Results of SurveyUSA Mkt Research Study #27058
 
Trump Endorsement Gives Bernie Moreno a Lift in Ohio Republican Senate Primary, With Any Outcome Possible Two Weeks Before Polls Open:

Three months ago, SurveyUSA showed Ohio's incumbent Secretary of State, Frank LaRose, leading his opponents in the Buckeye State's Republican Primary for United States Senate by margins of 2:1 or greater. Days later, former President Trump endorsed businessman Bernie Moreno in that race, and today, two weeks until votes are counted, SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling on behalf of the Center for Election Science shows Moreno finishing first with 29% of the vote, just ahead of State Senator Matt Dolan, at 27%. LaRose falls to third place, taking 21% of the vote today, with 23% of likely voters remaining undecided, suggesting any outcome remains possible.

Moreno, who in December trailed LaRose among every demographic group, today leads LaRose by 8 points overall and by 23 points among both voters age 50 to 64 and voters who say they always pay attention to government and politics; by 17 points among voters with high school educations, and by 15 points among voters who say they are strong Republicans and voters who say they are independents.

LaRose, the one-time favorite to face off against Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown this November, today hangs onto leads among voters age 18 to 34, where he leads both Dolan and Moreno by 15 points; among Republican-leaning independents, where he is 7 points atop Dolan and 12 atop Moreno; and in Southeastern Ohio, where he leads both men by 5.

Dolan, just two points behind Moreno, leads among women (where he is 3 points atop Moreno and 5 atop LaRose); 35 to 49-year-olds (1 point ahead of LaRose, 6 above Moreno); the oldest and typically most-reliable voters (3 points atop Moreno, 14 atop LaRose); among those with 4-year college degrees (beating LaRose by 10 here and Moreno by 12); among moderates (where he leads LaRose by 12 and Moreno by 13), and perhaps importantly, perhaps not, given recent trends among Republican voters: among those who say they have already voted, just 6% of the electorate, but a sliver where he leads convincingly, with 51% of early voters saying they cast their ballots for Dolan, 25% for LaRose, and 24% for Moreno.

When voters are offered the opportunity to choose as many of the candidates as they wish ...
  • 44% select Moreno, including highs of 52% among 50 to 64-year-olds, in greater Toledo, and among those following politics most closely, as well as 50% of those who say they get their news from cable outlets.
  • 44% select Dolan, including highs of 55% among those age 65+, 52% among those with 4-year college degrees, and 51% among both moderates and those who say they get their news from broadcast TV outlets.
  • 40% select LaRose, including highs of 57% among Republican-leaning independents and 52% among 18 to 34-year-olds and in the southeastern portion of the state.
Fully crosstabbed results follow.
 
About the Research / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,400 adults from the state of Ohio online 02/27/24 through 03/03/24, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans and pre-screened to exclude Democrats. Of the adults, 1,186 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 1,073 said they generally think of themselves as Republicans or independents; of the 1,073 Republicans and Independents, 863 were determined to be likely to vote in the March 19th primary election and were subjected to further screening; 668 were determined to be likely to vote specifically in the primary for United States Senate, and, finally, 568 were determined to be certain to vote in the Republican US Senate Primary, and were asked the substantive questions which follow. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census-derived targets for gender, age, and education.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of Ohio?
1400 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther Already CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes85%86%83%79%81%85%93%80%89%86%68%88%61%0%89%84%84%100%100%100%85%75%58%78%86%94%94%94%76%89%95%97%91%85%74%46%89%87%90%90%86%87%76%79%100%51%82%85%87%79%77%91%90%90%83%77%90%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%95%94%91%74%81%87%83%81%81%87%85%86%82%
No14%12%16%19%16%13%7%17%10%13%29%8%32%100%11%16%16%---13%22%38%19%11%6%6%5%21%10%5%2%8%14%22%51%10%10%10%9%12%12%18%21%0%44%18%12%11%19%20%8%9%10%15%20%9%----------4%5%8%23%17%11%15%17%17%12%12%13%16%
Not Sure2%2%1%2%3%2%0%2%1%2%3%4%7%0%0%0%0%---2%3%4%2%2%1%0%1%3%1%0%1%1%1%4%3%1%2%0%1%2%1%6%0%0%4%0%3%2%2%3%1%1%0%2%3%1%----------1%1%1%3%2%2%1%2%2%1%3%1%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%50%50%17%30%31%22%47%53%88%5%3%1%0%1%0%0%4%57%19%93%7%4%40%21%8%20%7%38%38%21%17%37%20%21%6%34%21%10%5%3%4%8%7%1%6%1%2%3%6%36%16%27%10%11%36%53%1%2%6%22%13%34%21%9%22%68%15%65%64%36%18%50%32%10%10%15%21%37%6%
 
2Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ... ?
1186 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther Already CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Strong Democrat1%1%2%5%0%1%0%2%0%1%9%0%10%0%0%30%0%---1%5%5%1%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%0%0%2%0%2%2%0%2%1%0%0%0%0%14%8%3%1%0%0%0%6%1%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%13%0%0%5%0%1%1%3%1%0%0%2%2%1%1%0%
Democrat2%2%3%7%3%0%0%4%0%2%9%3%0%0%0%0%0%---2%11%2%2%1%3%3%2%3%2%2%2%3%2%1%0%2%2%1%5%3%1%4%2%10%0%0%11%9%9%3%1%0%0%9%3%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%23%0%0%7%1%1%4%4%2%1%2%1%1%3%3%1%
Independent / Leans Democratic6%5%6%7%6%6%4%6%5%6%8%8%0%0%13%0%0%---5%18%17%4%7%5%7%6%7%6%5%3%8%3%6%2%5%9%5%6%0%8%6%9%0%6%0%13%23%31%9%0%0%0%25%9%0%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%64%0%0%28%0%6%6%8%6%4%3%4%5%6%8%0%
Independent22%21%23%33%23%19%18%27%18%21%39%32%34%0%22%32%65%10%16%29%22%30%25%19%27%26%19%26%27%20%19%15%18%26%27%59%18%21%23%20%14%20%36%32%11%33%39%17%28%19%44%14%7%8%22%44%9%0%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%100%0%40%13%19%29%30%21%19%19%20%19%19%26%21%
Independent / Leans Republican13%15%11%7%13%13%17%11%15%13%5%17%8%0%11%0%0%10%14%14%13%7%5%13%13%9%17%10%12%12%17%13%13%13%15%2%11%16%15%14%13%19%9%10%7%13%21%3%0%8%11%28%12%5%4%11%15%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%19%6%15%14%10%14%13%13%10%15%11%15%12%16%
Republican34%34%34%29%37%35%34%34%34%35%23%21%34%0%42%39%35%43%40%41%35%22%25%38%30%33%32%34%31%36%34%28%36%38%35%24%37%32%33%32%42%39%27%25%47%38%29%28%31%24%24%47%50%10%27%24%41%0%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%0%50%12%42%35%32%25%35%37%46%32%40%35%28%37%
Strong Republican21%22%20%13%17%26%26%16%26%23%7%19%7%0%12%0%0%36%30%16%22%7%20%23%20%22%21%20%20%23%23%39%20%16%14%11%26%19%22%22%28%12%17%21%26%10%11%11%2%5%7%9%31%76%5%7%33%0%0%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%31%1%29%23%17%16%21%25%21%26%21%21%21%23%
Other0%0%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%8%0%0%0%0%---0%0%0%0%1%0%0%2%1%0%1%0%0%0%1%2%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%0%0%3%0%1%1%0%0%0%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%51%49%16%29%31%24%45%55%89%4%4%1%0%1%0%0%4%57%19%94%6%3%37%21%9%22%8%34%39%24%20%39%20%18%3%36%22%10%6%3%4%7%6%1%4%1%2%4%5%33%17%28%11%11%33%56%1%2%6%22%13%34%21%9%22%68%16%72%69%31%17%51%31%10%10%15%21%38%6%
 
