Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25971
 
With Early Voting About To Begin in Rochester Democratic Primary For Mayor, Malik Evans Leads Incumbent Lovely Warren By Double Digits:
Handling of Daniel Prude Case, Campaign Finance Investigation, Arrest of Husband All Weighing Down Warren's Quest for Third Term in Office:


Three days before early voting begins in the Democratic Primary for Mayor of Rochester and 13 days before votes are counted, City Council Member Malik Evans leads incumbent Mayor Lovely Warren, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHEC-TV.

Today, Evans takes 48% of the vote; Warren takes 35%. 17% of likely voters are undecided.

Among those who say they are 100% certain to vote, Evans leads by a smaller margin of 6 percentage points; among those who say they are likely to vote, Evans leads by 27.

Warren draws significant support from African American voters, where she leads by 35 points. Evans leads by 72 points among white voters. Hispanics and Asians break 5:3 for Evans.

Warren, who has a Net Favorability of Minus 11, leads by 24 points among those who strongly support a universal basic income for Black and Brown residents, by 18 points among both conservative Democrats and those with high school educations, by 11 points among those who say racial justice is the most important issue facing Rochester, and by 10 points among those who are mostly optimistic about the future of the city.

Evans, who has a Net Favorability of Plus 22, leads by 43 points among those with 4-year college degrees and by 41 points in upper-income households. Evans leads by 68 points among those who are pessimistic about Rochester's future, by 37 points among liberal Democrats, and by 48 points among those who say poverty is the city's biggest issue. A plurality of voters say crime is the city's biggest issue, and among that 40% of the electorate, Evans leads Warren by a 12-point margin.

Warren, who has been criticized for her handling of the Daniel Prude case, trails Evans by 48 points among those who say the city's handling of that case will be "a major factor" in how they vote in the mayoral primary. Warren trails Evans by 4 points among those who say the city's handling of the case is a minor factor in their vote. Among those who say the Prude case will have no impact on their vote, Warren leads Evans by 9 points.

Those who say the investigation into Lovely Warren's campaign finances will be a major factor in their vote back Evans by 48 points; those calling the investigation a minor factor prefer Evans by 17 points. Those who say the investigation will not be a factor in their vote support Warren by a 53-point margin, 67% to 14%.

The arrest of Warren's husband, Timothy Granison, on drugs and weapons charges, is a major factor in their vote for 30% of Rochester Democrats; those voters back Evans by a 70-point margin, 76% to 6%. 31% say the arrest is a minor factor; those voters narrowly back Evans. The plurality, 34%, say Granison's arrest will not be a factor in their vote, and those voters back Warren by nearly 2:1.

47% of Evans voters say Granison's arrest is a major factor in their vote, 29% a minor factor; 22% say it's not a factor at all. For Warren's voters, however, the opposite is true: only 5% of those voting for Warren say the arrest is a major factor in how they will vote; 36% say it's a minor factor -- and the majority, 58%, say it's not a factor at all. Similarly, 43% of Warren voters say the campaign finance investigation isn't a factor, while 54% of Evans' voters say it's a major factor.

Full results follow.

About / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 adults from the city of Rochester, NY 06/01/21 through 06/08/21. Of the adults, 571 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 82% were Democrats; of the Democrats, 88% were identified as being likely to vote in the June 22 Democratic Primary for Mayor and were asked the questions reported here. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Voters reachable on a home telephone (44% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents unreachable on a landline telephone (56% of likely voters) were shown the survey questions on the display of their smartphone, laptop or tablet, using online panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans; or were interviewed by live operators, who hand-dialed cell-phone numbers, secured the cooperation of the respondent, ensured the safety of the respondent, asked the questions, made note of the answers, and remained on the line until the conclusion of the interview. Sample for the telephone portions of the survey was purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC, of known registered Democrats in the city of Rochester. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, and home ownership.
 
