Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13708
In Oregon CD #5, Erickson and Mannix Neck & Neck GOP Primary Fight: In a Republican Primary in Oregon's 5th Congressional district today, 04/16/08, five weeks until votes are counted, businessman and 2006 Republican Nominee Mike Erickson is locked in a fierce fight with former state GOP chair Kevin Mannix, according to this latest KATU-TV news poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Today, it's Erickson 44%, Mannix 40%, within the survey's 5.0 percentage point margin of sampling error. Erickson leads by 25 points among those age 50+; Mannix leads by 22 among those under 50. Erickson leads by 30 among Pro-Choice voters. Mannix leads by 8 among Pro-Life voters. Erickson leads by 28 among moderates; conservatives, who make up two-thirds of the likely voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model, narrowly prefer Mannix. Incumbent Democrat Darlene Hooley is retiring. The U.S. House seat is open.
Filtering: 1,600 adults from Oregon's 5th congressional district were interviewed 04/13/08 through 04/15/08. Of them, 1,526 were registered to vote. Of them, 396 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/08 closed Republican primary election for the U.S. House of Representatives. All voting is by U.S. mail. Ballots may be returned until 8 pm on 05/20/08.
If the Republican Primary for U.S. House of Representatives were today, would you vote for... (names rotated) Mike Erickson? Kevin Mannix? Or some other Republican?
396 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyAttend Religious ServiceAbortion
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicConservaModerateLiberalRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choi
Other / Undecided17%18%14%18%16%18%15%16%17%16%37%12%24%**12%24%22%14%22%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%56%44%11%32%30%27%43%57%93%5%65%27%3%62%17%21%67%32%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.