Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20103
 
In Minnesota's 8th Congressional District, Nolan and Cravaack Nose-to-Nose at the Wire: 48 hours till votes are counted in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District, a whisker separates DFL candidate Rick Nolan and Republican Chip Cravaack, with a possible advantage to Nolan, who for the 2nd SurveyUSA poll in a row, leads, but within the survey's possible sources of error. It's Nolan 47%, Cravaack 45%, with 8% of voters undecided heading into the campaign's final day. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 4 weeks ago, Cravaack is flat, Nolan is up 1 point. Though the high-level results have not changed much, Nolan has higher "unfavorable" numbers than he had 1 month ago. Nolan is newly seen as stronger on mining issues. Nolan is newly seen as better able to bring jobs to the 8th district. Cell-phone and home-phone respondents are included in this research, which was conducted 100% by telephone. 585 likely voters were interviewed 11/01/12 through 11/03/12.
 
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from Minnesota's 8th Congressional District were today, would you vote for... (candidate names rotated) Republican Chip Cravaack? Or DFL Candidate Rick Nolan?
585 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Chip Cravaack (R)45%46%43%46%40%50%42%43%46%34%47%91%7%49%83%30%5%89%6%33%51%42%49%43%46%43%48%
Rick Nolan (DFL)47%44%51%41%51%44%52%47%48%43%49%5%88%40%12%65%86%7%88%62%40%46%45%51%47%51%44%
Undecided8%10%6%13%9%6%7%11%6%22%5%4%6%11%6%5%9%4%6%5%9%12%7%6%7%6%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%23%33%27%40%60%19%81%28%37%32%38%36%18%44%49%29%69%19%38%43%25%44%31%
 
Is your opinion of Chip Cravaack ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
585 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Favorable39%41%36%38%39%41%36%39%39%34%40%80%7%41%73%24%7%75%7%31%43%35%43%38%37%40%41%
Unfavorable35%33%36%23%36%37%39%30%38%18%39%4%62%31%8%43%70%5%63%48%29%35%30%39%33%36%35%
Neutral18%18%19%24%17%17%19%20%18%20%18%10%22%21%12%26%15%15%22%16%19%20%18%17%20%18%18%
No Opinion8%7%9%16%8%6%6%11%6%28%3%6%9%7%7%7%8%5%8%6%9%10%9%6%10%7%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%23%33%27%40%60%19%81%28%37%32%38%36%18%44%49%29%69%19%38%43%25%44%31%
 
Is your opinion of Rick Nolan ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
585 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Favorable35%35%34%28%36%33%39%32%36%29%36%5%67%26%10%40%74%6%65%48%29%37%30%39%33%37%34%
Unfavorable33%36%31%28%26%40%35%26%38%21%36%62%7%38%61%20%7%63%6%28%36%32%39%28%33%33%32%
Neutral22%21%23%25%24%20%20%25%20%22%22%19%19%27%17%29%13%20%22%17%24%21%22%21%23%22%21%
No Opinion10%8%12%19%14%7%5%16%6%28%6%14%7%9%11%11%6%11%6%7%12%10%9%11%11%8%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%23%33%27%40%60%19%81%28%37%32%38%36%18%44%49%29%69%19%38%43%25%44%31%
 
Who is stronger on mining issues?
585 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Chip Cravaack (R)34%36%33%30%33%39%32%32%36%27%36%65%8%40%63%24%6%65%7%29%37%32%38%33%34%33%39%
Rick Nolan (DFL)37%37%37%26%31%43%43%29%43%25%40%6%68%31%12%46%71%6%68%49%32%42%34%39%40%40%34%
Not Sure29%27%30%44%36%18%25%39%22%48%24%29%25%30%25%30%22%29%24%22%31%27%28%29%26%27%28%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%23%33%27%40%60%19%81%28%37%32%38%36%18%44%49%29%69%19%38%43%25%44%31%
 
Who will do more to protect Medicare?
585 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Chip Cravaack (R)35%36%34%28%29%42%36%29%39%23%38%71%6%39%68%22%5%72%5%27%39%33%42%30%40%34%33%
Rick Nolan (DFL)45%43%47%36%44%47%50%40%48%31%49%8%81%38%13%60%84%6%82%60%38%44%41%49%42%50%42%
Not Sure20%21%19%36%27%12%15%31%13%45%14%21%13%23%19%19%12%21%13%13%23%23%16%21%18%16%24%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%23%33%27%40%60%19%81%28%37%32%38%36%18%44%49%29%69%19%38%43%25%44%31%
 
Who will do more to bring jobs to the district?
585 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Chip Cravaack (R)40%42%38%37%37%45%38%37%42%27%43%80%6%46%76%26%5%79%6%32%44%37%46%37%40%38%44%
Rick Nolan (DFL)43%41%44%35%41%45%47%38%46%37%45%5%80%35%12%55%82%5%80%58%37%46%40%46%45%46%39%
Not Sure17%17%18%28%22%10%15%25%12%37%12%15%13%19%13%19%12%16%14%10%19%17%14%17%16%15%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%23%33%27%40%60%19%81%28%37%32%38%36%18%44%49%29%69%19%38%43%25%44%31%
 
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?
585 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Mitt Romney (R)44%46%43%48%42%46%42%44%44%42%45%94%5%48%80%30%5%100%0%34%50%37%50%43%47%43%47%
Barack Obama (D)49%45%52%42%52%46%52%48%49%46%49%4%93%38%12%65%90%0%100%61%43%54%45%51%48%51%47%
Other4%4%3%6%3%3%3%4%3%2%4%1%0%10%4%4%0%0%0%3%4%5%3%3%2%5%4%
Undecided3%4%2%3%3%4%3%3%3%10%1%1%2%4%3%1%5%0%0%2%4%4%2%3%3%2%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%18%23%33%27%40%60%19%81%28%37%32%38%36%18%44%49%29%69%19%38%43%25%44%31%