| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27128 |
| The Wall Street Phenomenon Which May Explain Why So Few Trump Voters Intend to Jump Ship if Former President is Convicted ...
No Change Month-on-Month in North Star State, as Biden Maintains 2-Point Edge vs. Trump and Klobuchar Holds Double-Digit Lead on Fraser: It's a lesson many amateur investors learn the hard way: you expect a stock price to change dramatically once a long-anticipated piece of news finally breaks — the FDA votes to approve or to not approve a new medication, a new product or new lawsuit is announced — and instead, nothing happens. Why not? Because the news was already "priced in," in Wall Street Terms — bigger investors fully expected the news and were already buying and selling the stock at a price that already factored in the story you were waiting for. That same concept may explain why 88% of Minnesotans planning to vote for Donald Trump this November say they'll still vote for him if he's found guilty in the "hush money" trial currently taking place in New York City, according to SurveyUSA's latest exclusive tracking poll for KSTP-TV Minneapolis, KAAL-TV Rochester, and WDIO-TV Duluth. 5% of his voters say they'll switch and vote for someone from another party; 6% aren't sure what they'll do; fewer than 1% each say they'll vote for Joe Biden or not vote at all. In SurveyUSA's estimation, 88% of Trump voters have already "priced in" a potential conviction in this case, and are comfortable voting for the former President regardless of what the jury decides. Overall, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are right where we left them one month ago, with Biden at 44%, Trump at 42%. 9% say they'll vote for a candidate from another party; 5% are undecided. Trump leads by 8 points among men (down from 10 points last month); Biden leads by 13 points among women (down from 15 points last month); combined, that's a 21-point gender gap. Biden continues to hold a strong lead among seniors, typically the most reliable voters, and has gained ground among the youngest and typically least reliable voters – movement that is offset by Trump gains among 35 to 49-year-old and 50 to 64-year-old voters. 87% of Republicans vote for Trump; 88% of Democrats vote for Biden; both these numbers are essentially unchanged across four SurveyUSA tracking polls this year. Among independents, who make up more than 1 in 5 likely November voters, Trump and Biden are tied at 36% each, with 20% saying they plan to vote for a third party candidate and 8% undecided. Democratic Incumbent US Senator Amy Klobuchar leads Republican Navy vet and banker Joe Fraser by 14 points today in her bid for a fourth term, down slightly from a 17-point lead last month, defeating him 48% to 34% in a hypothetical matchup today, with 5% looking to another candidate and 12% undecided. Klobuchar leads among men and women, among both young and old voters, and by 24 points in the Twin Cities area, 10 points in Northeastern Minnesota, and by 5 points in the southern part of the state. Fraser leads by 20 points in Western Minnesota. Republicans today increase their edge in generic state house balloting today, with 45% of likely voters saying they are generally more inclined to vote for a Republican, 43% for a Democrat; one month ago, Democrats were a nominal point stronger, at 44%. Before that, in January and February, Democrats had the advantage, leading first by 3, then by 5 points. Fully crosstabbed results follow. |
| About the Research / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 825 adults from the state of Minnesota 05/08/24 through 05/11/24. Of the adults, 710 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 625 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election and were asked the substantive questions which follow. This research was conducted online, using nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to US Census ACS targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership, and to recalled 2020 presidential vote. Click the "Triangle-T" icon where it appears on question numbers below to bring up SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graphs. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of Minnesota? |
| 825 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Likely November | Most Important Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Abortion | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Certain | Probable | Crime | Abortion | Gun Cont | Taxes | Economy | Immigrat | Governme | Health C | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | Always L | Legal w/ | Illegal | Never Le | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Twin Cit | S MN | W MN | NE MN | |
| Yes | 86% | 87% | 85% | 78% | 81% | 91% | 96% | 80% | 93% | 100% | 100% | ** | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 92% | 92% | 83% | 88% | 89% | 87% | 87% | 97% | 89% | 87% | 91% | 94% | 94% | 87% | 87% | 84% | 86% | 83% | 87% | 78% | 87% | 91% | 75% | 89% | 91% | 92% | 72% | 84% | 88% | 84% | 88% | 80% | 89% | 79% |
| No | 11% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 17% | 5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7% | 6% | 14% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 11% | 3% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 16% | 10% | 18% | 11% | 6% | 21% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 13% | 10% | 14% | 7% | 20% |
