% | 46% | 32% | 31% | 38% | 29% | 38% | 34% | 71% | 29% | 27% | 50% | 23% |
7 | In general, do you consider yourself a ... ? |
2315 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Abortion | 2024 President | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Pro-choi | Pro-life | Trump | Biden | Another | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | |
Republican | 37% | 40% | 33% | 31% | 36% | 40% | 38% | 34% | 39% | 42% | 15% | 33% | 34% | 37% | 36% | 37% | 34% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 78% | 70% | 22% | 5% | 3% | 73% | 22% | 4% | 21% | 62% | 72% | 4% | 18% | 73% | 6% | 40% | 37% | 33% | 35% | 35% | 39% | 38% | 32% | 31% | 36% | 44% |
Democrat | 38% | 32% | 44% | 41% | 41% | 35% | 36% | 41% | 36% | 31% | 69% | 48% | 30% | 40% | 37% | 40% | 27% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 12% | 10% | 35% | 74% | 87% | 11% | 35% | 80% | 53% | 16% | 5% | 76% | 25% | 5% | 72% | 36% | 38% | 40% | 40% | 38% | 36% | 36% | 42% | 49% | 37% | 26% |
Independent | 23% | 26% | 21% | 24% | 22% | 23% | 25% | 23% | 24% | 25% | 13% | 18% | 32% | 20% | 25% | 22% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 8% | 19% | 40% | 19% | 9% | 14% | 40% | 14% | 25% | 20% | 21% | 19% | 53% | 20% | 21% | 23% | 23% | 25% | 23% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 25% | 26% |
Something Else | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 4% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 27% | 47% | 53% | 63% | 11% | 16% | 9% | 29% | 70% | 83% | 17% | 37% | 38% | 23% | 17% | 20% | 34% | 14% | 13% | 37% | 34% | 26% | 56% | 35% | 45% | 43% | 6% | 42% | 46% | 32% | 31% | 38% | 29% | 38% | 34% | 71% | 29% | 27% | 50% | 23% |
8 | Should Joe Biden continue to run for a second term? Or should Joe Biden step aside and allow another Democrat to run for President? |
879 Likely Democratic Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Abortion | 2024 President | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Pro-choi | Pro-life | Trump | Biden | Another | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | |
Continue To Run | 55% | 59% | 53% | 52% | 59% | 55% | 56% | 55% | 56% | 51% | 69% | 55% | 47% | 58% | 54% | 56% | 50% | ** | 55% | ** | 71% | 50% | 56% | 42% | 65% | 60% | 56% | 54% | 55% | 60% | 20% | 63% | ** | 30% | 58% | 62% | 53% | 53% | 61% | 57% | 49% | 55% | 57% | 62% | 52% | 54% |
Step Aside | 34% | 33% | 35% | 44% | 28% | 33% | 33% | 36% | 33% | 37% | 22% | 38% | 43% | 32% | 36% | 33% | 45% | ** | 34% | ** | 28% | 45% | 35% | 42% | 25% | 36% | 35% | 33% | 35% | 32% | 78% | 26% | ** | 63% | 31% | 33% | 37% | 33% | 32% | 32% | 39% | 33% | 36% | 30% | 36% | 38% |
Not Sure | 10% | 8% | 12% | 5% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 5% | ** | 10% | ** | 1% | 5% | 9% | 16% | 10% | 3% | 9% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 2% | 11% | ** | 7% | 11% | 5% | 10% | 14% | 7% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 8% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Democratic Voters | 100% | 43% | 57% | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | 50% | 50% | 51% | 21% | 20% | 7% | 31% | 69% | 88% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 5% | 6% | 32% | 27% | 29% | 11% | 32% | 56% | 78% | 15% | 6% | 85% | 4% | 5% | 87% | 30% | 31% | 40% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 68% | 32% | 35% | 50% | 16% |
9 | If Joe Biden does not step aside, should the Democratic Party nominate him to run for a second term at the Democratic National Convention in August? Or should the Democratic Party nominate another Democrat? |
879 Likely Democratic Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Abortion | 2024 President | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Pro-choi | Pro-life | Trump | Biden | Another | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | |
Nominate Biden Again | 57% | 61% | 55% | 50% | 54% | 62% | 64% | 52% | 63% | 57% | 67% | 52% | 50% | 56% | 58% | 59% | 44% | ** | 57% | ** | 66% | 48% | 56% | 49% | 68% | 57% | 56% | 59% | 59% | 53% | 14% | 66% | ** | 31% | 61% | 61% | 54% | 57% | 63% | 55% | 55% | 59% | 55% | 58% | 57% | 58% |
