Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21818 |
As Fiance Cylvia Hayes Revelations Unfold, Oregon Yawns; Incumbent Dem Gov Kitzhaber Still Outpaces GOP Challenger Richardson; Ballot Measure #91, To Legalize Recreational Marijuana, Gains; Opposition Builds to Measure #92, Which Would Label Certain Foods: Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber's fiance, Cylvia Hayes, made as much news during the interviewing for this survey as did either of the 2 candidates for office. Yet Oregon voters seem to-date unfazed by the developments, and remain poised to re-elect the Governor to a 4th term, according to research conducted by SurveyUSA for KATU-TV in Portland. Kitzhaber today leads Republican Dennis Richardson by 13 points, 51% to 38%. In 3 previous KATU-TV polls, before Hayes was in the headlines, Kitzhaber led by 13 points, 12 points and 12 points. Voters who say Kitzhaber deserves almost all of the blame for the failure of "Cover Oregon," overwhelmingly vote for Richardson. Voters who say that Kitzhaber deserves none of the blame, overwhelmingly vote for Kitzhaber. Briefly overshadowed in some quarters by the week's events, is Oregon Ballot Measure 91, which would legalize recreational marijuana for adults age 21 and older. Today, "Yes" on 91 leads "No" 48% to 37%. Compared to an identical 09/25/14 SurveyUSA poll, Yes is up 4 points, No is down 3 points. Yes had led by 4, now leads by 11. Greater Portland supports 91 by 15 points. The "rest of Oregon" supports 91 by just 2 points. Caution: support for this measure is young. Opposition is old. Older voters are more reliable than younger voters in a mid-term election. Any outcome remains possible, though "Yes" has the upper hand at this hour. Opposition to Ballot Measure #92, which would require that certain genetically engineered foods be labeled, is up, support is down. A month ago, 92 led by 32 points. Today, 92 leads by just 7 points, 44% Yes to 37% No. Today, liberals support by 7:2. Conservatives oppose by 4:1. Any outcome is possible. All but lost on the radar screen is 1st-term Democratic incumbent US Senator Jeff Merkley, who continues to cruise to re-election. Merkley today leads Republican challenger Monica Wehby 53% to 32%. In 3 previous polls, Merkley led by 18 points, 19 points and 20 points. Today: 21 points. Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Oregon adults 10/16/14 through 10/19/14. Of the adults, 623 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 561 were determined by SurveyUSA to be return a ballot before the 11/04/14 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Interviewing for this survey was conducted during fast-moving news events. It is possible voters have not had time to digest some of the news as yet. In that case, these numbers may change again between now and Election Day. |
![]() | If you were filling out your ballot for Oregon governor today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Dennis Richardson? Democrat John Kitzhaber? Or some other candidate? |
561 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | ACA Impact | Cover Oregon Impact | Kitzhaber Blame | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | All | Most | Some | None | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Portland | Rest of | |
Dennis Richardson (R) | 38% | 46% | 30% | 26% | 45% | 35% | 41% | 38% | 38% | 57% | 28% | 20% | 70% | 28% | 10% | 86% | 58% | 18% | 4% | 39% | 38% | 77% | 12% | 36% | 83% | 31% | 13% | 43% | 33% | 40% | 28% | 40% | 43% | 29% | 41% | 37% | 39% |
John Kitzhaber (D) | 51% | 48% | 54% | 57% | 45% | 54% | 49% | 49% | 52% | 33% | 62% | 71% | 20% | 61% | 82% | 7% | 23% | 71% | 93% | 52% | 51% | 12% | 81% | 48% | 8% | 57% | 78% | 39% | 57% | 50% | 57% | 49% | 50% | 54% | 50% | 51% | 51% |
Other | 6% | 3% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 1% | 9% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 11% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 9% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 7% | 6% | 4% |
Undecided | 6% | 3% | 8% | 12% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 9% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 14% | 3% | 6% | 6% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 17% | 25% | 33% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 30% | 25% | 38% | 26% | 32% | 22% | 18% | 38% | 16% | 9% | 91% | 30% | 43% | 27% | 24% | 44% | 27% | 16% | 42% | 43% | 32% | 41% | 27% | 28% | 72% | 66% | 34% |