| Not Sure | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 50% | 50% | 29% | 25% | 24% | 22% | 53% | 47% | 77% | 11% | 5% | 11% | 6% | 7% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 11% | 31% | 35% | 24% | 11% | 24% | 32% | 15% | 12% | 35% | 32% | 27% | 36% | 42% | 27% | 38% | 28% | 6% | 26% | 72% | 29% | 35% | 37% | 26% | 38% | 36% | 72% | 28% | 23% | 51% | 27% | 61% | 12% | 14% | 13% |
| 2 | Minnesota will hold a general election for President, for United States Senate, and for other offices in November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Which best describes you? |
| 710 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Likely November | Most Important Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Abortion | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Certain | Probable | Crime | Abortion | Gun Cont | Taxes | Economy | Immigrat | Governme | Health C | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | Always L | Legal w/ | Illegal | Never Le | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Twin Cit | S MN | W MN | NE MN | |
| Certain To Vote | 77% | 75% | 78% | 53% | 77% | 86% | 92% | 64% | 89% | 100% | 0% | ** | 80% | 91% | 75% | 89% | 95% | 90% | 89% | 82% | 83% | 72% | 89% | 78% | 72% | 75% | 89% | 82% | 72% | 82% | 82% | 83% | 78% | 76% | 75% | 85% | 83% | 75% | 69% | 77% | 83% | 72% | 75% | 82% | 81% | 62% | 73% | 79% | 77% | 77% | 61% | 78% | 90% |
| Will Probably Vote | 11% | 12% | 11% | 22% | 12% | 5% | 6% | 17% | 5% | 0% | 100% | ** | 20% | 9% | 25% | 11% | 5% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 14% | 2% | 10% | 14% | 8% | 11% | 9% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 16% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 10% | 6% |
| About 50/50 | 9% | 10% | 8% | 21% | 8% | 8% | 0% | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 5% | 6% | 12% | 0% | 9% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 11% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 13% | 1% | 6% | 10% | 15% | 7% | 8% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 14% | 15% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 20% | 12% | 3% |
| Probably Will Not Vote | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 26% | 23% | 26% | 25% | 49% | 51% | 77% | 11% | 5% | 11% | 6% | 7% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 11% | 33% | 37% | 23% | 11% | 25% | 32% | 15% | 14% | 36% | 32% | 29% | 39% | 46% | 27% | 39% | 27% | 6% | 25% | 73% | 26% | 35% | 39% | 23% | 39% | 38% | 76% | 24% | 22% | 52% | 26% | 62% | 11% | 14% | 12% |
 | If the November election for President were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (Candidate names rotated) |
| 625 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Likely November | Most Important Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Abortion | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Certain | Probable | Crime | Abortion | Gun Cont | Taxes | Economy | Immigrat | Governme | Health C | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | Always L | Legal w/ | Illegal | Never Le | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Twin Cit | S MN | W MN | NE MN | |
| Donald Trump | 42% | 47% | 36% | 42% | 41% | 50% | 34% | 41% | 42% | 42% | 42% | ** | 11% | 9% | 64% | 52% | 80% | 50% | 11% | 87% | 3% | 36% | 93% | 69% | 34% | 4% | 2% | 77% | 34% | 3% | 89% | 1% | 18% | 34% | 68% | 82% | 44% | 41% | 56% | 40% | 35% | 45% | 38% | 43% | 42% | 40% | 34% | 39% | 52% | 35% | 49% | 60% | 47% |
| Joe Biden | 44% | 39% | 49% | 41% | 43% | 37% | 54% | 42% | 45% | 45% | 34% | ** | 71% | 78% | 18% | 35% | 12% | 33% | 67% | 4% | 88% | 36% | 5% | 16% | 46% | 85% | 84% | 12% | 46% | 85% | 2% | 86% | 69% | 48% | 20% | 9% | 40% | 46% | 32% | 45% | 50% | 41% | 47% | 43% | 44% | 45% | 55% | 44% | 36% | 50% | 35% | 26% | 40% |
| Other | 9% | 9% | 9% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 11% | 7% | 9% | 10% | ** | 10% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 5% | 5% | 20% | 1% | 9% | 11% | 8% | 11% | 7% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% |
| Undecided | 5% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 14% | ** | 8% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 7% | 10% | 4% | 4% | 8% | 1% | 5% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 6% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 22% | 23% | 27% | 28% | 46% | 54% | 87% | 13% | 5% | 11% | 6% | 7% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 11% | 35% | 39% | 22% | 13% | 25% | 31% | 15% | 14% | 38% | 31% | 29% | 42% | 49% | 28% | 39% | 26% | 7% | 26% | 72% | 24% | 36% | 40% | 21% | 39% | 40% | 79% | 21% | 20% | 53% | 27% | 63% | 10% | 14% | 13% |
 | If the November election for US Senate were today, and these were the candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for? DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar? GOP candidate Joe Fraser? Or a candidate from another party? |
| 625 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Likely November | Most Important Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Abortion | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Certain | Probable | Crime | Abortion | Gun Cont | Taxes | Economy | Immigrat | Governme | Health C | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | Always L | Legal w/ | Illegal | Never Le | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Twin Cit | S MN | W MN | NE MN | |
