| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #23316 |
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In NY's 19th Congressional District, Unclear if Democrat Teachout Can Maintain Narrow Advantage Given Buffeting At Top of Ticket:
7 days till votes are counted in the high-profile contest to fill the open seat in New York's 19th Congressional District, either Democrat Zephyr Teachout or Republican John Faso may emerge victorious, with chaos in the Presidential contest and closeness in the polling data presented here combining to make the outcome uncertain, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for WNYT-TV in Albany. The seat in the U.S. House of Representatives may be pivotal in determining which political party controls the U.S. House of Representatives in the next (115th) Congress. At this hour, it's Democrat Teachout 45%, Republican Faso 42%, with 13% of likely voters undecided. Here is why those numbers should be interpreted cautiously: 14% of the interviews for this survey were completed before the FBI announcement 10/28/16 that it had discovered State Department emails on a previously unknown electronic device. In SurveyUSA interviews completed before the FBI announcement, Clinton led Republican Donald Trump in New York's 19th by 5 points, 47% to 42%. In interviews completed after the FBI announcement, Trump led Clinton by 3 points, 45% to 42%. Lots of turbulence. Seat belts on. If Teachout wins, it will be because of young voters, where she leads by 13 points, because of women, where she leads by 12, and because of lower-income voters, where she leads by 9. Voters who say health care is most important in their vote for Congress back Teachout by 24 points. Voters who say the environment is most important in their vote for Congress back Teachout 18:1. If Faso wins, it will be because of high-school educated voters, where he leads by 32 points, and because of men, where he leads by 7. Voters who say corruption is most important in their vote for Congress, and voters who say that national security is most important in their vote for Congress, back Faso 2:1. * 77% of those who vote for Trump at the top of the ticket back Faso down-ballot. * 83% of those who vote for Clinton at the top of the ticket back Teachout down-ballot. * Teachout leads by 11 points among both moderates and independents. * For Teachout to seize the seat, she must prevent defections among these 2 groups in the campaign's final week. About: SurveyUSA interviewed 675 registered voters from NY-19 10/27/16 through 10/30/16, using Registration Based Sample (aka: voter-list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 598 as likely to vote before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents, 26% of likely voters) were contacted by live interviewers, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent's cooperation, ensured the respondent's safety, asked the questions, noted the answers, and remained on the phone until the interview had concluded. NY's 19th Congressional District is a U-shape that wraps around Albany, extends to the Pennsylvania border and nearly to the New Jersey border on the bottom of the U, and includes most of the Catskill mountains. Incumbent Republican Chris Gibson, who won the district by 22 points in 2014, is not seeking re-election. Millions of dollars in outside money has poured into the district, in an attempt by the Republicans to hold this seat, and in an attempt by the Democrats to flip this seat. |
| 1 | If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from New York's 19th Congressional District were today, who would you vote for? Republican John Faso? Or Democrat Zephyr Teachout? |
| 598 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Congressional Vo | Presidential Vot | Issue | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | FBI Announcement | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Republic | Independ | Democrat | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Faso | Teachout | Trump | Clinton | Economy | Corrupti | Health C | National | Environm | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Before | After | |
| John Faso (R) | 42% | 47% | 37% | 30% | 43% | 44% | 44% | 38% | 44% | 83% | 72% | 72% | 33% | 13% | 8% | 0% | 78% | 40% | 5% | 78% | 35% | 5% | 100% | 0% | 77% | 10% | 41% | 60% | 32% | 62% | 5% | 60% | 46% | 32% | 39% | 40% | 44% | 38% | 43% | 49% | 41% |
| Zephyr Teachout (D) | 45% | 40% | 49% | 43% | 41% | 44% | 48% | 42% | 46% | 7% | 16% | 14% | 44% | 77% | 82% | 94% | 11% | 43% | 87% | 13% | 46% | 91% | 0% | 100% | 11% | 83% | 41% | 30% | 56% | 29% | 90% | 28% | 39% | 55% | 48% | 45% | 45% | 31% | 49% | 49% | 44% |
| Undecided | 13% | 13% | 14% | 27% | 16% | 12% | 8% | 20% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 23% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 11% | 17% | 8% | 9% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 12% | 8% | 18% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 4% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 15% | 11% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 15% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 12% | 22% | 37% | 29% | 34% | 66% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 16% | 9% | 17% | 13% | 32% | 36% | 29% | 31% | 34% | 25% | 42% | 45% | 45% | 42% | 32% | 21% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 18% | 32% | 50% | 21% | 35% | 44% | 26% | 74% | 13% | 87% |
