Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16988
In Fight for Open US House Seat in WA-03, Republican Jumps from Primary Positioned for Possible Take-Away: In an election today 08/25/10 for the open US House of Representatives seat in Washington State's 3rd Congressional District, Republican Jaime Herrera is 4:3 atop Democrat Denny Heck, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle.

Herrera has a broad constituency, and has an early advantage among both men and women, young and old. Moderates break 5:4 Democrat, but Independents break 5:3 Republican. When the sub-populations are combined, it's Herrera 54%, Heck 41%. Herrera, a member of the State House of Representatives, gets 9 of 10 Republican votes; Heck, a former State House Majority Leader, holds 8 of 10 Democrats. Since 1960, the 3rd District has been held by a Republican for only 2 terms, from 1995 to 1999. Incumbent Democrat Brian Baird, elected in 1998, is not seeking a 7th term. In a 6-person primary 08/17/10, Heck defeated Herrera 31% to 28%. In that primary, 54% of votes went to a Republican, 42% of votes went to a Democrat.

Filtering: 700 registered voters from Washington's 3rd Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 08/23/10 through 08/24/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 562 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. 38 of Washington's 39 counties vote solely by mail; ballots will be mailed to voters on 10/15/10.
[Candidate names rotated]
If you were filling out your ballot in the election for U.S. House of Representatives today, who would you vote for?Republican Jaime Herrera? Or Democrat Denny Heck?
562 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Jaime Herrera (R)54%59%50%55%55%54%55%55%54%54%****56%89%15%59%88%42%15%90%12%63%59%51%58%63%54%47%82%33%60%44%52%56%
Denny Heck (D)41%37%44%38%40%42%41%39%42%41%****40%7%81%35%8%53%81%7%86%29%24%45%36%34%40%48%14%63%35%52%42%40%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%12%25%39%23%38%62%88%2%4%6%32%32%34%38%40%19%37%36%21%7%51%49%38%24%39%41%55%58%38%32%68%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.