| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26514 |
| Will Votes Be Counted Fairly This Fall? 7 of 10 North Carolina Biden Voters Have Full Confidence, But Just 1 in 10 Trump Voters Agree
2024 Trump/Biden Rematch Looks To Be Every Bit As Tight As 2020 Contest Among North Carolina's Registered Voters, 25 Months Out:
Overall, 39% of North Carolina voters who are likely or certain to vote this fall say they have "full confidence" their votes will be counted accurately, with another 32% having some confidence, according to SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for WRAL-TV in Raleigh. 18% say they have little confidence; 9% say they have no confidence. Behind those numbers, partisan differences are significant. 60% of Democrats say they have full confidence, as do 42% of independents, but just 15% of Republicans. Republicans, at 17%, are more than three times as likely as Democrats or independents to say they have no confidence. Among those who voted for Joe Biden in 2020, 69% have full confidence in this November's election counting, 22% some confidence; 5% have little, 2% have none. Among those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020, just 11% have full confidence, 41% some, 29% little – and 16%, 8 times as many as among Biden voters, say they have no confidence. Looking ahead to the a hypothetical 2024 election for President in North Carolina where Donald Trump once again faces Joe Biden, among registered voters, SurveyUSA today finds Biden nominally ahead, 45% to 43%, with 12% of voters undecided. 91% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 say they would vote for him again in 2024; 91% of those who voted for Trump in 2020 say they would vote for him again in 2024. 7% of each potential candidate's 2020 base is undecided. |
| About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,100 North Carolina adults 09/28/2022 through 10/02/2022. Of the adults, 918 are registered to vote in North Carolina. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 677 as being likely to cast a ballot in the November election for United States Senate. Those likely voters were asked how confident they were votes in the upcoming November 2022 election would be counted accurately; all 918 registered voters were then asked how they would vote in a 2024 Presidential rematch. This research was conducted online among a representative cross section of North Carolina adults, selected at random by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Adult respondents were weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home-ownership. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of North Carolina? |
| 1100 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Registration | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely November | 2020 Vote | Gun Owning HH | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Likely | Certain | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | |
| Yes | 83% | 85% | 82% | 76% | 83% | 86% | 92% | 79% | 89% | 86% | 86% | 75% | 63% | 90% | 93% | 76% | 89% | 91% | 82% | 89% | 90% | 85% | 87% | 87% | 90% | 85% | 87% | 100% | 100% | 94% | 97% | 87% | 83% | 83% | 85% | 76% | 83% | 93% | 78% | 84% | 92% | 89% | 73% | 84% | 84% | 82% | 83% | 84% | 85% | 80% |
| No | 14% | 12% | 15% | 20% | 14% | 12% | 7% | 17% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 18% | 34% | 8% | 5% | 21% | 10% | 8% | 15% | 9% | 9% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 13% | 12% | - | - | 6% | 3% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 12% | 20% | 14% | 6% | 18% | 14% | 7% | 9% | 22% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 11% | 14% | 16% |
| Not Sure | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | - | - | 1% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 48% | 52% | 30% | 25% | 26% | 20% | 54% | 46% | 63% | 20% | 10% | 7% | 33% | 32% | 25% | 32% | 32% | 29% | 15% | 21% | 35% | 14% | 6% | 36% | 35% | 20% | 20% | 53% | 37% | 37% | 41% | 54% | 33% | 65% | 39% | 31% | 31% | 41% | 37% | 22% | 65% | 35% | 17% | 44% | 39% | 35% | 17% | 30% | 18% |
| 2 | North Carolina will elect a United States Senator in November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Would you say you are ... ? |
| 918 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Registration | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely November | 2020 Vote | Gun Owning HH | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Likely | Certain | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | |
| Certain Not To Vote | 4% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 0% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 9% | 4% | 3% |
| Unlikely To Vote | 6% | 7% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 9% | 9% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 2% |