3Ohio will hold primary elections for President and the United States Senate on March 19. Not everyone has the time to vote in every election. Which best describes you? Are you certain to vote? Will you probably vote? Are the chances you will vote about 50/50? Or will you probably not vote?
1073 Republicans And IndependentsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther Already CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Already Voted4%6%3%5%3%4%6%4%5%5%2%4%0%0%0%0%12%100%0%0%5%2%14%4%3%6%4%5%4%5%3%9%4%2%3%0%4%6%6%7%5%4%3%3%0%0%7%21%7%5%4%3%4%7%8%4%4%0%0%0%2%3%5%7%0%2%5%8%4%4%5%5%4%5%1%2%5%6%4%8%
Certain To Vote57%60%53%45%51%61%65%49%63%57%40%71%53%0%51%55%35%0%100%0%57%58%35%52%60%51%62%70%48%58%65%74%69%43%34%16%65%57%50%52%59%56%42%42%89%38%47%40%53%47%45%54%68%68%48%45%64%0%0%0%37%55%60%73%0%37%63%50%63%62%44%58%57%56%58%69%55%54%55%59%
Probably Vote19%18%21%22%24%19%13%23%16%19%18%13%39%0%32%45%17%0%0%100%19%19%21%21%20%21%17%14%22%18%17%9%17%30%23%18%18%18%27%19%20%13%19%27%11%16%28%8%21%25%21%25%15%15%21%21%18%0%0%0%23%18%21%13%0%23%18%16%18%17%23%17%20%19%18%19%22%20%19%15%
50/50 Chance10%7%13%15%13%9%4%14%7%9%24%7%8%0%18%0%21%0%0%0%10%14%16%13%9%11%7%5%14%9%6%3%6%16%17%17%7%11%5%16%6%13%21%12%0%13%18%27%9%15%15%10%6%4%15%15%7%0%0%0%18%11%8%5%0%18%7%10%8%8%14%11%9%10%13%5%8%11%11%9%
Probably Will Not8%8%9%12%7%5%12%9%8%9%14%0%0%0%0%0%16%0%0%0%9%4%15%9%7%10%9%4%10%8%7%3%3%6%21%44%4%8%9%5%9%12%12%14%0%32%0%5%8%8%12%7%6%6%7%12%6%0%0%0%18%12%5%2%0%18%5%15%6%7%12%9%8%9%10%4%8%8%9%8%
Not Sure1%1%2%2%1%2%1%1%1%1%2%4%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%4%0%1%2%2%0%2%2%1%1%1%1%2%2%5%1%1%2%2%0%0%3%3%0%0%0%0%2%0%3%0%0%1%1%3%0%0%0%0%2%1%1%1%0%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%1%2%1%2%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents100%52%48%14%29%32%25%43%57%90%3%4%1%0%1%0%0%4%57%19%95%5%2%38%21%9%21%8%34%39%24%20%38%21%18%3%36%21%10%6%3%4%7%6%1%4%1%1%2%3%32%18%31%12%7%32%62%0%0%0%24%14%38%24%0%24%76%11%79%70%30%16%51%32%10%10%15%21%37%7%
 
4Which of the following primary races will you vote in?

President?
863 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 1.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther Already CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes97%97%97%97%97%98%96%97%98%97%97%96%100%0%93%100%81%87%99%95%98%93%95%98%97%97%98%97%97%97%97%99%96%97%98%100%97%98%100%95%97%93%100%96%89%100%100%92%96%93%96%97%98%100%94%96%98%0%0%0%95%97%98%98%0%95%98%95%98%97%97%99%97%97%99%99%96%98%97%93%
No3%3%3%3%3%2%4%3%2%3%3%4%0%0%7%0%19%13%1%5%2%7%5%2%3%3%2%3%3%3%3%1%4%3%2%0%3%2%0%5%3%7%0%4%11%0%0%8%4%7%4%3%2%0%6%4%2%0%0%0%5%3%2%2%0%5%2%5%2%3%3%1%3%3%1%1%4%2%3%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Primary100%54%46%13%28%33%26%41%59%91%3%4%1%0%1%0%0%6%71%24%96%4%2%36%22%9%22%9%31%40%25%24%42%19%14%1%39%21%11%5%3%4%5%5%2%3%1%1%2%3%27%19%34%14%6%27%66%0%0%0%19%14%40%27%0%19%81%10%84%73%27%16%52%32%10%11%16%21%35%7%
 
5Which of the following primary races will you vote in?

United States Senate?
863 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther Already CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes77%80%75%70%74%78%85%73%81%78%69%83%58%0%83%28%74%74%85%56%78%76%60%73%77%83%84%79%77%76%81%83%82%69%68%48%79%86%76%72%58%73%67%63%100%70%80%74%56%72%73%78%79%86%66%73%80%0%0%0%71%87%73%84%0%71%79%72%80%81%69%82%78%75%70%82%74%77%80%75%
No23%20%25%30%26%22%15%27%19%22%31%17%42%0%17%72%26%26%15%44%22%24%40%27%23%17%16%21%23%24%19%17%18%31%32%52%21%14%24%28%42%27%33%37%0%30%20%26%44%28%27%22%21%14%34%27%20%0%0%0%29%13%27%16%0%29%21%28%20%19%31%18%22%25%30%18%26%23%20%25%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Primary100%54%46%13%28%33%26%41%59%91%3%4%1%0%1%0%0%6%71%24%96%4%2%36%22%9%22%9%31%40%25%24%42%19%14%1%39%21%11%5%3%4%5%5%2%3%1%1%2%3%27%19%34%14%6%27%66%0%0%0%19%14%40%27%0%19%81%10%84%73%27%16%52%32%10%11%16%21%35%7%
 
6Which of the following primary races will you vote in?