| 2 | If the election for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Hillary Clinton? Libertarian Gary Johnson? or Green Party candidate Jill Stein? |
| 598 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Congressional Vo | Presidential Vot | Issue | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | FBI Announcement | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Republic | Independ | Democrat | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Faso | Teachout | Trump | Clinton | Economy | Corrupti | Health C | National | Environm | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Before | After | |
| Donald Trump (R) | 45% | 51% | 39% | 35% | 48% | 46% | 44% | 44% | 45% | 91% | 74% | 76% | 35% | 3% | 13% | 4% | 82% | 40% | 9% | 81% | 37% | 7% | 82% | 11% | 100% | 0% | 41% | 69% | 34% | 60% | 4% | 68% | 51% | 32% | 47% | 45% | 43% | 42% | 46% | 42% | 45% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) | 42% | 36% | 48% | 29% | 38% | 44% | 48% | 35% | 46% | 6% | 19% | 9% | 31% | 75% | 81% | 94% | 12% | 35% | 87% | 12% | 47% | 80% | 10% | 79% | 0% | 100% | 44% | 22% | 51% | 31% | 83% | 25% | 35% | 53% | 38% | 43% | 44% | 34% | 45% | 47% | 42% |
| Gary Johnson (L) | 4% | 5% | 3% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% |
| Jill Stein (G) | 3% | 3% | 4% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 7% | 13% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 8% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% |
| Undecided | 6% | 6% | 6% | 13% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 11% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 2% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 15% | 2% | 3% | 6% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 12% | 22% | 37% | 29% | 34% | 66% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 16% | 9% | 17% | 13% | 32% | 36% | 29% | 31% | 34% | 25% | 42% | 45% | 45% | 42% | 32% | 21% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 18% | 32% | 50% | 21% | 35% | 44% | 26% | 74% | 13% | 87% |
| 3 | Which one of these issues is most important when deciding how you will vote in the election for United States Representative? The economy and jobs? Political corruption? Health care? National security? Environmental issues? Or something else? |
| 598 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Congressional Vo | Presidential Vot | Issue | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | FBI Announcement | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Republic | Independ | Democrat | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Faso | Teachout | Trump | Clinton | Economy | Corrupti | Health C | National | Environm | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Before | After | |
| Economy | 32% | 35% | 30% | 38% | 28% | 33% | 31% | 32% | 32% | 26% | 26% | 32% | 44% | 32% | 35% | 28% | 26% | 37% | 32% | 30% | 36% | 25% | 32% | 29% | 30% | 33% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 36% | 29% | 32% | 34% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| Corruption | 21% | 22% | 20% | 23% | 17% | 19% | 24% | 19% | 21% | 29% | 25% | 37% | 17% | 9% | 16% | 10% | 27% | 21% | 13% | 32% | 20% | 10% | 29% | 14% | 32% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 23% | 23% | 19% | 19% | 22% | 22% | 17% | 22% | 26% | 20% |
| Health Care | 13% | 10% | 17% | 10% | 9% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 15% | 7% | 18% | 10% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 19% | 12% | 13% | 16% | 9% | 13% | 20% | 10% | 17% | 10% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 20% | 9% | 13% | 18% | 10% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 14% |
| National Security | 12% | 15% | 10% | 9% | 16% | 12% | 10% | 14% | 11% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 2% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 19% | 15% | 4% | 18% | 8% | 16% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 8% | 10% | 15% | 10% | 13% | 9% | 13% |
| Environment | 11% | 8% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 24% | 23% | 26% | 2% | 8% | 24% | 0% | 9% | 29% | 1% | 22% | 1% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 1% | 5% | 18% | 11% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 12% | 13% | 11% |
| Other | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 13% | 6% | 7% | 11% | 7% | 9% | 6% | 5% | 10% | 14% | 2% | 12% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 6% | 11% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15% | 3% | 9% | 11% | 7% | 7% | 13% | 6% | 10% | 8% |
| Not Sure | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 12% | 22% | 37% | 29% | 34% | 66% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 16% | 9% | 17% | 13% | 32% | 36% | 29% | 31% | 34% | 25% | 42% | 45% | 45% | 42% | 32% | 21% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 18% | 32% | 50% | 21% | 35% | 44% | 26% | 74% | 13% | 87% |
| 4 | How much impact will the negative ads in the campaign have in your vote for United States Representative? A major impact? A minor impact? Or no impact at all? |
