Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13468
Clinton Ohio Defense Appears To Hold at Goal Line; Turns Back Obama Charge: 36 hours till votes are counted in the Ohio Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton appears to stop the momentum of Barack Obama by converting voters focused on health care, voters in Greater Cincinnati, and voters in greater Dayton to her cause. At the wire, it's Clinton 54%, Obama 44%, in SurveyUSA research conducted for WCMH-TV Columbus, WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WHIO-TV Dayton, and WKYC-TV Cleveland. Three weeks ago, Clinton led by 17. Two weeks ago, Clinton led by 9. One week ago, Clinton led by 6. Today: Clinton stops sliding. Obama has not polled more than 44% in any SurveyUSA tracking poll. Clinton has not polled less than 50% in any SurveyUSA tracking poll. Other telephone polls show the contest closer. One poll conducted by U.S. Mail shows the contest more lopsided. In SurveyUSA's data: the 16 minutes that Clinton spent arguing with Obama about health care at this week's NBC News debate appears to have paid off. Slightly more voters now name health care as the most important issue, and among those who do, Clinton today leads by 24 points, up from a 7-point lead last week. In greater Cincinnati, Clinton had trailed in two previous SurveyUSA tracking polls, but today leads by 19 points. In greater Dayton, the swing is smaller, but also to Clinton. In Southeast Ohio, Clinton has always led, but now leads overwhelmingly. If you combine these 3 regions and draw them on a map, they form a horseshoe, and trace the Ohio boundary that touches red-state Indiana on the West, red-state Kentucky on the South and red state West Virginia on the East. At this hour, that horseshoe is functioning as Clinton's firewall.
Interactive Tracking Graphs: SurveyUSA's exclusive interactive tracking graphs show this: Among white voters, Clinton gains, up from +18 last week to +26 today. Among registered Democrats, Clinton gains, up from +8 last week to +16 today. Among Moderates, Clinton gains, up from +4 last week to +13 today. Among those who attend church regularly, Clinton gains, up from +3 last week to +9 today. Among voters age 50+, Clinton gains, up from +18 last week to +28 today. Among voters under age 50, Clinton holds. She had been down 7. Is now down 6. Click on the "Triangle T" to access the Interactive Tracking Graphs.
Filtering / Caveats: 2,000 state of Ohio adults were interviewed 03/01/08 and 03/02/08. Of them, 1,805 were registered to vote. Of them, 873 told SurveyUSA they had already voted, or were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on Election Day. Of those who have already voted, Clinton leads by 13 points. For Obama to win Ohio, he would need to carry Primary Day precinct voters 52% to 48%. Reminder: Democratic Convention delegates are awarded proportionally, not winner-take-all -- so the difference between winning the state by 1 point and losing the state by 1 point is more symbolic than profound. However, should Clinton carry Ohio by the margins indicated here, the symbolism would be greater than if she won by 1 point.
If the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for...(names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? Or some other Democrat?
873 Likely And Actual VotersAllAlready Voted?GenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsAlready Likely VMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigratToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Composition of Likely And Actual Voters100%16%84%44%56%23%29%27%20%52%48%46%13%41%81%16%10%77%12%11%42%24%43%28%29%36%61%13%86%46%3%22%16%2%4%5%2%10%8%13%18%45%6%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.