United States House of Representatives?
863 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther Already CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes74%77%71%65%70%75%81%68%78%75%56%72%43%0%83%54%55%63%82%52%74%68%65%71%69%80%80%80%74%72%78%80%77%67%66%59%77%81%71%62%57%70%64%64%83%70%67%66%62%66%70%75%78%79%64%70%77%0%0%0%70%82%69%80%0%70%75%70%76%76%68%75%73%75%70%76%72%71%77%75%
No26%23%29%35%30%25%19%32%22%25%44%28%57%0%17%46%45%37%18%48%26%32%35%29%31%20%20%20%26%28%22%20%23%33%34%41%23%19%29%38%43%30%36%36%17%30%33%34%38%34%30%25%22%21%36%30%23%0%0%0%30%18%31%20%0%30%25%30%24%24%32%25%27%25%30%24%28%29%23%25%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Primary100%54%46%13%28%33%26%41%59%91%3%4%1%0%1%0%0%6%71%24%96%4%2%36%22%9%22%9%31%40%25%24%42%19%14%1%39%21%11%5%3%4%5%5%2%3%1%1%2%3%27%19%34%14%6%27%66%0%0%0%19%14%40%27%0%19%81%10%84%73%27%16%52%32%10%11%16%21%35%7%
 
7Which of the following primary races will you vote in?

None of the above?
863 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 0.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther Already CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes1%1%1%0%0%1%2%0%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%6%0%1%1%0%0%0%2%1%1%1%1%1%0%0%1%2%1%0%1%0%0%0%0%2%0%2%0%0%0%0%0%3%1%2%0%0%2%1%1%0%0%0%2%2%0%0%0%2%0%2%0%1%0%0%1%1%0%0%1%0%1%5%
No99%99%99%100%100%99%98%100%99%99%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%94%100%99%99%100%100%100%98%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%99%98%99%100%99%100%100%100%100%98%100%98%100%100%100%100%100%97%99%98%100%100%98%99%99%0%0%0%98%98%100%100%0%98%100%98%100%99%100%100%99%99%100%100%99%100%99%95%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Primary100%54%46%13%28%33%26%41%59%91%3%4%1%0%1%0%0%6%71%24%96%4%2%36%22%9%22%9%31%40%25%24%42%19%14%1%39%21%11%5%3%4%5%5%2%3%1%1%2%3%27%19%34%14%6%27%66%0%0%0%19%14%40%27%0%19%81%10%84%73%27%16%52%32%10%11%16%21%35%7%
 
8Are you certain you will vote in the Republican primary for United States Senate? Certain you will vote in the Democratic primary for United States Senate? Or are you not certain?
668 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Senate PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther Already CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Republican85%87%83%73%85%88%87%81%87%86%73%72%58%0%62%100%100%95%89%65%86%69%49%87%81%88%85%91%82%86%87%91%86%74%84%66%86%81%83%83%88%98%83%86%82%92%88%90%39%74%67%89%94%97%66%67%93%0%0%0%46%80%93%100%0%46%93%56%90%88%77%79%86%87%81%87%88%87%82%92%
Democratic3%3%3%7%2%2%4%3%3%3%18%0%25%0%0%0%0%5%3%4%3%9%8%1%4%4%4%1%2%4%3%3%3%4%3%0%2%5%5%0%5%0%3%0%6%0%0%0%20%18%5%2%1%0%16%5%1%0%0%0%11%4%1%0%0%11%1%16%2%2%5%6%2%2%2%4%4%2%4%0%
Not Certain12%10%14%20%14%11%9%15%10%11%9%28%17%0%38%0%0%0%9%31%11%22%43%12%14%8%11%8%16%10%10%6%11%22%12%34%12%13%12%17%7%2%14%14%12%8%12%10%41%7%27%10%5%3%18%27%6%0%0%0%44%16%5%0%0%44%5%28%8%10%19%15%12%11%17%9%7%12%15%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Senate Primary100%55%45%11%27%33%29%38%62%91%2%4%1%0%1%0%0%5%77%17%96%4%2%34%21%10%24%9%31%39%27%25%45%17%12%1%40%23%11%5%3%4%5%4%2%2%1%1%2%3%26%19%35%15%6%26%68%0%0%0%17%15%38%30%0%17%83%9%86%76%24%17%52%31%9%12%15%21%37%6%
 
9In the Republican primary election for United States Senate, which of these candidates would you choose?