| Amy Klobuchar | 48% | 43% | 54% | 37% | 51% | 45% | 59% | 44% | 52% | 50% | 40% | ** | 75% | 82% | 25% | 40% | 21% | 35% | 74% | 12% | 85% | 47% | 7% | 19% | 54% | 91% | 83% | 15% | 54% | 87% | 11% | 85% | 73% | 54% | 24% | 12% | 44% | 50% | 40% | 50% | 52% | 53% | 49% | 46% | 49% | 47% | 56% | 47% | 44% | 53% | 47% | 34% | 45% |
| Joe Fraser | 34% | 37% | 32% | 29% | 35% | 42% | 32% | 32% | 37% | 35% | 32% | ** | 8% | 11% | 40% | 43% | 71% | 41% | 9% | 73% | 3% | 31% | 85% | 66% | 19% | 3% | 1% | 72% | 19% | 2% | 72% | 3% | 12% | 30% | 57% | 66% | 32% | 35% | 39% | 33% | 33% | 34% | 31% | 38% | 35% | 31% | 26% | 35% | 39% | 29% | 42% | 54% | 35% |
| Other | 5% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 5% | 10% | ** | 7% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 4% | 9% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 10% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
| Undecided | 12% | 15% | 9% | 24% | 9% | 11% | 7% | 16% | 9% | 11% | 18% | ** | 9% | 4% | 34% | 13% | 6% | 13% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 13% | 5% | 10% | 22% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 22% | 5% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 13% | 13% | 19% | 19% | 10% | 18% | 9% | 11% | 7% | 16% | 12% | 11% | 18% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 9% | 11% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 22% | 23% | 27% | 28% | 46% | 54% | 87% | 13% | 5% | 11% | 6% | 7% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 11% | 35% | 39% | 22% | 13% | 25% | 31% | 15% | 14% | 38% | 31% | 29% | 42% | 49% | 28% | 39% | 26% | 7% | 26% | 72% | 24% | 36% | 40% | 21% | 39% | 40% | 79% | 21% | 20% | 53% | 27% | 63% | 10% | 14% | 13% |
 | All 134 Minnesota House seats are up for election in 2024. In the Minnesota House election in your district, are you generally more inclined to vote for a Republican? A Democrat? Or a candidate from another party? |
| 625 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Likely November | Most Important Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Abortion | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Certain | Probable | Crime | Abortion | Gun Cont | Taxes | Economy | Immigrat | Governme | Health C | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | Always L | Legal w/ | Illegal | Never Le | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Twin Cit | S MN | W MN | NE MN | |
| A Republican | 45% | 50% | 41% | 43% | 44% | 53% | 41% | 44% | 47% | 45% | 45% | ** | 15% | 20% | 66% | 51% | 81% | 58% | 21% | 95% | 4% | 40% | 96% | 84% | 34% | 4% | 1% | 88% | 34% | 2% | 90% | 8% | 17% | 41% | 70% | 89% | 47% | 45% | 53% | 43% | 43% | 48% | 42% | 47% | 46% | 43% | 34% | 46% | 53% | 40% | 54% | 64% | 46% |
| A Democrat | 43% | 37% | 49% | 47% | 41% | 36% | 48% | 44% | 42% | 44% | 32% | ** | 73% | 77% | 20% | 36% | 13% | 27% | 65% | 1% | 92% | 30% | 2% | 9% | 44% | 87% | 93% | 7% | 44% | 90% | 2% | 81% | 73% | 47% | 14% | 7% | 42% | 43% | 35% | 42% | 48% | 42% | 44% | 42% | 42% | 46% | 56% | 43% | 32% | 48% | 35% | 24% | 43% |
| Another Candidate | 4% | 5% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 7% | ** | 8% | 0% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 11% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 3% |
| Undecided | 8% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 16% | ** | 4% | 4% | 7% | 11% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 2% | 4% | 19% | 0% | 4% | 17% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 17% | 4% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 10% | 10% | 3% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 11% | 8% | 10% | 8% | 8% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 22% | 23% | 27% | 28% | 46% | 54% | 87% | 13% | 5% | 11% | 6% | 7% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 11% | 35% | 39% | 22% | 13% | 25% | 31% | 15% | 14% | 38% | 31% | 29% | 42% | 49% | 28% | 39% | 26% | 7% | 26% | 72% | 24% | 36% | 40% | 21% | 39% | 40% | 79% | 21% | 20% | 53% | 27% | 63% | 10% | 14% | 13% |
 | If you had to pick one issue that is most important to you in the 2024 elections, what would it be? |
| 625 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Likely November | Most Important Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Abortion | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Certain | Probable | Crime | Abortion | Gun Cont | Taxes | Economy | Immigrat | Governme | Health C | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | Always L | Legal w/ | Illegal | Never Le | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Twin Cit | S MN | W MN | NE MN | |
| Crime | 5% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 5% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 5% |
| Abortion | 11% | 10% | 12% | 19% | 8% | 12% | 7% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 18% | ** | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 18% | 11% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 17% | 23% | 5% | 10% | 20% | 3% | 18% | 20% | 9% | 5% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 7% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 14% | 10% | 10% | 17% | 9% | 14% | 7% | 13% | 5% | 7% | 10% |