1If the Democratic primary for Rochester Mayor were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (Candidate names rotated) Lovely Warren? or Malik Evans?
412 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely To VoteMayor VoteFutureMost Important IssuePrude Case HandlingFinance InvestigationGranison ArrestUniversal IncomeEducationIncomeHomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 7.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberal50 / 50Likely T100% CerWarrenEvansOptimistNeutralPessimisCrimeEconomyRacial JPublic SPovertyLeadershMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaStronglySomewhatSomewhatStronglyHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentCell PhoLandline
Lovely Warren35%32%38%29%38%39%33%33%37%9%57%34%31%51%45%33%24%28%48%33%25%28%28%40%100%0%46%38%10%31%39%51%40%23%27%26%41%46%18%39%67%6%41%59%57%23%15%5%47%37%23%37%36%25%30%38%31%40%
Malik Evans48%51%46%43%44%55%53%43%54%77%22%52%55%19%41%49%67%54%30%49%62%45%55%46%0%100%36%52%78%43%53%40%47%71%66%60%45%37%66%56%14%76%46%31%33%54%49%93%29%46%66%47%42%66%61%40%46%51%
Undecided17%17%16%28%18%6%13%24%9%14%21%14%13%30%14%18%9%18%22%18%13%27%16%14%0%0%18%10%12%26%8%9%13%6%6%14%14%16%16%5%19%18%13%10%11%23%36%2%24%16%11%16%21%9%8%23%23%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%54%46%30%24%28%18%53%47%35%42%16%7%10%10%25%25%20%19%25%45%16%27%57%35%48%43%30%19%40%11%20%9%9%5%40%28%27%39%32%22%30%31%34%41%23%10%12%28%36%36%45%38%17%42%58%56%44%
 
2Is your opinion of Lovely Warren favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or are you unfamiliar with Warren?
412 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely To VoteMayor VoteFutureMost Important IssuePrude Case HandlingFinance InvestigationGranison ArrestUniversal IncomeEducationIncomeHomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 7.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberal50 / 50Likely T100% CerWarrenEvansOptimistNeutralPessimisCrimeEconomyRacial JPublic SPovertyLeadershMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaStronglySomewhatSomewhatStronglyHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentCell PhoLandline
Favorable31%27%35%28%34%31%31%31%31%10%55%17%20%40%42%28%21%27%41%28%23%20%28%35%77%4%42%29%15%23%39%50%38%21%23%22%36%43%15%32%64%8%30%55%53%18%11%5%36%35%22%32%34%20%31%30%29%33%
Unfavorable42%44%39%38%37%48%45%38%47%73%16%40%52%8%27%41%59%56%17%41%58%34%42%44%6%79%32%44%70%40%35%42%34%57%57%58%37%29%69%38%9%75%38%21%31%37%47%90%22%37%63%37%39%63%53%35%40%44%
Neutral22%24%20%25%24%19%21%25%19%14%24%39%18%52%26%29%17%8%39%29%13%42%26%15%16%15%21%26%8%31%25%7%20%22%20%18%22%18%14%28%22%14%28%21%12%45%32%3%36%20%13%24%23%16%14%28%25%19%
Unfamiliar1%1%2%2%2%1%0%2%0%2%1%0%0%0%0%1%2%0%0%1%1%5%2%0%0%1%0%0%5%1%0%0%7%0%0%1%3%0%2%0%0%3%1%1%1%0%6%2%3%2%0%1%2%0%0%2%2%1%
Not Sure4%3%4%6%2%2%3%5%2%1%4%4%11%0%5%0%1%8%2%0%4%0%1%5%1%1%5%1%1%5%1%2%2%0%0%1%2%10%0%2%5%0%3%2%4%0%4%0%3%6%2%6%2%2%3%4%4%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%54%46%30%24%28%18%53%47%35%42%16%7%10%10%25%25%20%19%25%45%16%27%57%35%48%43%30%19%40%11%20%9%9%5%40%28%27%39%32%22%30%31%34%41%23%10%12%28%36%36%45%38%17%42%58%56%44%
 