[Candidate names shown to respondents in alphabetical order; ranked here for ease of comprehension. Half of voters were randomly assigned Q9 first; half were randomly assigned the following section, where they could select as many candidates as they wished, first.]
568 Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther Already CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Bernie Moreno29%33%23%20%20%37%31%20%34%29%27%28%43%0%41%0%25%24%30%25%29%26%33%36%28%28%21%26%31%30%26%39%24%27%28%0%33%29%20%30%7%25%38%14%25%43%18%52%19%15%19%29%34%31%24%19%32%0%0%0%27%23%29%32%0%27%29%11%30%30%25%26%28%32%22%33%26%28%33%21%
Matt Dolan27%27%26%20%27%23%34%25%28%27%14%26%26%0%15%0%25%51%26%21%27%36%51%22%26%28%33%29%23%27%31%32%28%23%16%17%24%35%29%19%30%39%21%17%18%18%48%0%14%25%32%25%25%28%17%32%26%0%0%0%29%28%24%30%0%29%27%44%26%28%21%31%31%17%28%24%27%32%26%21%
Frank LaRose21%22%21%35%26%14%20%29%17%21%44%26%0%0%0%100%0%25%21%21%21%15%0%19%24%22%23%22%20%22%22%16%25%23%15%30%23%20%21%29%23%7%14%28%39%4%33%20%67%32%20%26%19%20%36%20%21%0%0%0%12%35%22%17%0%12%22%27%21%21%21%20%21%23%26%22%21%15%23%26%
Undecided23%17%30%25%27%26%15%26%21%23%15%20%30%0%44%0%49%0%23%33%23%24%16%23%23%22%23%23%26%21%21%13%22%26%41%53%20%17%31%22%41%29%27%42%18%35%0%28%0%28%29%20%22%21%23%29%21%0%0%0%33%15%25%21%0%33%22%18%23%20%33%24%19%28%25%21%25%25%19%32%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republican Primary Voters100%56%44%10%26%34%30%36%64%92%2%4%0%0%1%0%0%6%81%13%97%3%1%35%20%10%24%10%30%39%27%27%45%15%12%1%41%22%10%5%3%4%5%4%2%3%1%1%1%3%21%19%39%17%4%21%75%0%0%0%9%14%42%35%0%9%91%6%91%78%22%16%53%32%9%12%15%22%35%7%
 
10In the Republican primary election for the United States Senate, if you could choose as many candidates as you liked, which of these candidates would you choose?

Matt Dolan?
568 Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther Already CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes44%43%46%32%42%41%55%40%47%45%35%52%26%0%46%0%25%43%46%36%44%51%51%37%45%44%52%49%46%42%47%49%44%41%40%17%45%51%41%34%41%43%26%47%50%38%67%28%14%46%51%39%45%42%36%51%43%0%0%0%45%50%38%50%0%45%44%45%45%45%44%44%50%35%50%49%43%42%46%31%
No56%57%54%68%58%59%45%60%53%55%65%48%74%0%54%100%75%57%54%64%56%49%49%63%55%56%48%51%54%58%53%51%56%59%60%83%55%49%59%66%59%57%74%53%50%62%33%72%86%54%49%61%55%58%64%49%57%0%0%0%55%50%62%50%0%55%56%55%55%55%56%56%50%65%50%51%57%58%54%69%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republican Primary Voters100%56%44%10%26%34%30%36%64%92%2%4%0%0%1%0%0%6%81%13%97%3%1%35%20%10%24%10%30%39%27%27%45%15%12%1%41%22%10%5%3%4%5%4%2%3%1%1%1%3%21%19%39%17%4%21%75%0%0%0%9%14%42%35%0%9%91%6%91%78%22%16%53%32%9%12%15%22%35%7%
 
11Frank LaRose?
568 Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther Already CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes40%39%41%52%44%36%37%46%37%40%36%48%74%0%44%0%0%36%40%44%40%40%35%35%41%42%43%47%39%39%43%33%44%45%34%30%40%35%49%51%60%16%29%56%73%10%45%40%46%32%44%41%36%45%37%44%39%0%0%0%30%57%37%39%0%30%41%34%40%40%41%39%40%41%39%43%42%33%41%52%
No60%61%59%48%56%64%63%54%63%60%64%52%26%0%56%100%100%64%60%56%60%60%65%65%59%58%57%53%61%61%57%67%56%55%66%70%60%65%51%49%40%84%71%44%27%90%55%60%54%68%56%59%64%55%63%56%61%0%0%0%70%43%63%61%0%70%59%66%60%60%59%61%60%59%61%57%58%67%59%48%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republican Primary Voters100%56%44%10%26%34%30%36%64%92%2%4%0%0%1%0%0%6%81%13%97%3%1%35%20%10%24%10%30%39%27%27%45%15%12%1%41%22%10%5%3%4%5%4%2%3%1%1%1%3%21%19%39%17%4%21%75%0%0%0%9%14%42%35%0%9%91%6%91%78%22%16%53%32%9%12%15%22%35%7%
 