| Gun Control | 6% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 8% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 4% | ** | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 12% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 1% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 11% | 3% | 3% |
| Taxes | 7% | 9% | 5% | 11% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 13% | ** | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9% | 2% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 11% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 7% |
| Economy | 28% | 30% | 27% | 21% | 32% | 33% | 26% | 27% | 29% | 29% | 24% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 35% | 23% | 27% | 27% | 34% | 27% | 29% | 19% | 32% | 27% | 24% | 35% | 23% | 19% | 32% | 36% | 16% | 41% | 24% | 30% | 29% | 26% | 25% | 27% | 31% | 30% | 23% | 25% | 29% | 29% | 27% | 29% | 33% | 30% |
| Immigration | 16% | 20% | 13% | 9% | 12% | 20% | 22% | 11% | 21% | 18% | 6% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 31% | 5% | 16% | 42% | 29% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 33% | 9% | 4% | 31% | 5% | 6% | 15% | 28% | 25% | 7% | 20% | 21% | 16% | 14% | 24% | 12% | 18% | 18% | 13% | 13% | 16% | 21% | 14% | 16% | 25% | 17% |
| Government Spending | 6% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 4% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 9% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 5% |
| Health Care | 11% | 10% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 8% | 11% | 14% | 9% | 12% | 9% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 4% | 17% | 13% | 2% | 5% | 15% | 15% | 20% | 4% | 15% | 17% | 3% | 18% | 18% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 8% | 10% | 16% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 13% |
| Education | 5% | 4% | 6% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 9% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 1% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 7% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 8% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 2% | 3% |
| Policing | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| Other | 4% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 1% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 0% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 5% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 22% | 23% | 27% | 28% | 46% | 54% | 87% | 13% | 5% | 11% | 6% | 7% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 11% | 35% | 39% | 22% | 13% | 25% | 31% | 15% | 14% | 38% | 31% | 29% | 42% | 49% | 28% | 39% | 26% | 7% | 26% | 72% | 24% | 36% | 40% | 21% | 39% | 40% | 79% | 21% | 20% | 53% | 27% | 63% | 10% | 14% | 13% |
| 7 | If Donald Trump is found guilty in the "hush money" trial currently taking place in New York City, will you most likely still vote for Trump? Switch your vote to Biden? Switch your vote to a candidate from another party? Or not vote for President at all? |
| 260 Trump Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Likely November | Most Important Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Abortion | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Certain | Probable | Crime | Abortion | Gun Cont | Taxes | Economy | Immigrat | Governme | Health C | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | Always L | Legal w/ | Illegal | Never Le | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Twin Cit | S MN | W MN | NE MN | |
| Still Vote For Trump | 88% | 90% | 86% | 84% | 91% | 89% | 89% | 88% | 89% | 91% | 70% | ** | ** | ** | 93% | 87% | 95% | 81% | ** | 90% | ** | 86% | 93% | 90% | 83% | ** | ** | 92% | 83% | ** | 92% | ** | 92% | 83% | 87% | 100% | 89% | 88% | 89% | 88% | 88% | 86% | 93% | 85% | 87% | 93% | 93% | 90% | 84% | 88% | 74% | 93% | 94% |
| Switch To Biden | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | ** | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | ** | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 0% | ** | 0% | ** | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Switch To Another Party | 5% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 13% | ** | ** | ** | 5% | 5% | 1% | 14% | ** | 5% | ** | 6% | 6% | 3% | 8% | ** | ** | 4% | 8% | ** | 3% | ** | 6% | 9% | 4% | 0% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 11% | 6% | 0% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 4% | 0% |
| Not Vote | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 0% | ** | 0% | ** | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Not Sure | 6% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 15% | ** | ** | ** | 0% | 7% | 3% | 4% | ** | 4% | ** | 7% | 1% | 7% | 8% | ** | ** | 4% | 8% | ** | 5% | ** | 0% | 7% | 9% | 0% | 3% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 11% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 10% | 5% | 16% | 3% | 6% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Trump Voters | 100% | 57% | 43% | 22% | 23% | 32% | 23% | 45% | 55% | 87% | 13% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 10% | 35% | 32% | 7% | 3% | 73% | 3% | 19% | 28% | 42% | 26% | 2% | 1% | 70% | 26% | 2% | 89% | 2% | 12% | 32% | 43% | 14% | 28% | 70% | 32% | 34% | 34% | 23% | 36% | 41% | 80% | 20% | 17% | 50% | 33% | 53% | 12% | 21% | 14% |