Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12801
 
Until Something Unexpected Happens, CA GOP & Democratic Primaries are Not Competitive:
 
GOP: Thompson Settles Back to Pre-Launch Levels, Leaving Giuliani 21 Points Ahead of Rest of Republican Field: In a Republican Primary in California today, 10/15/07, 16 weeks to the vote, Rudolph Giuliani wins convincingly, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Fransisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno. Giuliani leads by 21 points today, his largest lead in 6 months of SurveyUSA tracking polls. Compared to an identical poll released 5 weeks ago, on 09/10/07, Fred Thompson is down 8 points, from 26% then to 18% today. Giuliani is up 11 points, from 28% then to 39% today. Thompson and Giuliani had been effectively tied in the September poll, conducted immediately following Thompson's launch on Jay Leno. Now Giuliani leads by 21. Thompson is just ahead of Mitt Romney, at 14%, and John McCain, at 13%. Another 12% of Republican primary voters prefer one of the other candidates -- Duncan Hunter, Mike Huckabee, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, or Ron Paul. Among Conservatives, Thompson finished 1st last month, 9 points atop Giuliani. Today, Thompson trails by 19 points among Conservatives, a swing of 28 points in Giuliani's favor. Giuliani today gets the vote of 39% of Pro-Life Republicans, his highest standing in 6 months, and a net 23-point improvement from a month ago, when Giuliani trailed Thompson by 2 among Pro-Lifers. Thompson's "Law and Order" legacy appears to be worth a couple of points at this point. Among those Republican primary voters who watch the TV show Law and Order, Thompson's support is 19%. Among those who "almost never" watch Law and Order, Thompson's support is 16%.
 
Democrats: Males Jump Aboard Clinton Express As It Highballs Through the Golden State: In a Democratic Primary in California today, 10/15/07, 16 weeks to the vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton wins in a rout, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Fransisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno. Clinton gets 57% of the vote today, in an 8-person field, and leads Barack Obama by 37 points. Obama's 20% showing is his worst in 6 months of SurveyUSA tracking. John Edwards runs 3rd, at 13%; Edwards' support is steady. Of great significance is Clinton's performance among male voters: In May and June, Obama led among men. In July, August and September, Clinton led among men -- but just barely. Today, Clinton is 17 points ahead of Obama among male voters. Among female voters, Clinton had been running among women consistently 35 to 40 points ahead of Obama, but today, she has stretched that commanding lead even further, to 52 points. Clinton is now 4:1 ahead of Obama and 7:1 ahead of Edwards among women. Among Liberal voters, Clinton is above 50% for the 2nd month, now 34 points ahead of Obama. This polling is not intended to forecast what will happen on 02/05/08. However, what this polling can do, is illustrate, should any other Democrat win California on 02/05/08, just how far from behind the winner came.
 
Filtering: 2,100 California adults were interviewed 10/12/07 through 10/14/07. Of them, 1,755 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of them, 519 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the Republican Primary, 782 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the Democratic Primary, and were included in this survey.
 