12Bernie Moreno?
568 Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther Already CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes44%46%41%33%38%52%43%36%48%44%35%53%43%0%56%100%25%29%46%39%44%37%51%48%42%38%41%44%46%42%44%52%40%41%42%36%50%42%36%34%11%35%46%43%53%58%18%84%19%26%43%40%47%44%38%43%44%0%0%0%39%39%46%45%0%39%44%24%45%44%42%44%43%45%52%47%36%42%48%32%
No56%54%59%67%62%48%57%64%52%56%65%47%57%0%44%0%75%71%54%61%56%63%49%52%58%62%59%56%54%58%56%48%60%59%58%64%50%58%64%66%89%65%54%57%47%42%82%16%81%74%57%60%53%56%62%57%56%0%0%0%61%61%54%55%0%61%56%76%55%56%58%56%57%55%48%53%64%58%52%68%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republican Primary Voters100%56%44%10%26%34%30%36%64%92%2%4%0%0%1%0%0%6%81%13%97%3%1%35%20%10%24%10%30%39%27%27%45%15%12%1%41%22%10%5%3%4%5%4%2%3%1%1%1%3%21%19%39%17%4%21%75%0%0%0%9%14%42%35%0%9%91%6%91%78%22%16%53%32%9%12%15%22%35%7%
 
13None of the above?
568 Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther Already CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes11%10%12%11%12%10%9%12%10%11%15%4%0%0%17%0%49%9%10%14%11%10%0%14%9%8%9%9%12%11%7%7%10%11%20%17%8%10%12%13%25%17%23%7%7%20%0%16%21%28%10%11%11%7%24%10%10%0%0%0%14%6%14%8%0%14%10%22%10%10%14%11%8%15%5%11%12%15%7%17%
No89%90%88%89%88%90%91%88%90%89%85%96%100%0%83%100%51%91%90%86%89%90%100%86%91%92%91%91%88%89%93%93%90%89%80%83%92%90%88%87%75%83%77%93%93%80%100%84%79%72%90%89%89%93%76%90%90%0%0%0%86%94%86%92%0%86%90%78%90%90%86%89%92%85%95%89%88%85%93%83%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republican Primary Voters100%56%44%10%26%34%30%36%64%92%2%4%0%0%1%0%0%6%81%13%97%3%1%35%20%10%24%10%30%39%27%27%45%15%12%1%41%22%10%5%3%4%5%4%2%3%1%1%1%3%21%19%39%17%4%21%75%0%0%0%9%14%42%35%0%9%91%6%91%78%22%16%53%32%9%12%15%22%35%7%
 
 All Questions Crosstabbed By All Questions
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of Ohio?
1400 AdultsAllRegistered OHParty AffiliationLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherAlready Certain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertBernie MMatt DolFrank LaUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes85%---100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
No14%----------------------------------------
Not Sure2%----------------------------------------
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%1%2%6%22%13%34%21%0%4%57%19%10%8%1%97%3%77%23%74%26%1%99%85%3%12%29%27%21%23%44%56%40%60%44%56%11%89%
 
2Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ... ?
1186 Registered VotersAllRegistered OHParty AffiliationLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherAlready Certain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertBernie MMatt DolFrank LaUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Strong Democrat1%1%0%0%-------------------------------------
Democrat2%2%0%0%-------------------------------------
Independent / Leans Democratic6%6%0%0%-------------------------------------
Independent22%22%0%0%--------10%16%29%43%52%47%18%34%17%24%18%22%52%19%9%63%63%9%10%5%13%9%9%7%11%8%10%12%9%
Independent / Leans Republican13%13%0%0%--------10%14%14%16%21%9%14%13%15%8%15%9%34%13%14%21%20%11%15%23%9%16%13%20%10%13%15%9%15%
Republican34%34%0%0%--------43%40%41%30%22%32%41%30%38%49%38%48%0%41%42%16%17%42%36%43%46%36%46%39%44%44%40%54%40%
Strong Republican21%21%0%0%--------36%30%16%11%6%12%27%23%30%19%30%21%14%27%35%0%0%38%39%28%32%39%32%34%35%36%34%26%36%
Other0%0%0%0%-------------------------------------
Total100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%100%0%0%4%57%19%10%8%1%97%3%77%23%74%26%1%99%85%3%12%29%27%21%23%44%56%40%60%44%56%11%89%
 
