| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19229 |
| 3 Weeks From San Diego Mayor Primary, DeMaio Appears to Lock-Up 1 of 2 Runoff Spots, But Who Will He Face in November?
In an election for Mayor of San Diego today, 05/14/12, with early voting already begun, Carl DeMaio is well positioned to advance to a November runoff, with a fierce fight for the 2nd runoff position, according to SurveyUSA's 4th and latest poll conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV.
Today, City Council Member DeMaio gets 31%. State Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher and Congressman Bob Filner tie for the 2nd runoff spot, each with 21%. Bonnie Dumanis is further back. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago, DeMaio is up 3 points, Fletcher is down 5 points, Filner is up 1. SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graphs show the poll-on-poll changes among each demographic subgroup, and show Fletcher's rise and fall. Early voting began 05/07/12. Among the 12% of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, DeMaio has 37%; Filner has 20%; Fletcher and Dumanis each have 16%. Among the 88% who tell SurveyUSA they have not yet voted but are certain to do so on or before 06/05/12, the contest is closer. Filner's support is older, Democrat, and lower income; older voters are the most reliable. Fletcher's support is male, middle-aged and moderate. DeMaio's support is Hispanic, Republican, conservative and Tea Party. Voter turnout will determine whether Filner or Fletcher advance to an almost-certain runoff. San Diego Proposition B, which would replace pensions with 401(k)-style plans for most newly hired city employees, passes today with 54% of likely voters certain they will vote "yes" on the measure, 22% certain they will vote "no." 24% are not yet certain how they will vote. Compared to 1 month ago, opposition to Proposition B up 7 points. Typically, opposition to ballot measures increases as elections near. Republicans support the measure 7:1; conservatives support 5:1; Democrats and liberals support the measure 4:3. |
| Cell phone respondents and home phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 San Diego adults 05/11/12 through 05/13/12. Of them, 644 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 525 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote in the 06/05/12 primary. If no one candidate receives a majority of the vote in the primary, the top two finishers will advance to a 11/06/12 general election. Incumbent Mayor Jerry Sanders is term-limited. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents with a home telephone (87% of adults, 89% of likely voters) were interviewed in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents without a home telephone (13% of adults, 11% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone or other electronic device. |
 | If the primary election for San Diego mayor were today, who would you vote for?(candidate names rotated) Carl DeMaio? Bonnie Dumanis? Bob Filner? Nathan Fletcher? Or some other candidate? |
| 525 Actual & Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | College Grad | Income | ||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Carl DeMaio | 31% | 34% | 28% | 27% | 31% | 31% | 38% | 29% | 34% | 29% | 14% | 36% | 35% | 22% | 32% | 37% | 30% | 52% | 15% | 36% | 58% | 27% | 57% | 24% | 18% | 29% | 33% | 31% | 30% | 33% |
| Bonnie Dumanis | 13% | 13% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 9% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 16% | 18% | 6% | 20% | 12% | 16% | 12% | 12% | 15% | 10% | 16% | 12% | 14% | 10% | 16% | 13% | 13% | 15% | 12% | 12% |
| Bob Filner | 21% | 21% | 22% | 18% | 18% | 24% | 28% | 18% | 26% | 22% | 36% | 14% | 24% | 12% | 23% | 20% | 22% | 7% | 33% | 16% | 6% | 25% | 6% | 22% | 34% | 21% | 20% | 27% | 19% | 18% |
| Nathan Fletcher | 21% | 23% | 18% | 18% | 24% | 25% | 13% | 21% | 20% | 24% | 16% | 25% | 8% | 12% | 22% | 16% | 22% | 19% | 24% | 16% | 16% | 23% | 17% | 27% | 17% | 20% | 23% | 11% | 23% | 25% |
| Other | 6% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 11% | 0% | 7% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 16% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 6% |
| Undecided | 8% | 4% | 13% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 11% | 5% | 7% | 16% | 2% | 16% | 34% | 5% | 1% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 1% | 8% | 4% | 11% | 6% | 10% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Actual & Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 28% | 29% | 26% | 18% | 57% | 43% | 53% | 6% | 23% | 18% | 11% | 89% | 12% | 88% | 29% | 46% | 24% | 15% | 79% | 27% | 41% | 27% | 63% | 37% | 23% | 35% | 43% |
 | On Proposition B, which would replace pensions with 401(k)-style plans for most newly hired city employees, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? |
| 525 Actual & Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | College Grad | Income | ||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Yes | 54% | 61% | 46% | 52% | 60% | 53% | 50% | 56% | 51% | 57% | 34% | 63% | 42% | 57% | 54% | 63% | 53% | 73% | 43% | 52% | 75% | 51% | 69% | 55% | 40% | 57% | 47% | 38% | 54% | 62% |
| No | 22% | 23% | 21% | 23% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 23% | 22% | 21% | 37% | 16% | 29% | 23% | 22% | 26% | 22% | 10% | 29% | 25% | 11% | 26% | 13% | 24% | 30% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 24% | 20% |
| Not Certain | 24% | 15% | 33% | 24% | 18% | 26% | 29% | 21% | 27% | 22% | 29% | 21% | 29% | 20% | 24% | 11% | 25% | 17% | 28% | 23% | 14% | 23% | 18% | 21% | 31% | 21% | 28% | 37% | 21% | 18% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Actual & Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 28% | 29% | 26% | 18% | 57% | 43% | 53% | 6% | 23% | 18% | 11% | 89% | 12% | 88% | 29% | 46% | 24% | 15% | 79% | 27% | 41% | 27% | 63% | 37% | 23% | 35% | 43% |