Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13283
Connecticut -- The Entire Democratic Nomination Battle Boiled Down to Its Essence: Few if any states present as perfect a microcosm of the Hillary Clinton - Barack Obama drama as does Connecticut. Men back Obama. Women back Clinton. Young voters back Obama. Older voters back Clinton. White voters split. Black voters back Obama. Hispanics back Clinton. Moderates back Clinton. Liberals back Obama. Voters focused on Health Care back Clinton. Voters focused on Iraq split. Voters focused on the Economy split. When all is added up, 4 days to the 02/05/08 Primary, it's Obama 48%, Clinton 44%, within the survey's 3.8 point margin of sampling error. Effectively tied. Given that 29% of voters say they may yet change their mind, it's not just tied, it's fluid. Obama leads in greater Hartford and New Haven. Clinton leads in the rest of the state. Relative turnout of men vs women, young vs old, white vs black, will largely shape the outcome.
Filtering / Timing: 2,300 state of CT adults were interviewed 01/30/08 and 01/31/08. All interviews completed after results of the Florida Primary were known. All interviews completed after John Edwards withdrew from the race. All interviews completed before the Democratic debate in California that began 8 pm ET on 01/31/08. During the field period for this survey, Obama received prominent endorsements. Of the adults interviewed, 2,011 were registered to vote. Of them, 679 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 02/05/08 Primary.
If the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for...(names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? Or some other Democrat?
679 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherConservaModerateLiberalRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigratFairfielHartfordNew HaveRest of
Composition of Likely Voters100%45%55%16%33%32%19%49%51%77%13%7%4%8%46%30%40%27%32%24%73%29%70%40%6%16%21%3%3%5%4%23%28%27%22%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.