3Ohio will hold primary elections for President and the United States Senate on March 19. Not everyone has the time to vote in every election. Which best describes you? Are you certain to vote? Will you probably vote? Are the chances you will vote about 50/50? Or will you probably not vote?
1073 Republicans And IndependentsAllRegistered OHParty AffiliationLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherAlready Certain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertBernie MMatt DolFrank LaUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Already Voted4%4%0%0%0%0%0%2%3%5%7%0%------5%27%5%6%5%8%42%5%6%9%0%5%11%7%0%6%6%5%6%4%8%5%6%
Certain To Vote57%57%0%0%0%0%0%37%55%60%73%0%------72%33%77%47%78%48%23%71%81%66%56%84%79%80%81%83%79%80%81%84%78%78%81%
Probably Vote19%19%0%0%0%0%0%23%18%21%13%0%------23%40%17%47%17%44%35%24%13%25%44%12%10%13%19%11%15%15%12%12%14%17%13%
50/50 Chance10%10%0%0%0%0%0%18%11%8%5%0%-----------------------------
Probably Will Not8%8%0%0%0%0%0%18%12%5%2%0%-----------------------------
Not Sure1%1%0%0%0%0%0%2%1%1%1%0%-----------------------------
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents100%100%0%0%0%0%0%24%14%38%24%0%97%3%77%23%74%26%1%99%85%3%12%29%27%21%23%44%56%40%60%44%56%11%89%
 
4Which of the following primary races will you vote in?

President?
863 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in PrimaryAllRegistered OHParty AffiliationLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 1.1 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherAlready Certain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertBernie MMatt DolFrank LaUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes97%97%0%0%0%0%0%95%97%98%98%0%87%99%95%0%0%0%--98%95%99%93%0%98%98%91%98%99%97%99%98%98%98%99%98%99%97%99%98%
No3%3%0%0%0%0%0%5%3%2%2%0%13%1%5%0%0%0%--2%5%1%7%100%2%2%9%2%1%3%1%2%2%2%1%2%1%3%1%2%
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Primary100%100%0%0%0%0%0%19%14%40%27%0%6%71%24%0%0%0%77%23%74%26%1%99%85%3%12%29%27%21%23%44%56%40%60%44%56%11%89%
 
5Which of the following primary races will you vote in?

United States Senate?
863 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in PrimaryAllRegistered OHParty AffiliationLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 2.9 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherAlready Certain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertBernie MMatt DolFrank LaUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes77%77%0%0%0%0%0%71%87%73%84%0%74%85%56%0%0%0%78%62%--97%20%0%78%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
No23%23%0%0%0%0%0%29%13%27%16%0%26%15%44%0%0%0%22%38%--3%80%100%22%---------------
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Primary100%100%0%0%0%0%0%19%14%40%27%0%6%71%24%0%0%0%97%3%74%26%1%99%85%3%12%29%27%21%23%44%56%40%60%44%56%11%89%
 
6Which of the following primary races will you vote in?

United States House of Representatives?
863 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in PrimaryAllRegistered OHParty AffiliationLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherAlready Certain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertBernie MMatt DolFrank LaUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes74%74%0%0%0%0%0%70%82%69%80%0%63%82%52%0%0%0%75%33%93%9%--0%75%93%85%93%95%90%92%96%92%95%93%94%95%92%94%93%
No26%26%0%0%0%0%0%30%18%31%20%0%37%18%48%0%0%0%25%67%7%91%--100%25%7%15%7%5%10%8%4%8%5%7%6%5%8%6%7%
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Primary100%100%0%0%0%0%0%19%14%40%27%0%6%71%24%0%0%0%97%3%77%23%1%99%85%3%12%29%27%21%23%44%56%40%60%44%56%11%89%
 
7Which of the following primary races will you vote in?

None of the above?
863 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in PrimaryAllRegistered OHParty AffiliationLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 0.6 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherAlready Certain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertBernie MMatt DolFrank LaUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes1%1%0%0%0%0%0%2%2%0%0%0%6%0%1%0%0%0%0%30%0%4%0%3%-----------------
No99%99%0%0%0%0%0%98%98%100%100%0%94%100%99%0%0%0%100%70%100%96%100%97%--100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Primary100%100%0%0%0%0%0%19%14%40%27%0%6%71%24%0%0%0%97%3%77%23%74%26%85%3%12%29%27%21%23%44%56%40%60%44%56%11%89%
 
8Are you certain you will vote in the Republican primary for United States Senate? Certain you will vote in the Democratic primary for United States Senate? Or are you not certain?
668 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Senate PrimaryAllRegistered OHParty AffiliationLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherAlready Certain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertBernie MMatt DolFrank LaUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Republican85%85%0%0%0%0%0%46%80%93%100%0%95%89%65%0%0%0%85%75%85%0%85%81%0%85%---100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Democratic3%3%0%0%0%0%0%11%4%1%0%0%5%3%4%0%0%0%3%12%3%0%3%6%0%3%---------------
Not Certain12%12%0%0%0%0%0%44%16%5%0%0%0%9%31%0%0%0%12%12%12%0%12%13%0%12%---------------
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Senate Primary100%100%0%0%0%0%0%17%15%38%30%0%5%77%17%0%0%0%98%2%100%0%93%7%0%100%29%27%21%23%44%56%40%60%44%56%11%89%
 
9In the Republican primary election for United States Senate, which of these candidates would you choose?