3Is your opinion of Malik Evans favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or are you unfamiliar with Evans?
412 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely To VoteMayor VoteFutureMost Important IssuePrude Case HandlingFinance InvestigationGranison ArrestUniversal IncomeEducationIncomeHomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 7.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberal50 / 50Likely T100% CerWarrenEvansOptimistNeutralPessimisCrimeEconomyRacial JPublic SPovertyLeadershMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaStronglySomewhatSomewhatStronglyHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentCell PhoLandline
Favorable32%27%38%27%34%30%42%30%35%48%19%29%39%18%29%39%38%37%23%39%37%12%33%37%11%57%35%29%40%30%42%26%31%42%49%40%34%24%44%38%11%54%29%21%24%40%44%47%17%28%49%27%30%52%45%23%34%30%
Unfavorable10%11%10%5%18%9%11%11%9%4%21%0%3%1%31%13%7%4%16%13%6%9%8%12%26%0%13%11%3%12%1%19%9%9%0%8%9%18%5%8%25%2%9%20%20%2%3%3%11%7%13%9%9%16%10%11%11%10%
Neutral37%42%31%48%32%31%33%41%32%32%37%50%23%78%22%37%40%24%50%37%33%53%46%28%35%34%33%41%36%42%41%21%39%37%19%38%35%33%38%37%33%27%48%32%31%52%26%43%41%39%30%38%37%30%27%44%35%39%
Unfamiliar18%18%18%18%11%28%13%15%22%15%19%21%21%4%13%7%14%35%8%7%23%24%13%19%26%9%17%18%20%15%6%33%22%9%32%14%22%22%13%15%26%18%13%21%24%7%15%7%26%23%7%23%20%2%17%19%16%21%
Not Sure3%2%3%2%5%2%1%3%2%0%4%0%13%0%5%4%2%0%3%4%1%2%0%4%2%0%2%1%0%2%9%1%0%3%0%1%1%4%0%1%5%0%1%5%1%0%11%0%5%2%1%2%4%0%2%3%3%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%54%46%30%24%28%18%53%47%35%42%16%7%10%10%25%25%20%19%25%45%16%27%57%35%48%43%30%19%40%11%20%9%9%5%40%28%27%39%32%22%30%31%34%41%23%10%12%28%36%36%45%38%17%42%58%56%44%
 
4When you think about the future of Rochester, do you feel mostly optimistic? Neutral? Or mostly pessimistic?
412 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely To VoteMayor VoteFutureMost Important IssuePrude Case HandlingFinance InvestigationGranison ArrestUniversal IncomeEducationIncomeHomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 7.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberal50 / 50Likely T100% CerWarrenEvansOptimistNeutralPessimisCrimeEconomyRacial JPublic SPovertyLeadershMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaStronglySomewhatSomewhatStronglyHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentCell PhoLandline
Mostly Optimistic43%48%38%48%45%38%42%47%40%35%50%52%24%52%38%40%37%58%45%40%46%40%35%49%57%33%100%0%0%38%48%56%46%47%17%47%45%43%37%50%48%33%48%49%59%49%18%26%44%41%45%36%48%53%46%41%46%40%
Neutral30%28%33%25%27%32%38%26%35%28%31%32%27%37%39%29%30%25%38%29%28%26%37%28%32%32%0%100%0%31%42%24%33%32%30%33%29%29%25%37%31%27%32%33%29%31%36%23%31%23%37%35%29%19%29%31%28%32%
Mostly Pessimistic19%21%17%20%15%26%12%18%21%32%7%10%46%9%21%18%29%14%15%18%22%25%21%17%5%31%0%0%100%23%3%17%17%12%48%17%20%21%36%9%9%38%16%9%9%14%34%50%14%27%15%20%16%25%21%18%16%23%
Not Sure7%4%12%7%13%3%7%10%5%5%11%5%3%1%3%14%4%3%2%14%4%9%8%7%5%4%0%0%0%9%8%3%4%9%6%3%6%6%2%3%11%3%5%10%3%6%12%1%11%9%3%9%7%4%4%10%9%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%54%46%30%24%28%18%53%47%35%42%16%7%10%10%25%25%20%19%25%45%16%27%57%35%48%43%30%19%40%11%20%9%9%5%40%28%27%39%32%22%30%31%34%41%23%10%12%28%36%36%45%38%17%42%58%56%44%
 
