Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21475 |
In FL Governor's Duel, Democrat Crist Now In the Spotlight, Democrat Crist Now In The Lead - Newly Atop Republican Scott in Dramatic Swing:
Charlie Crist made news last week when he named a running mate, and that appears to resonate with Florida's likely voters, who now have Crist 6 points atop Republican Rick Scott, 46% to 40%, according to WFLA-TV's latest tracking poll in the contest. 2 weeks ago, Crist trailed Scott by 2. As Crist has enjoyed nonstop media attention over the past 5 days, which happen to coincide with SurveyUSA's field period for this survey, Crist's poll numbers benefited as well. In 8 WFLA-TV / SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to 04/15/14, Crist has led on 5 occasions, though never by as much as the 6 points he does today. Scott has led in 3 of the 8 tracking polls, though never by more than 2 percentage points.
* Among women, Crist had led by 3, now leads by 10, a gain of 7 points. Looking ahead to the 2016 election for president in the pivotal state of Florida, hypothetical head-to-head polling by SurveyUSA for WFLA-TV shows the following:
* Hillary Clinton 49%.
* Chris Christie 48%.
* Hillary Clinton 46%.
* Rand Paul 47%.
* Hillary Clinton 53%.
* Marco Rubio 46%.
* Hillary Clinton 47%.
* Jeb Bush 47%. As always, cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 07/17/14 through 07/21/14. Of the adults, 839 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 564 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. |
564 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cuban | Non-Cuba | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Yes | Hispanic | White | Black | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | North We | North Ea | Central | South We | South Ea | |
Rick Scott (R) | 40% | 42% | 38% | 31% | 35% | 40% | 47% | 34% | 44% | 43% | 45% | 46% | 5% | 27% | 73% | 9% | 39% | 70% | 32% | 8% | 46% | 40% | 39% | 30% | 39% | 52% | 38% | 41% | 29% | 49% | 43% | 45% | 35% |
Charlie Crist (D) | 46% | 43% | 48% | 45% | 53% | 45% | 41% | 50% | 43% | 48% | 39% | 38% | 92% | 56% | 16% | 82% | 37% | 15% | 54% | 84% | 38% | 44% | 48% | 49% | 48% | 41% | 46% | 45% | 43% | 37% | 41% | 46% | 54% |
Other | 8% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 9% | 0% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 11% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 12% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 9% | 13% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 5% |
Undecided | 6% | 6% | 7% | 13% | 6% | 7% | 3% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 14% | 7% | 7% | 1% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 11% | 5% | 14% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 6% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 11% | 23% | 33% | 33% | 34% | 66% | 8% | 9% | 82% | 11% | 7% | 38% | 37% | 24% | 34% | 44% | 17% | 15% | 40% | 45% | 29% | 41% | 30% | 26% | 74% | 10% | 9% | 32% | 22% | 28% |
Should Charlie Crist debate Nan Rich, his opponent in the Democratic primary? Or not? |
564 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cuban | Non-Cuba | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Yes | Hispanic | White | Black | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | North We | North Ea | Central | South We | South Ea | |
Should | 68% | 76% | 61% | 71% | 77% | 72% | 57% | 75% | 65% | 63% | 82% | 70% | 56% | 64% | 67% | 66% | 73% | 69% | 68% | 72% | 48% | 73% | 71% | 67% | 72% | 64% | 81% | 64% | 78% | 63% | 73% | 61% | 66% |
Should Not | 14% | 11% | 18% | 15% | 6% | 15% | 19% | 9% | 17% | 25% | 1% | 13% | 29% | 10% | 11% | 21% | 9% | 9% | 17% | 14% | 17% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 17% | 4% | 18% | 6% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 18% |
Not Sure | 18% | 13% | 22% | 14% | 18% | 13% | 23% | 16% | 18% | 11% | 17% | 17% | 15% | 26% | 22% | 13% | 18% | 21% | 15% | 14% | 35% | 16% | 13% | 20% | 15% | 19% | 15% | 18% | 17% | 27% | 14% | 22% | 17% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 11% | 23% | 33% | 33% | 34% | 66% | 8% | 9% | 82% | 11% | 7% | 38% | 37% | 24% | 34% | 44% | 17% | 15% | 40% | 45% | 29% | 41% | 30% | 26% | 74% | 10% | 9% | 32% | 22% | 28% |
3 | Should Florida same-sex couples who wish to get married be given ... No legal recognition at all? ... The right to civil unions? ... Or the right to marry? |
564 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cuban | Non-Cuba | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Yes | Hispanic | White | Black | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | North We | North Ea | Central | South We | South Ea | |
No Recognition | 29% | 27% | 31% | 32% | 28% | 31% | 26% | 30% | 29% | 30% | 28% | 27% | 40% | 38% | 40% | 24% | 20% | 47% | 20% | 14% | 35% | 34% | 23% | 40% | 26% | 23% | 21% | 32% | 48% | 38% | 30% | 22% | 23% |