Nominate Another Democrat | 33% | 31% | 34% | 45% | 32% | 29% | 26% | 38% | 27% | 31% | 25% | 43% | 42% | 34% | 32% | 30% | 52% | ** | 33% | ** | 29% | 46% | 34% | 38% | 25% | 38% | 34% | 32% | 31% | 39% | 85% | 24% | ** | 59% | 28% | 32% | 36% | 31% | 31% | 33% | 35% | 30% | 39% | 32% | 33% | 34% |
Not Sure | 10% | 8% | 11% | 4% | 15% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 13% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 9% | 11% | 3% | ** | 10% | ** | 6% | 6% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 1% | 11% | ** | 9% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 6% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 8% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Democratic Voters | 100% | 43% | 57% | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | 50% | 50% | 51% | 21% | 20% | 7% | 31% | 69% | 88% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 5% | 6% | 32% | 27% | 29% | 11% | 32% | 56% | 78% | 15% | 6% | 85% | 4% | 5% | 87% | 30% | 31% | 40% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 68% | 32% | 35% | 50% | 16% |
10 | If Joe Biden is replaced as the Democratic candidate for President, which Democrat should replace him? |
879 Likely Democratic Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Abortion | 2024 President | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Pro-choi | Pro-life | Trump | Biden | Another | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | |
Vice President Kamala Harris | 43% | 44% | 41% | 49% | 56% | 42% | 24% | 52% | 33% | 34% | 63% | 43% | 42% | 55% | 37% | 42% | 46% | ** | 43% | ** | 65% | 35% | 44% | 34% | 47% | 50% | 44% | 40% | 41% | 48% | 23% | 45% | ** | 23% | 42% | 53% | 38% | 39% | 45% | 43% | 40% | 41% | 46% | 49% | 38% | 41% |
California Governor Gavin Newsom | 16% | 20% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 16% | 24% | 11% | 20% | 18% | 11% | 17% | 12% | 11% | 18% | 18% | 2% | ** | 16% | ** | 2% | 9% | 14% | 19% | 18% | 5% | 14% | 18% | 18% | 10% | 9% | 17% | ** | 8% | 17% | 8% | 18% | 20% | 12% | 15% | 21% | 16% | 15% | 15% | 17% | 13% |
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg | 8% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 9% | 11% | 5% | 10% | 13% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 10% | 8% | 8% | ** | 8% | ** | 4% | 9% | 5% | 9% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 8% | ** | 6% | 8% | 4% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 4% | 5% | 9% | 11% |
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer | 7% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 5% | ** | 7% | ** | 7% | 10% | 5% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 7% | ** | 5% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro | 4% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 5% | ** | 4% | ** | 12% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 8% | 12% | 4% | ** | 14% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 4% |
Maryland Governor Wes Moore | 2% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | ** | 2% | ** | 0% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 1% | ** | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 0% |
Someone Else | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | ** | 1% | ** | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | ** | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
Undecided | 20% | 14% | 24% | 16% | 16% | 20% | 27% | 16% | 23% | 20% | 16% | 22% | 20% | 14% | 22% | 18% | 31% | ** | 20% | ** | 10% | 25% | 27% | 19% | 14% | 18% | 27% | 16% | 19% | 20% | 42% | 16% | ** | 39% | 18% | 20% | 24% | 16% | 21% | 21% | 17% | 19% | 22% | 18% | 19% | 24% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Democratic Voters | 100% | 43% | 57% | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | 50% | 50% | 51% | 21% | 20% | 7% | 31% | 69% | 88% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 5% | 6% | 32% | 27% | 29% | 11% | 32% | 56% | 78% | 15% | 6% | 85% | 4% | 5% | 87% | 30% | 31% | 40% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 68% | 32% | 35% | 50% | 16% |