5Which of the following is the single most important issue facing the City of Rochester today? Crime? The economy? Racial justice? Public schools? Poverty? Leadership? Or something else?
412 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely To VoteMayor VoteFutureMost Important IssuePrude Case HandlingFinance InvestigationGranison ArrestUniversal IncomeEducationIncomeHomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 7.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberal50 / 50Likely T100% CerWarrenEvansOptimistNeutralPessimisCrimeEconomyRacial JPublic SPovertyLeadershMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaStronglySomewhatSomewhatStronglyHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentCell PhoLandline
Crime40%40%41%41%50%34%37%45%35%36%41%53%25%65%58%43%30%31%61%43%31%64%32%38%36%36%35%41%48%100%0%0%0%0%0%34%35%53%45%29%41%53%33%29%34%43%52%55%40%52%28%41%46%24%33%45%44%36%
Economy11%15%7%20%11%4%8%16%6%10%15%8%3%7%9%21%7%11%8%21%9%7%17%10%13%12%12%16%1%0%100%0%0%0%0%10%10%12%9%14%10%7%9%18%12%17%9%7%10%9%14%11%14%8%7%15%13%9%
Racial Justice20%18%22%20%18%23%16%19%20%16%21%26%16%10%14%14%22%30%12%14%25%15%15%23%28%16%25%16%18%0%0%100%0%0%0%28%20%10%18%27%15%15%24%22%27%19%5%5%19%17%23%17%20%26%25%16%21%19%
Public Schools9%10%8%11%2%10%15%7%12%14%9%3%7%14%2%8%16%7%8%8%12%0%20%7%11%9%10%10%8%0%0%0%100%0%0%7%13%10%11%10%9%6%13%10%9%13%17%3%8%6%14%6%9%20%11%8%10%9%
Poverty9%7%11%6%9%13%8%7%11%14%8%0%15%1%6%8%15%11%4%8%13%10%7%10%6%13%10%10%5%0%0%0%0%100%0%12%8%5%9%10%8%10%8%10%7%6%11%16%6%7%13%11%7%9%10%8%6%12%
Leadership5%5%5%0%2%10%9%1%10%7%2%0%24%3%5%4%6%3%4%4%5%1%5%6%4%7%2%5%12%0%0%0%0%0%100%3%8%6%6%3%8%8%3%5%5%0%6%5%12%2%2%7%3%3%7%3%3%8%
Other4%5%3%2%8%3%3%5%3%3%2%7%10%0%3%1%3%7%1%1%5%2%3%5%1%6%5%1%6%0%0%0%0%0%0%5%1%4%3%4%4%0%9%2%4%2%0%8%1%4%5%4%1%8%5%3%4%4%
Not Sure2%0%4%0%1%3%4%0%3%0%3%3%0%0%2%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%1%2%2%0%1%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%4%0%0%2%4%0%1%3%2%1%0%0%3%2%1%3%0%1%1%2%0%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%54%46%30%24%28%18%53%47%35%42%16%7%10%10%25%25%20%19%25%45%16%27%57%35%48%43%30%19%40%11%20%9%9%5%40%28%27%39%32%22%30%31%34%41%23%10%12%28%36%36%45%38%17%42%58%56%44%
 