561 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | ACA Impact | Cover Oregon Impact | Kitzhaber Blame | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | All | Most | Some | None | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Portland | Rest of | |
Monica Wehby (R) | 32% | 42% | 24% | 28% | 34% | 30% | 37% | 31% | 33% | 53% | 20% | 17% | 60% | 22% | 10% | 74% | 41% | 19% | 4% | 39% | 32% | 63% | 11% | 33% | 72% | 24% | 15% | 42% | 30% | 32% | 25% | 34% | 36% | 28% | 34% | 32% | 32% |
Jeff Merkley (D) | 53% | 46% | 60% | 52% | 45% | 60% | 53% | 48% | 57% | 35% | 65% | 72% | 26% | 61% | 81% | 13% | 35% | 70% | 89% | 53% | 53% | 17% | 81% | 50% | 10% | 61% | 79% | 41% | 57% | 54% | 60% | 50% | 51% | 53% | 53% | 52% | 55% |
Other | 7% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 10% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 3% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 9% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 9% | 8% | 6% |
Undecided | 8% | 7% | 8% | 13% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 12% | 4% | 5% | 9% | 4% | 5% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 16% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 8% | 9% | 4% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 2% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 17% | 4% | 8% | 7% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 17% | 25% | 33% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 30% | 25% | 38% | 26% | 32% | 22% | 18% | 38% | 16% | 9% | 91% | 30% | 43% | 27% | 24% | 44% | 27% | 16% | 42% | 43% | 32% | 41% | 27% | 28% | 72% | 66% | 34% |
561 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | ACA Impact | Cover Oregon Impact | Kitzhaber Blame | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | All | Most | Some | None | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Portland | Rest of | |
Major Factor | 42% | 45% | 39% | 35% | 44% | 39% | 49% | 40% | 43% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 77% | 24% | 16% | 76% | 51% | 28% | 29% | 37% | 42% | 54% | 37% | 36% | 61% | 34% | 37% | 54% | 39% | 40% | 40% | 42% | 42% | 34% | 45% | 41% | 45% |
Minor Factor | 30% | 30% | 30% | 42% | 28% | 31% | 23% | 34% | 28% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 18% | 58% | 25% | 13% | 32% | 44% | 20% | 34% | 30% | 24% | 31% | 37% | 18% | 39% | 29% | 24% | 33% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 31% | 39% | 27% | 33% | 25% |
Not a Factor | 25% | 23% | 26% | 20% | 21% | 28% | 27% | 21% | 28% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 5% | 17% | 56% | 11% | 16% | 26% | 46% | 27% | 25% | 20% | 29% | 24% | 17% | 25% | 32% | 21% | 25% | 26% | 24% | 26% | 26% | 19% | 27% | 24% | 27% |
Not Sure | 3% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 3% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 17% | 25% | 33% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 30% | 25% | 38% | 26% | 32% | 22% | 18% | 38% | 16% | 9% | 91% | 30% | 43% | 27% | 24% | 44% | 27% | 16% | 42% | 43% | 32% | 41% | 27% | 28% | 72% | 66% | 34% |
![]() | How much of a factor will the failure of Cover Oregon be in determining how you will vote in the race for Governor? |
561 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | ACA Impact | Cover Oregon Impact | Kitzhaber Blame | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | All | Most | Some | None | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Portland | Rest of | |
Major Factor | 38% | 46% | 31% | 31% | 45% | 36% | 40% | 39% | 38% | 70% | 22% | 8% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 85% | 49% | 24% | 4% | 34% | 39% | 58% | 26% | 37% | 64% | 35% | 23% | 53% | 37% | 34% | 35% | 40% | 40% | 34% | 40% | 35% | 44% |
Minor Factor | 26% | 23% | 29% | 42% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 31% | 23% | 15% | 50% | 18% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 9% | 39% | 35% | 17% | 33% | 25% | 26% | 25% | 27% | 21% | 32% | 22% | 17% | 28% | 27% | 24% | 27% | 26% | 32% | 24% | 29% | 20% |
Not a Factor | 32% | 29% | 34% | 23% | 28% | 39% | 33% | 26% | 36% | 12% | 27% | 72% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 5% | 10% | 38% | 76% | 31% | 32% | 13% | 44% | 34% | 12% | 30% | 52% | 24% | 32% | 35% | 35% | 30% | 32% | 28% | 34% | 32% | 32% |
Not Sure | 4% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 17% | 25% | 33% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 30% | 25% | 38% | 26% | 32% | 22% | 18% | 38% | 16% | 9% | 91% | 30% | 43% | 27% | 24% | 44% | 27% | 16% | 42% | 43% | 32% | 41% | 27% | 28% | 72% | 66% | 34% |
![]() | How much of the blame do you think Governor John Kitzhaber personally deserves for the failure of Cover Oregon? Almost all of it? Most of it? Some of it? Or almost none of it? |
