Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14349
One Month, Two Conventions, and Two VP Picks Later, Presidential Race Unchanged in Minnesota: In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 09/12/08, 53 days to Election Day, Barack Obama and John McCain finish effectively even, according to this exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV in Duluth, KAAL-TV in Rochester, and KSAX-TV in Alexandria. Today, it's Obama 49%, McCain 47%, within the survey's 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, Obama and McCain are each up two points overall. Little has changed, and what changes have occurred appear to have offset one another.

Among men, McCain had led by 3, now leads by 5.
Among women, Obama had led by 9, still leads by 9.
Among voters who are younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 4, now leads by 5.
Among voters who are older than John McCain, a flip: McCain had led by 4, now trails by 4.
Among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, a flip in the opposite direction; Obama had led by 3, now trails by 3.

1 in 10 Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 1 in 10 Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; Independents favor McCain by 9 points, up from 2 points last month -- but at the same time, the percentage of Minnesota's likely voters who identify themselves as Independents has fallen from 24% last month to 16% today, blunting the impact and increasing the margin of error associated with this 7 point McCain climb.

In NE Minnesota, McCain today leads by 14 points, a flip from last month, when Obama led by 8. In Western MN, Obama had led by 5, now leads by 3, an effective tie. In Southern Minnesota, the two candidates remain tied. In the Twin Cities area, Obama moves from a tie to a 6-point lead.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Minnesota adults 09/10/08 through 09/11/08. Of them, 836 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 734 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Minnesota has 10 Electoral College votes. John Kerry carried Minnesota by 3 points in 2004; Al Gore carried the state by 2 points in 2000.
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?
734 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat< $50K> $50KTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheas
McCain (R)47%50%43%41%48%52%44%45%49%46%45%48%50%******89%10%50%85%38%8%44%49%54%45%29%72%28%42%48%45%**30%34%96%****82%42%50%45%46%47%55%
Obama (D)49%45%52%57%48%44%47%51%45%51%49%45%46%******10%88%41%12%57%90%51%46%42%50%67%24%68%44%50%52%**64%61%1%****14%53%47%51%47%50%41%
Composition of Adults100%50%50%23%35%24%18%58%42%51%10%40%92%3%2%3%31%39%16%30%39%16%50%50%56%24%20%42%55%22%77%55%3%11%7%7%3%4%5%34%66%58%14%15%13%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.