| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27220 |
| On Eve of VP Pick, Kamala Harris, Buoyed By Women, Leads Donald Trump Nationally by 3 Points:
SurveyUSA's latest nationwide polling shows Democrat Kamala Harris leading Republican Donald Trump by 3 points in an election held today, August 5 2024. Today it's Harris 48%, Trump 45%; 3% of likely voters say they will vote for another candidate; 4% say they are undecided. Trump leads by 12 points among men; Harris leads by 18 among women – a 30-point gender gap. When we break out men and women by their ethnicity, the enthusiasm for Harris seen among women of color, and especially among Black women, is clear:
Elsewhere, Trump leads by 4 points among the youngest voters, those 18 to 34; Harris leads by 10 points among those 35 to 49, by a nominal single point among those 50 to 64, and by 4 points among the oldest and typically most reliable voters. White voters taken as a whole prefer Trump by 13 points; Black voters prefer Harris by 53; Latino, Asian, and other voters prefer Harris by 19. Trump leads by 9 points among voters with high school educations, by a nominal single point among those who have attended some college; Harris leads by 15 points among those with 4-year college degrees. Regionally, Trump leads by 5 points in the South; Harris leads by 3 in the Midwest, by 5 in the Northeast, and by 10 points in the West. Fully crosstabbed results follow ... |
| About the Research / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,950 adults from the entire United States 08/02/24 through 08/04/24. Of the adults, 1,668 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 1,510 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November election for President and were asked how they would vote. This research was conducted online, using nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to US Census ACS targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership, and to recalled 2020 presidential vote. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote? |
| 1950 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Race By Gender | Parent <18 | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely Voter? | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | US Census Regions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 1.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | White Me | White Wo | Black Me | Black Wo | Latino M | Latino W | Other Me | Other Wo | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Certain | Probable | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | $80K - $ | > $120K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Northeas | Midwest | South | West | |
| Yes | 86% | 85% | 86% | 82% | 85% | 85% | 92% | 83% | 88% | 87% | 86% | 79% | 87% | 87% | 87% | 86% | 85% | 79% | 79% | 87% | 87% | 88% | 85% | 91% | 92% | 77% | 90% | 89% | 83% | 91% | 93% | 90% | 83% | 92% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 95% | 78% | 86% | 95% | 75% | 87% | 90% | 94% | 92% | 74% | 86% | 87% | 81% | 86% | 88% | 90% | 85% | 85% | 84% |
| No | 13% | 13% | 13% | 16% | 13% | 13% | 7% | 15% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 16% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 14% | 9% | 7% | 19% | 8% | 9% | 15% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 15% | 6% | - | - | 4% | 4% | 19% | 13% | 5% | 22% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 7% | 22% | 13% | 11% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 13% | 14% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | - | - | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 49% | 51% | 29% | 24% | 24% | 22% | 54% | 46% | 60% | 12% | 17% | 11% | 30% | 31% | 5% | 6% | 9% | 9% | 5% | 6% | 31% | 68% | 34% | 37% | 24% | 18% | 19% | 36% | 12% | 12% | 36% | 36% | 24% | 76% | 14% | 38% | 41% | 38% | 29% | 33% | 30% | 31% | 20% | 18% | 65% | 35% | 30% | 48% | 22% | 23% | 25% | 17% | 21% | 38% | 23% |
| 2 | America will hold an election for President of the United States and for other offices in November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Which best describes you? |
| 1668 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Race By Gender | Parent <18 | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely Voter? | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | US Census Regions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | White Me | White Wo | Black Me | Black Wo | Latino M | Latino W | Other Me | Other Wo | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Certain | Probable | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | $80K - $ | > $120K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Northeas | Midwest | South | West | |
| Certain To Vote | 76% | 78% | 75% | 65% | 73% | 81% | 89% | 68% | 85% | 79% | 72% | 71% | 73% | 79% | 79% | 73% | 71% | 76% | 66% | 80% | 67% | 78% | 76% | 83% | 77% | 66% | 86% | 78% | 67% | 82% | 85% | 82% | 67% | 83% | 100% | 0% | 83% | 81% | 71% | 73% | 84% | 67% | 78% | 78% | 84% | 80% | 67% | 71% | 79% | 76% | 81% | 77% | 75% | 77% | 76% | 76% |
| Will Probably Vote | 14% | 15% | 14% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 6% | 20% | 8% | 14% | 18% | 16% | 12% | 15% | 12% | 17% | 18% | 16% | 16% | 9% | 16% | 16% | 13% | 11% | 15% | 18% | 10% | 14% | 19% | 12% | 9% | 12% | 19% | 10% | 0% | 100% | 11% | 14% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 17% | 12% | 16% | 11% | 13% | 17% | 18% | 12% | 15% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 16% |
| About 50/50 | 6% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 3% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 10% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 9% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 9% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 6% |
| Probably Will Not Vote | 3% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Not Sure | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 28% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 52% | 48% | 62% | 12% | 16% | 11% | 30% | 31% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 32% | 67% | 37% | 40% | 21% | 19% | 19% | 35% | 13% | 13% | 38% | 35% | 26% | 76% | 14% | 42% | 46% | 34% | 29% | 37% | 27% | 32% | 21% | 20% | 70% | 30% | 30% | 49% | 21% | 23% | 26% | 18% | 21% | 38% | 23% |
| 3 | Now think about this year's election for President, coming up this November.
If the November 2024 election for President were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? |
| 1510 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Race By Gender | Parent <18 | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely Voter? | 2020 President | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | US Census Regions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | White Me | White Wo | Black Me | Black Wo | Latino M | Latino W | Other Me | Other Wo | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Certain | Probable | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | $80K - $ | > $120K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Northeas | Midwest | South | West | |
| Donald Trump (R) | 45% | 52% | 38% | 50% | 40% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 53% | 19% | 38% | 36% | 59% | 48% | 29% | 10% | 50% | 25% | 41% | 31% | 46% | 45% | 90% | 7% | 41% | 84% | 74% | 34% | 9% | 11% | 79% | 34% | 10% | 47% | 37% | 90% | 6% | 51% | 47% | 39% | 43% | 46% | 52% | 40% | 46% | 44% | 41% | 45% | 52% | 53% | 37% | 45% | 45% | 48% | 41% |
| Kamala Harris (D) | 48% | 40% | 56% | 46% | 50% | 46% | 49% | 48% | 48% | 40% | 72% | 57% | 55% | 34% | 46% | 58% | 84% | 45% | 71% | 49% | 61% | 48% | 48% | 6% | 90% | 41% | 14% | 18% | 54% | 87% | 87% | 16% | 54% | 87% | 48% | 47% | 6% | 88% | 42% | 46% | 54% | 51% | 46% | 43% | 52% | 47% | 51% | 55% | 47% | 40% | 38% | 55% | 50% | 48% | 44% | 51% |
| Other | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 11% | 1% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Undecided | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 10% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 27% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 51% | 49% | 63% | 12% | 15% | 10% | 31% | 32% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 33% | 66% | 38% | 41% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 33% | 14% | 13% | 39% | 33% | 27% | 84% | 16% | 44% | 48% | 33% | 29% | 39% | 25% | 32% | 22% | 21% | 72% | 28% | 29% | 49% | 21% | 24% | 26% | 18% | 21% | 38% | 23% |