6Is the city's handling of the Daniel Prude case a major factor in how you will vote for mayor? A minor factor? Or not a factor at all?
412 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely To VoteMayor VoteFutureMost Important IssuePrude Case HandlingFinance InvestigationGranison ArrestUniversal IncomeEducationIncomeHomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 7.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberal50 / 50Likely T100% CerWarrenEvansOptimistNeutralPessimisCrimeEconomyRacial JPublic SPovertyLeadershMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaStronglySomewhatSomewhatStronglyHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentCell PhoLandline
Major Factor40%46%34%50%36%37%32%44%35%49%37%39%21%75%26%31%37%50%51%31%43%54%43%35%30%50%43%44%37%33%37%57%32%54%21%100%0%0%63%35%15%59%41%26%43%45%24%46%47%26%49%44%36%38%39%41%42%37%
Minor Factor28%19%39%23%17%38%35%20%37%29%23%34%41%20%16%30%40%23%18%30%33%25%32%27%33%26%29%27%29%24%24%29%40%26%46%0%100%0%21%43%26%20%41%26%25%31%46%17%19%33%31%23%34%29%31%26%27%30%
Not a Factor27%32%21%18%40%24%29%27%26%20%34%21%27%5%57%31%21%21%31%31%21%12%17%35%35%21%27%26%30%35%29%13%28%15%33%0%0%100%15%21%55%20%14%43%31%15%20%36%28%34%18%25%26%30%29%25%24%30%
Not Sure5%4%7%9%7%1%3%8%2%2%7%5%11%0%1%8%1%6%0%8%4%9%8%3%1%3%1%3%4%7%10%1%0%5%0%0%0%0%0%2%4%1%4%5%1%9%10%0%7%7%2%8%3%3%1%8%7%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%54%46%30%24%28%18%53%47%35%42%16%7%10%10%25%25%20%19%25%45%16%27%57%35%48%43%30%19%40%11%20%9%9%5%40%28%27%39%32%22%30%31%34%41%23%10%12%28%36%36%45%38%17%42%58%56%44%
 
7Is the investigation into Lovely Warren's campaign finances a major factor in how you will vote for mayor? A minor factor? Or not a factor at all?
412 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely To VoteMayor VoteFutureMost Important IssuePrude Case HandlingFinance InvestigationGranison ArrestUniversal IncomeEducationIncomeHomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 7.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberal50 / 50Likely T100% CerWarrenEvansOptimistNeutralPessimisCrimeEconomyRacial JPublic SPovertyLeadershMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaStronglySomewhatSomewhatStronglyHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentCell PhoLandline
Major Factor39%47%30%45%31%45%31%39%40%62%21%41%35%69%28%38%47%37%49%38%42%65%35%34%20%54%34%32%73%44%30%37%44%40%44%62%30%22%100%0%0%81%37%9%25%50%39%77%45%34%40%38%37%48%38%40%41%37%
Minor Factor32%26%40%28%38%29%39%32%33%30%31%43%27%9%39%32%37%38%24%32%37%13%45%32%36%38%38%40%15%24%42%45%34%37%21%28%49%25%0%100%0%15%49%36%37%36%36%19%20%36%39%28%37%36%42%26%34%30%
Not a Factor22%22%22%14%25%24%29%19%26%6%37%11%34%22%33%21%16%14%27%21%15%17%12%29%43%7%25%23%10%23%20%17%22%21%35%8%21%46%0%0%100%3%13%50%33%9%15%4%26%21%20%24%22%15%20%23%15%31%
Not Sure6%5%7%13%6%2%1%10%2%1%11%5%3%0%0%9%1%11%0%9%5%6%7%6%1%2%4%4%1%10%8%2%0%2%0%1%0%7%0%0%0%1%0%5%6%5%10%0%8%9%1%10%4%1%1%10%10%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%54%46%30%24%28%18%53%47%35%42%16%7%10%10%25%25%20%19%25%45%16%27%57%35%48%43%30%19%40%11%20%9%9%5%40%28%27%39%32%22%30%31%34%41%23%10%12%28%36%36%45%38%17%42%58%56%44%
 