| Maybe 50% / 50% | 15% | 13% | 17% | 21% | 17% | 13% | 9% | 19% | 11% | 15% | 15% | 10% | 23% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 16% | 8% | 12% | 21% | 12% | 6% | 11% | 21% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 16% | 20% | 13% | 19% | 16% | 10% | 15% | 16% | 13% | 12% | 22% | 15% | 14% | 17% | 15% | 13% | 15% | 17% |
| Likely To Vote | 20% | 19% | 21% | 25% | 23% | 17% | 17% | 24% | 17% | 21% | 20% | 14% | 21% | 20% | 19% | 27% | 19% | 19% | 25% | 13% | 21% | 24% | 19% | 20% | 18% | 24% | 20% | 100% | 0% | 21% | 19% | 20% | 21% | 24% | 19% | 18% | 20% | 23% | 22% | 18% | 22% | 20% | 22% | 24% | 19% | 21% | 26% | 20% | 18% | 15% |
| 100% Certain To Vote | 53% | 55% | 52% | 33% | 49% | 67% | 67% | 41% | 67% | 56% | 44% | 57% | 51% | 59% | 54% | 47% | 58% | 56% | 46% | 69% | 56% | 44% | 57% | 67% | 61% | 44% | 60% | 0% | 100% | 60% | 57% | 55% | 53% | 46% | 57% | 47% | 52% | 61% | 51% | 53% | 58% | 60% | 39% | 47% | 55% | 54% | 51% | 50% | 53% | 61% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 27% | 24% | 26% | 22% | 51% | 49% | 65% | 21% | 9% | 5% | 36% | 36% | 22% | 34% | 34% | 29% | 16% | 23% | 36% | 14% | 7% | 39% | 36% | 21% | 20% | 53% | 41% | 43% | 43% | 54% | 32% | 66% | 35% | 30% | 34% | 39% | 38% | 24% | 69% | 31% | 17% | 45% | 38% | 35% | 17% | 30% | 18% |
| 3 | How much confidence do you have that votes in the election will be counted accurately? |
| 677 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Registration | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely November | 2020 Vote | Gun Owning HH | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Likely | Certain | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | |
| Full Confidence | 39% | 39% | 38% | 26% | 40% | 41% | 45% | 34% | 43% | 35% | 55% | 38% | 31% | 18% | 61% | 41% | 15% | 60% | 42% | 17% | 24% | 47% | 60% | 62% | 21% | 47% | 61% | 28% | 43% | 11% | 69% | 33% | 45% | 32% | 42% | 34% | 36% | 44% | 36% | 38% | 44% | 37% | 43% | 42% | 42% | 33% | 30% | 43% | 46% | 41% |
| Some Confidence | 32% | 33% | 31% | 36% | 26% | 34% | 31% | 31% | 33% | 35% | 23% | 26% | 30% | 38% | 26% | 33% | 39% | 27% | 30% | 35% | 43% | 28% | 30% | 15% | 40% | 28% | 25% | 39% | 29% | 41% | 22% | 31% | 32% | 26% | 34% | 36% | 30% | 30% | 35% | 30% | 30% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 32% | 31% | 35% | 31% | 29% | 32% |
| Little Confidence | 18% | 17% | 18% | 25% | 20% | 16% | 12% | 22% | 14% | 20% | 9% | 18% | 21% | 27% | 7% | 17% | 27% | 7% | 19% | 27% | 22% | 17% | 3% | 9% | 24% | 17% | 5% | 19% | 17% | 29% | 5% | 22% | 13% | 26% | 13% | 14% | 20% | 18% | 16% | 21% | 15% | 19% | 12% | 11% | 18% | 20% | 21% | 16% | 13% | 19% |
| No Confidence | 9% | 9% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 16% | 18% | 14% | 6% | 7% | 17% | 5% | 5% | 18% | 9% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 13% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 9% | 16% | 2% | 12% | 7% | 13% | 8% | 12% | 11% | 5% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 6% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 9% | 6% |
| Not Sure | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 21% | 24% | 30% | 25% | 45% | 55% | 68% | 18% | 8% | 5% | 39% | 36% | 22% | 35% | 35% | 28% | 18% | 24% | 33% | 15% | 8% | 42% | 33% | 23% | 28% | 72% | 45% | 44% | 44% | 54% | 31% | 68% | 31% | 30% | 39% | 38% | 36% | 26% | 75% | 25% | 17% | 45% | 38% | 37% | 16% | 29% | 18% |
| 4 | And thinking ahead to the 2024 election for President ... If Donald Trump runs again in 2024, and if Joe Biden runs for re-election in 2024, who would you vote for? |
| 918 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Registration | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely November | 2020 Vote | Gun Owning HH | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Likely | Certain | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | |
| Donald Trump (R) | 43% | 45% | 42% | 38% | 48% | 44% | 44% | 43% | 44% | 54% | 9% | 38% | 57% | 82% | 7% | 40% | 86% | 6% | 38% | 83% | 67% | 32% | 11% | 4% | 74% | 32% | 9% | 44% | 47% | 91% | 3% | 55% | 34% | 54% | 39% | 45% | 47% | 39% | 43% | 44% | 43% | 45% | 39% | 33% | 39% | 53% | 51% | 45% | 36% | 40% |
| Joe Biden (D) | 45% | 45% | 45% | 49% | 41% | 42% | 47% | 45% | 44% | 35% | 77% | 48% | 26% | 9% | 85% | 38% | 7% | 88% | 41% | 13% | 24% | 52% | 83% | 85% | 19% | 52% | 84% | 44% | 46% | 2% | 91% | 36% | 53% | 34% | 50% | 43% | 41% | 49% | 44% | 43% | 48% | 43% | 49% | 56% | 50% | 33% | 36% | 46% | 54% | 46% |
| Undecided | 12% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 14% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 17% | 9% | 7% | 22% | 8% | 6% | 21% | 4% | 9% | 17% | 6% | 11% | 7% | 17% | 7% | 12% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 14% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 14% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 27% | 24% | 26% | 22% | 51% | 49% | 65% | 21% | 9% | 5% | 36% | 36% | 22% | 34% | 34% | 29% | 16% | 23% | 36% | 14% | 7% | 39% | 36% | 21% | 20% | 53% | 41% | 43% | 43% | 54% | 32% | 66% | 35% | 30% | 34% | 39% | 38% | 24% | 69% | 31% | 17% | 45% | 38% | 35% | 17% | 30% | 18% |