Civil Unions | 29% | 29% | 29% | 23% | 27% | 24% | 37% | 26% | 30% | 35% | 30% | 31% | 12% | 23% | 34% | 21% | 34% | 37% | 29% | 16% | 24% | 29% | 31% | 25% | 33% | 28% | 31% | 28% | 31% | 30% | 27% | 30% | 30% |
Marriage | 35% | 37% | 32% | 39% | 36% | 37% | 30% | 37% | 33% | 34% | 33% | 36% | 31% | 25% | 19% | 48% | 38% | 10% | 43% | 66% | 31% | 29% | 39% | 28% | 34% | 41% | 38% | 33% | 14% | 31% | 37% | 40% | 37% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 11% | 23% | 33% | 33% | 34% | 66% | 8% | 9% | 82% | 11% | 7% | 38% | 37% | 24% | 34% | 44% | 17% | 15% | 40% | 45% | 29% | 41% | 30% | 26% | 74% | 10% | 9% | 32% | 22% | 28% |
4 | Are you more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for Florida governor who supports legalizing same-sex marriage? Or does it make no difference? |
564 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cuban | Non-Cuba | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Yes | Hispanic | White | Black | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | North We | North Ea | Central | South We | South Ea | |
More Likely | 24% | 25% | 24% | 32% | 19% | 27% | 22% | 23% | 25% | 35% | 28% | 25% | 21% | 21% | 14% | 38% | 20% | 12% | 23% | 56% | 26% | 21% | 26% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 28% | 23% | 10% | 20% | 25% | 26% | 29% |
Less Likely | 36% | 33% | 40% | 34% | 39% | 34% | 37% | 37% | 36% | 31% | 33% | 35% | 44% | 34% | 48% | 28% | 32% | 60% | 28% | 10% | 34% | 42% | 33% | 41% | 34% | 36% | 28% | 39% | 62% | 36% | 36% | 30% | 33% |
No Difference | 36% | 39% | 33% | 29% | 38% | 36% | 38% | 35% | 37% | 26% | 29% | 36% | 34% | 39% | 34% | 32% | 46% | 26% | 46% | 33% | 35% | 35% | 38% | 32% | 39% | 37% | 39% | 35% | 26% | 42% | 34% | 43% | 34% |
Not Sure | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 7% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 4% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 11% | 23% | 33% | 33% | 34% | 66% | 8% | 9% | 82% | 11% | 7% | 38% | 37% | 24% | 34% | 44% | 17% | 15% | 40% | 45% | 29% | 41% | 30% | 26% | 74% | 10% | 9% | 32% | 22% | 28% |
5 | Thinking ahead now to the 2016 election for President of the United States ... If the 2016 election for President were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for? |
836 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cuban | Non-Cuba | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Yes | Hispanic | White | Black | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | North We | North Ea | Central | South We | South Ea | |
Chris Christie (R) | 38% | 39% | 37% | 25% | 31% | 39% | 50% | 28% | 44% | 42% | 23% | 44% | 6% | 25% | 70% | 11% | 35% | 70% | 30% | 11% | 36% | 37% | 40% | 29% | 40% | 45% | 28% | 42% | 43% | 48% | 38% | 39% | 32% |
Hillary Clinton (D) | 49% | 48% | 51% | 54% | 52% | 50% | 43% | 53% | 47% | 49% | 56% | 43% | 87% | 58% | 17% | 84% | 40% | 19% | 57% | 83% | 46% | 49% | 51% | 54% | 48% | 46% | 49% | 49% | 47% | 41% | 48% | 49% | 54% |
Undecided | 13% | 13% | 13% | 20% | 17% | 11% | 7% | 18% | 9% | 9% | 21% | 14% | 7% | 17% | 13% | 4% | 25% | 11% | 13% | 7% | 18% | 14% | 10% | 17% | 13% | 8% | 23% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 14% | 12% | 13% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 17% | 23% | 31% | 29% | 40% | 60% | 8% | 13% | 81% | 12% | 7% | 34% | 39% | 27% | 30% | 43% | 19% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 33% | 39% | 28% | 29% | 71% | 9% | 9% | 32% | 22% | 29% |
6 | What if the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Joe Biden? |
836 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cuban | Non-Cuba | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Yes | Hispanic | White | Black | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | North We | North Ea | Central | South We | South Ea | |
Chris Christie (R) | 48% | 48% | 47% | 33% | 47% | 49% | 54% | 41% | 52% | 53% | 40% | 54% | 7% | 40% | 84% | 16% | 47% | 79% | 43% | 19% | 44% | 46% | 51% | 34% | 52% | 58% | 45% | 49% | 52% | 48% | 49% | 53% | 41% |
Joe Biden (D) | 39% | 37% | 41% | 43% | 40% | 39% | 36% | 41% | 37% | 38% | 43% | 32% | 88% | 31% | 8% | 76% | 26% | 14% | 44% | 69% | 36% | 40% | 39% | 46% | 36% | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 34% | 36% | 37% | 46% |
Undecided | 13% | 14% | 13% | 24% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 17% | 11% | 10% | 17% | 13% | 5% | 28% | 8% | 8% | 27% | 7% | 14% | 12% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 20% | 12% | 8% | 21% | 10% | 12% | 18% | 16% | 9% | 13% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 17% | 23% | 31% | 29% | 40% | 60% | 8% | 13% | 81% | 12% | 7% | 34% | 39% | 27% | 30% | 43% | 19% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 33% | 39% | 28% | 29% | 71% | 9% | 9% | 32% | 22% | 29% |