[Candidate names shown to respondents in alphabetical order; ranked here for ease of comprehension. Half of voters were randomly assigned Q9 first; half were randomly assigned the following section, where they could select as many candidates as they wished, first.]
568 Republican Primary VotersAllRegistered OHParty AffiliationLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherAlready Certain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertBernie MMatt DolFrank LaUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Bernie Moreno29%29%0%0%0%0%0%27%23%29%32%0%24%30%25%0%0%0%29%20%29%0%30%21%0%29%29%0%0%----14%41%12%40%65%1%1%32%
Matt Dolan27%27%0%0%0%0%0%29%28%24%30%0%51%26%21%0%0%0%26%47%27%0%26%40%0%27%27%0%0%----54%5%17%33%10%40%11%29%
Frank LaRose21%21%0%0%0%0%0%12%35%22%17%0%25%21%21%0%0%0%21%12%21%0%21%26%0%21%21%0%0%----16%26%50%2%10%30%3%23%
Undecided23%23%0%0%0%0%0%33%15%25%21%0%0%23%33%0%0%0%23%20%23%0%23%14%0%23%23%0%0%----16%28%21%24%15%29%85%15%
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republican Primary Voters100%100%0%0%0%0%0%9%14%42%35%0%6%81%13%0%0%0%98%2%100%0%93%7%0%100%100%0%0%44%56%40%60%44%56%11%89%
 
10In the Republican primary election for the United States Senate, if you could choose as many candidates as you liked, which of these candidates would you choose?

Matt Dolan?
568 Republican Primary VotersAllRegistered OHParty AffiliationLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherAlready Certain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertBernie MMatt DolFrank LaUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes44%44%0%0%0%0%0%45%50%38%50%0%43%46%36%0%0%0%44%53%44%0%44%55%0%44%44%0%0%21%90%32%32%--46%43%36%51%0%50%
No56%56%0%0%0%0%0%55%50%62%50%0%57%54%64%0%0%0%56%47%56%0%56%45%0%56%56%0%0%79%10%68%68%--54%57%64%49%100%50%
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republican Primary Voters100%100%0%0%0%0%0%9%14%42%35%0%6%81%13%0%0%0%98%2%100%0%93%7%0%100%100%0%0%29%27%21%23%40%60%44%56%11%89%
 
11Frank LaRose?
568 Republican Primary VotersAllRegistered OHParty AffiliationLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherAlready Certain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertBernie MMatt DolFrank LaUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes40%40%0%0%0%0%0%30%57%37%39%0%36%40%44%0%0%0%40%28%40%0%40%43%0%40%40%0%0%17%25%94%37%42%39%--33%46%0%45%
No60%60%0%0%0%0%0%70%43%63%61%0%64%60%56%0%0%0%60%72%60%0%60%57%0%60%60%0%0%83%75%6%63%58%61%--67%54%100%55%
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republican Primary Voters100%100%0%0%0%0%0%9%14%42%35%0%6%81%13%0%0%0%98%2%100%0%93%7%0%100%100%0%0%29%27%21%23%44%56%44%56%11%89%
 
12Bernie Moreno?
568 Republican Primary VotersAllRegistered OHParty AffiliationLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherAlready Certain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertBernie MMatt DolFrank LaUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes44%44%0%0%0%0%0%39%39%46%45%0%29%46%39%0%0%0%44%26%44%0%45%30%0%44%44%0%0%98%16%21%29%35%51%36%49%--0%49%
No56%56%0%0%0%0%0%61%61%54%55%0%71%54%61%0%0%0%56%74%56%0%55%70%0%56%56%0%0%2%84%79%71%65%49%64%51%--100%51%
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republican Primary Voters100%100%0%0%0%0%0%9%14%42%35%0%6%81%13%0%0%0%98%2%100%0%93%7%0%100%100%0%0%29%27%21%23%44%56%40%60%11%89%
 
13None of the above?
568 Republican Primary VotersAllRegistered OHParty AffiliationLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 2.6 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherAlready Certain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertBernie MMatt DolFrank LaUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes11%11%0%0%0%0%0%14%6%14%8%0%9%10%14%0%0%0%11%8%11%0%11%10%0%11%11%0%0%0%4%1%40%0%19%0%18%0%19%--
No89%89%0%0%0%0%0%86%94%86%92%0%91%90%86%0%0%0%89%92%89%0%89%90%0%89%89%0%0%100%96%99%60%100%81%100%82%100%81%--
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republican Primary Voters100%100%0%0%0%0%0%9%14%42%35%0%6%81%13%0%0%0%98%2%100%0%93%7%0%100%100%0%0%29%27%21%23%44%56%40%60%44%56%