If the Republican Primary were today, would you vote for... Rudy Giuliani? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Fred Thompson? Or some other Republican?
519 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderRaceParty AffiliationIdeology2004 VoteAbortionGlobal WarmingStem Cell ResearLabor UnionSame Sex MarriagGun OwnershipMilitary DraftWho Is Winning WBush in HistoryPassport CurrentWatch Law And OrderRegionAge<50 / 50+Generation
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemaleWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalBushKerryPro-lifePro-choiRealMade-upForAgainstYesNoSupportOpposeYesNoNeedNo NeedUnited STerrorisOne Of AAn AveraOne Of TYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NCentral Greater Inland EBay Area18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Gen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Giuliani39%39%38%41%**37%29%40%**22%40%39%42%39%42%39%41%39%41%40%40%35%41%36%41%39%40%42%38%39%41%40%41%34%42%34%41%40%38%37%37%44%38%35%38%41%39%37%40%29%39%41%40%38%
McCain13%11%16%13%**13%14%13%**15%10%17%15%13%6%9%16%17%5%15%7%10%13%15%11%12%13%11%13%13%12%10%14%12%12%13%14%13%12%10%13%16%10%8%14%13%14%12%13%17%9%13%14%14%
Romney14%12%18%13%**15%11%14%**18%17%10%6%14%10%17%9%10%20%10%20%18%12%5%16%16%11%14%14%15%9%22%14%2%12%16%12%8%18%18%13%14%9%16%11%13%17%13%14%12%14%11%15%17%
Fred Thompson18%19%15%18%**14%20%17%**20%21%15%8%19%14%18%17%15%23%18%17%20%17%13%19%21%15%22%16%20%10%19%20%10%16%20%19%19%16%21%17%15%19%11%19%19%19%16%19%9%16%19%20%18%
Other12%14%8%11%**15%14%10%**22%10%12%21%11%21%15%8%12%9%11%13%13%11%22%9%9%13%9%12%10%15%7%7%28%11%14%13%10%12%8%13%9%16%24%11%9%6%16%8%29%15%10%9%6%
Undecided6%5%6%4%**6%13%5%**2%3%6%8%4%7%2%8%8%1%6%3%4%6%9%4%3%7%3%6%2%12%1%4%13%7%3%2%10%4%6%7%2%7%6%6%5%6%6%5%4%7%6%3%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%64%36%69%2%17%12%87%3%9%58%31%7%86%6%51%47%57%38%65%30%26%73%21%74%42%56%28%69%72%22%23%56%20%54%45%25%25%51%24%37%22%17%19%32%29%21%51%49%8%24%30%20%18%
 
If the Democratic Primary were today, would you vote for... Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? John Edwards? Or some other Democrat?
782 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderRaceParty AffiliationIdeology2004 VoteAbortionGlobal WarmingStem Cell ResearLabor UnionSame Sex MarriagGun OwnershipMilitary DraftWho Is Winning WBush in HistoryPassport CurrentWatch Law And OrderRegionAge<50 / 50+Generation
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemaleWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalBushKerryPro-lifePro-choiRealMade-upForAgainstYesNoSupportOpposeYesNoNeedNo NeedUnited STerrorisOne Of AAn AveraOne Of TYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NCentral Greater Inland EBay Area18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Gen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Clinton57%43%68%52%40%66%69%**59%49%49%60%54%36%60%56%58%58%**57%60%56%58%59%53%44%62%53%58%54%59%**47%60%58%56%61%64%51%53%60%56%57%54%58%56%64%56%59%53%56%60%54%64%
Obama20%26%16%18%55%13%17%**19%31%26%19%20%23%18%17%20%19%**20%15%20%19%20%20%23%19%16%21%19%20%**25%20%22%17%20%20%20%21%20%20%19%26%20%18%13%23%16%30%23%17%19%13%
Edwards13%20%9%18%4%10%9%**14%9%9%12%18%26%13%18%13%14%**14%15%14%14%14%16%22%11%21%12%17%14%**16%13%13%14%13%10%16%18%11%15%14%9%14%18%12%12%16%11%10%16%19%13%
Other6%9%4%7%0%6%4%**5%9%8%6%6%11%5%6%6%5%**6%7%5%6%4%8%6%6%8%5%6%6%**9%5%5%8%4%3%9%4%6%5%6%5%4%5%9%5%7%0%7%3%7%9%
Undecided4%3%4%4%0%5%2%**3%2%8%3%3%5%3%3%3%4%**3%3%5%3%3%3%5%3%2%4%4%2%**4%3%3%4%2%4%4%4%3%3%5%6%4%2%2%5%2%6%4%4%2%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%42%58%48%10%28%14%3%89%7%8%50%36%11%72%18%80%93%4%83%13%33%66%58%34%24%74%22%75%25%56%2%15%82%57%41%29%25%46%17%42%13%29%26%31%25%18%57%43%12%31%22%19%16%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.