| 598 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Congressional Vo | Presidential Vot | Issue | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | FBI Announcement | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Republic | Independ | Democrat | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Faso | Teachout | Trump | Clinton | Economy | Corrupti | Health C | National | Environm | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Before | After | |
| Major | 14% | 13% | 16% | 6% | 8% | 17% | 18% | 7% | 18% | 18% | 11% | 15% | 18% | 18% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 11% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 16% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 21% | 14% | 11% | 19% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 20% | 13% |
| Minor | 21% | 18% | 23% | 35% | 13% | 19% | 23% | 21% | 21% | 8% | 35% | 24% | 24% | 16% | 25% | 12% | 21% | 22% | 19% | 18% | 32% | 12% | 19% | 20% | 18% | 21% | 24% | 26% | 23% | 18% | 16% | 16% | 27% | 20% | 23% | 22% | 21% | 18% | 22% | 19% | 21% |
| No Impact | 63% | 67% | 60% | 59% | 77% | 62% | 55% | 71% | 59% | 68% | 51% | 62% | 56% | 67% | 63% | 76% | 60% | 61% | 69% | 64% | 54% | 77% | 67% | 66% | 63% | 65% | 58% | 57% | 64% | 66% | 73% | 58% | 57% | 69% | 52% | 63% | 67% | 69% | 61% | 59% | 64% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 12% | 22% | 37% | 29% | 34% | 66% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 16% | 9% | 17% | 13% | 32% | 36% | 29% | 31% | 34% | 25% | 42% | 45% | 45% | 42% | 32% | 21% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 18% | 32% | 50% | 21% | 35% | 44% | 26% | 74% | 13% | 87% |
| 5 | How much impact will your vote for President have on your vote for United States Representative? |
| 598 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Congressional Vo | Presidential Vot | Issue | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | FBI Announcement | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Republic | Independ | Democrat | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Faso | Teachout | Trump | Clinton | Economy | Corrupti | Health C | National | Environm | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Before | After | |
| Major | 28% | 24% | 31% | 22% | 16% | 31% | 35% | 18% | 33% | 37% | 28% | 28% | 14% | 24% | 28% | 38% | 33% | 21% | 33% | 32% | 26% | 27% | 27% | 29% | 30% | 30% | 24% | 29% | 32% | 30% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 26% | 27% | 31% | 26% | 26% | 29% | 32% | 27% |
| Minor | 19% | 19% | 19% | 30% | 21% | 14% | 19% | 25% | 16% | 11% | 22% | 22% | 24% | 25% | 19% | 15% | 16% | 24% | 17% | 17% | 22% | 22% | 17% | 21% | 18% | 19% | 20% | 24% | 13% | 15% | 24% | 18% | 22% | 18% | 21% | 21% | 18% | 16% | 20% | 19% | 19% |
| No Impact | 48% | 52% | 44% | 45% | 59% | 49% | 39% | 54% | 45% | 46% | 42% | 47% | 58% | 44% | 49% | 47% | 44% | 51% | 48% | 46% | 48% | 49% | 50% | 47% | 46% | 47% | 49% | 43% | 52% | 49% | 42% | 43% | 44% | 52% | 44% | 42% | 55% | 55% | 45% | 43% | 49% |
| Not Sure | 5% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 5% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 12% | 22% | 37% | 29% | 34% | 66% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 16% | 9% | 17% | 13% | 32% | 36% | 29% | 31% | 34% | 25% | 42% | 45% | 45% | 42% | 32% | 21% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 18% | 32% | 50% | 21% | 35% | 44% | 26% | 74% | 13% | 87% |
| 6 | Incumbent Chris Gibson chose not to run for re-election. Are you happy with the choice between John Faso and Zephyr Teachout? Or do you wish Gibson had decided to run again? |
| 598 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Congressional Vo | Presidential Vot | Issue | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | FBI Announcement | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Republic | Independ | Democrat | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Faso | Teachout | Trump | Clinton | Economy | Corrupti | Health C | National | Environm | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Before | After | |
| Happy With Choice | 40% | 40% | 39% | 38% | 35% | 41% | 42% | 36% | 42% | 42% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 52% | 50% | 75% | 33% | 31% | 61% | 34% | 28% | 69% | 28% | 59% | 29% | 53% | 34% | 36% | 47% | 26% | 74% | 34% | 37% | 44% | 42% | 37% | 41% | 29% | 43% | 46% | 39% |
| Wish Gibson Had Run | 41% | 41% | 40% | 17% | 44% | 43% | 44% | 35% | 44% | 36% | 58% | 52% | 50% | 37% | 35% | 15% | 47% | 47% | 26% | 49% | 49% | 21% | 56% | 28% | 49% | 33% | 44% | 44% | 43% | 52% | 18% | 44% | 44% | 38% | 39% | 41% | 43% | 33% | 43% | 42% | 40% |
| Not Sure | 20% | 19% | 21% | 45% | 21% | 15% | 14% | 30% | 15% | 22% | 18% | 24% | 25% | 11% | 16% | 10% | 20% | 21% | 13% | 16% | 24% | 10% | 17% | 13% | 22% | 14% | 22% | 20% | 10% | 22% | 9% | 23% | 19% | 18% | 19% | 22% | 16% | 38% | 13% | 12% | 21% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 12% | 22% | 37% | 29% | 34% | 66% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 16% | 9% | 17% | 13% | 32% | 36% | 29% | 31% | 34% | 25% | 42% | 45% | 45% | 42% | 32% | 21% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 18% | 32% | 50% | 21% | 35% | 44% | 26% | 74% | 13% | 87% |