561 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | ACA Impact | Cover Oregon Impact | Kitzhaber Blame | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | All | Most | Some | None | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Portland | Rest of | |
All | 22% | 29% | 15% | 10% | 23% | 20% | 31% | 18% | 25% | 40% | 10% | 10% | 49% | 7% | 3% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 29% | 21% | 40% | 12% | 18% | 49% | 14% | 13% | 33% | 20% | 20% | 21% | 22% | 20% | 8% | 27% | 21% | 24% |
Most | 18% | 17% | 20% | 14% | 24% | 19% | 16% | 20% | 18% | 22% | 20% | 12% | 23% | 27% | 6% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 9% | 19% | 28% | 11% | 19% | 22% | 23% | 6% | 16% | 19% | 18% | 11% | 21% | 23% | 17% | 19% | 20% | 16% |
Some | 38% | 35% | 41% | 47% | 33% | 41% | 33% | 38% | 38% | 25% | 55% | 40% | 24% | 52% | 45% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 40% | 38% | 21% | 48% | 42% | 21% | 46% | 43% | 32% | 36% | 42% | 40% | 36% | 40% | 47% | 34% | 39% | 36% |
None | 16% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 18% | 14% | 17% | 17% | 15% | 11% | 11% | 29% | 2% | 11% | 38% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 19% | 16% | 8% | 23% | 14% | 3% | 15% | 27% | 10% | 17% | 17% | 18% | 16% | 15% | 19% | 15% | 15% | 17% |
Not Sure | 6% | 4% | 7% | 14% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 2% | 3% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 3% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 7% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 17% | 25% | 33% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 30% | 25% | 38% | 26% | 32% | 22% | 18% | 38% | 16% | 9% | 91% | 30% | 43% | 27% | 24% | 44% | 27% | 16% | 42% | 43% | 32% | 41% | 27% | 28% | 72% | 66% | 34% |
561 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | ACA Impact | Cover Oregon Impact | Kitzhaber Blame | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | All | Most | Some | None | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Portland | Rest of | |
Yes | 48% | 50% | 45% | 71% | 42% | 51% | 33% | 54% | 43% | 43% | 59% | 45% | 38% | 57% | 53% | 28% | 44% | 56% | 55% | 51% | 47% | 25% | 60% | 52% | 18% | 52% | 67% | 41% | 55% | 43% | 54% | 47% | 44% | 66% | 40% | 50% | 43% |
No | 37% | 37% | 37% | 20% | 36% | 36% | 51% | 29% | 43% | 45% | 26% | 37% | 52% | 28% | 28% | 62% | 44% | 25% | 27% | 46% | 36% | 62% | 25% | 30% | 73% | 30% | 19% | 46% | 33% | 38% | 34% | 39% | 35% | 21% | 44% | 35% | 41% |
Not Certain | 15% | 13% | 17% | 8% | 22% | 13% | 15% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 15% | 18% | 11% | 15% | 19% | 9% | 12% | 19% | 19% | 3% | 16% | 13% | 15% | 18% | 9% | 18% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 19% | 11% | 14% | 21% | 13% | 16% | 14% | 16% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 17% | 25% | 33% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 30% | 25% | 38% | 26% | 32% | 22% | 18% | 38% | 16% | 9% | 91% | 30% | 43% | 27% | 24% | 44% | 27% | 16% | 42% | 43% | 32% | 41% | 27% | 28% | 72% | 66% | 34% |
![]() | Next, Measure 92, which would require some genetically engineered food to be labeled as such. On Measure 92, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? |
561 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | ACA Impact | Cover Oregon Impact | Kitzhaber Blame | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | Major Fa | Minor Fa | Not a Fa | All | Most | Some | None | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Portland | Rest of | |
Yes | 44% | 45% | 44% | 70% | 42% | 42% | 33% | 53% | 38% | 41% | 49% | 45% | 35% | 49% | 51% | 31% | 33% | 54% | 57% | 56% | 43% | 27% | 53% | 49% | 29% | 47% | 53% | 39% | 44% | 47% | 49% | 43% | 42% | 59% | 39% | 42% | 49% |
No | 37% | 40% | 34% | 15% | 37% | 37% | 51% | 28% | 43% | 45% | 33% | 32% | 52% | 33% | 25% | 59% | 44% | 25% | 25% | 40% | 37% | 53% | 28% | 34% | 56% | 34% | 27% | 48% | 39% | 31% | 30% | 41% | 39% | 23% | 42% | 39% | 33% |
Not Certain | 19% | 15% | 22% | 15% | 21% | 21% | 16% | 19% | 18% | 14% | 19% | 23% | 13% | 18% | 24% | 10% | 24% | 21% | 18% | 4% | 20% | 20% | 18% | 18% | 15% | 19% | 20% | 13% | 17% | 22% | 20% | 17% | 19% | 18% | 19% | 19% | 18% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 17% | 25% | 33% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 30% | 25% | 38% | 26% | 32% | 22% | 18% | 38% | 16% | 9% | 91% | 30% | 43% | 27% | 24% | 44% | 27% | 16% | 42% | 43% | 32% | 41% | 27% | 28% | 72% | 66% | 34% |