8Is the arrest of Lovely Warren's husband, Timothy Granison, a major factor in how you will vote for mayor? A minor factor? Or not a factor at all?
412 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely To VoteMayor VoteFutureMost Important IssuePrude Case HandlingFinance InvestigationGranison ArrestUniversal IncomeEducationIncomeHomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 7.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberal50 / 50Likely T100% CerWarrenEvansOptimistNeutralPessimisCrimeEconomyRacial JPublic SPovertyLeadershMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaStronglySomewhatSomewhatStronglyHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentCell PhoLandline
Major Factor30%28%33%27%32%35%25%29%31%51%14%27%29%26%22%30%39%35%24%30%37%37%24%31%5%47%23%27%59%40%18%23%20%34%50%45%22%22%62%14%4%100%0%0%16%30%46%66%29%26%35%23%38%34%36%26%31%29%
Minor Factor31%34%27%38%26%24%36%33%29%34%19%59%20%47%17%25%34%39%32%25%36%43%33%26%36%29%34%33%25%25%25%37%43%28%17%32%45%17%29%47%19%0%100%0%30%40%35%26%27%33%31%31%27%39%32%30%34%26%
Not a Factor34%35%34%22%41%39%39%30%39%14%59%8%46%27%56%40%26%16%41%40%22%16%36%38%58%22%38%37%15%25%55%39%36%38%34%22%32%55%8%38%77%0%0%100%49%24%17%7%40%31%33%37%34%26%30%37%27%44%
Not Sure5%3%7%13%1%2%0%8%1%1%8%5%5%0%5%5%1%9%3%5%5%5%6%4%1%1%5%4%0%10%1%0%0%0%0%1%2%6%1%2%0%0%0%0%5%5%2%0%3%10%1%9%1%1%2%7%8%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%54%46%30%24%28%18%53%47%35%42%16%7%10%10%25%25%20%19%25%45%16%27%57%35%48%43%30%19%40%11%20%9%9%5%40%28%27%39%32%22%30%31%34%41%23%10%12%28%36%36%45%38%17%42%58%56%44%
 
9Do you support or oppose a plan to provide a universal basic income for Black and Brown residents as a form of reparations for systemic discrimination?
412 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely To VoteMayor VoteFutureMost Important IssuePrude Case HandlingFinance InvestigationGranison ArrestUniversal IncomeEducationIncomeHomeCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 7.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberal50 / 50Likely T100% CerWarrenEvansOptimistNeutralPessimisCrimeEconomyRacial JPublic SPovertyLeadershMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaMajor FaMinor FaNot a FaStronglySomewhatSomewhatStronglyHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentCell PhoLandline
Strongly Support41%42%40%49%40%41%28%45%36%20%59%36%43%37%53%37%31%58%45%37%43%26%38%47%66%28%56%39%19%35%44%56%40%33%42%44%37%47%26%47%60%21%40%58%100%0%0%0%45%42%37%44%42%33%36%45%47%33%
Somewhat Support23%26%20%25%26%19%24%25%21%27%21%27%11%48%15%26%28%13%32%26%21%41%29%15%16%26%26%24%17%25%34%23%32%14%2%26%26%13%30%26%10%23%30%17%0%100%0%0%24%21%25%21%21%34%21%25%26%20%
Somewhat Oppose10%10%11%14%13%5%10%13%7%15%6%11%7%10%3%15%16%7%6%15%12%10%14%9%5%10%4%12%18%13%8%2%19%13%13%6%17%8%10%11%7%16%12%5%0%0%100%0%7%9%15%4%19%10%10%11%13%7%
Strongly Oppose12%15%8%7%10%19%12%8%17%26%2%9%9%5%20%15%15%9%13%15%12%9%7%15%2%23%7%9%31%16%8%3%4%21%12%14%7%16%24%7%2%26%10%3%0%0%0%100%3%14%17%12%10%18%18%8%7%18%
Not Sure14%7%21%5%13%16%25%8%20%11%12%16%30%0%9%6%10%13%4%6%12%15%11%14%12%13%7%15%14%11%6%16%5%19%31%10%13%16%11%9%21%14%8%17%0%0%0%0%21%14%7%19%9%6%16%11%7%22%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%54%46%30%24%28%18%53%47%35%42%16%7%10%10%25%25%20%19%25%45%16%27%57%35%48%43%30%19%40%11%20%9%9%5%40%28%27%39%32%22%30%31%34%41%23%10%12%28%36%36%45%38%17%42%58%56%44%