| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16988 |
| In Fight for Open US House Seat in WA-03, Republican Jumps from Primary Positioned for Possible Take-Away: In an election today 08/25/10 for the open US House of Representatives seat in Washington State's 3rd Congressional District, Republican Jaime Herrera is 4:3 atop Democrat Denny Heck, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle.
Herrera has a broad constituency, and has an early advantage among both men and women, young and old. Moderates break 5:4 Democrat, but Independents break 5:3 Republican. When the sub-populations are combined, it's Herrera 54%, Heck 41%. Herrera, a member of the State House of Representatives, gets 9 of 10 Republican votes; Heck, a former State House Majority Leader, holds 8 of 10 Democrats. Since 1960, the 3rd District has been held by a Republican for only 2 terms, from 1995 to 1999. Incumbent Democrat Brian Baird, elected in 1998, is not seeking a 7th term. In a 6-person primary 08/17/10, Heck defeated Herrera 31% to 28%. In that primary, 54% of votes went to a Republican, 42% of votes went to a Democrat. |
| Filtering: 700 registered voters from Washington's 3rd Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 08/23/10 through 08/24/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 562 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. 38 of Washington's 39 counties vote solely by mail; ballots will be mailed to voters on 10/15/10. |
 | [Candidate names rotated] If you were filling out your ballot in the election for U.S. House of Representatives today, who would you vote for?Republican Jaime Herrera? Or Democrat Denny Heck? |
| 562 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | |
| Jaime Herrera (R) | 54% | 59% | 50% | 55% | 55% | 54% | 55% | 55% | 54% | 54% | ** | ** | 56% | 89% | 15% | 59% | 88% | 42% | 15% | 90% | 12% | 63% | 59% | 51% | 58% | 63% | 54% | 47% | 82% | 33% | 60% | 44% | 52% | 56% |
| Denny Heck (D) | 41% | 37% | 44% | 38% | 40% | 42% | 41% | 39% | 42% | 41% | ** | ** | 40% | 7% | 81% | 35% | 8% | 53% | 81% | 7% | 86% | 29% | 24% | 45% | 36% | 34% | 40% | 48% | 14% | 63% | 35% | 52% | 42% | 40% |
| Undecided | 5% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 5% | ** | ** | 4% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 12% | 25% | 39% | 23% | 38% | 62% | 88% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 32% | 32% | 34% | 38% | 40% | 19% | 37% | 36% | 21% | 7% | 51% | 49% | 38% | 24% | 39% | 41% | 55% | 58% | 38% | 32% | 68% |