| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20103 |
| In Minnesota's 8th Congressional District, Nolan and Cravaack Nose-to-Nose at the Wire: 48 hours till votes are counted in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District, a whisker separates DFL candidate Rick Nolan and Republican Chip Cravaack, with a possible advantage to Nolan, who for the 2nd SurveyUSA poll in a row, leads, but within the survey's possible sources of error. It's Nolan 47%, Cravaack 45%, with 8% of voters undecided heading into the campaign's final day. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 4 weeks ago, Cravaack is flat, Nolan is up 1 point. Though the high-level results have not changed much, Nolan has higher "unfavorable" numbers than he had 1 month ago. Nolan is newly seen as stronger on mining issues. Nolan is newly seen as better able to bring jobs to the 8th district. Cell-phone and home-phone respondents are included in this research, which was conducted 100% by telephone. 585 likely voters were interviewed 11/01/12 through 11/03/12. |
 | If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from Minnesota's 8th Congressional District were today, would you vote for... (candidate names rotated) Republican Chip Cravaack? Or DFL Candidate Rick Nolan? |
| 585 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Presidential Vot | Union | Education | Income | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Mitt Rom | Barack O | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Chip Cravaack (R) | 45% | 46% | 43% | 46% | 40% | 50% | 42% | 43% | 46% | 34% | 47% | 91% | 7% | 49% | 83% | 30% | 5% | 89% | 6% | 33% | 51% | 42% | 49% | 43% | 46% | 43% | 48% |
| Rick Nolan (DFL) | 47% | 44% | 51% | 41% | 51% | 44% | 52% | 47% | 48% | 43% | 49% | 5% | 88% | 40% | 12% | 65% | 86% | 7% | 88% | 62% | 40% | 46% | 45% | 51% | 47% | 51% | 44% |
| Undecided | 8% | 10% | 6% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 11% | 6% | 22% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 11% | 6% | 5% | 9% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 8% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 18% | 23% | 33% | 27% | 40% | 60% | 19% | 81% | 28% | 37% | 32% | 38% | 36% | 18% | 44% | 49% | 29% | 69% | 19% | 38% | 43% | 25% | 44% | 31% |
 | Is your opinion of Chip Cravaack ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other? |
| 585 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Presidential Vot | Union | Education | Income | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Mitt Rom | Barack O | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Favorable | 39% | 41% | 36% | 38% | 39% | 41% | 36% | 39% | 39% | 34% | 40% | 80% | 7% | 41% | 73% | 24% | 7% | 75% | 7% | 31% | 43% | 35% | 43% | 38% | 37% | 40% | 41% |
| Unfavorable | 35% | 33% | 36% | 23% | 36% | 37% | 39% | 30% | 38% | 18% | 39% | 4% | 62% | 31% | 8% | 43% | 70% | 5% | 63% | 48% | 29% | 35% | 30% | 39% | 33% | 36% | 35% |
| Neutral | 18% | 18% | 19% | 24% | 17% | 17% | 19% | 20% | 18% | 20% | 18% | 10% | 22% | 21% | 12% | 26% | 15% | 15% | 22% | 16% | 19% | 20% | 18% | 17% | 20% | 18% | 18% |
| No Opinion | 8% | 7% | 9% | 16% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 11% | 6% | 28% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 6% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 18% | 23% | 33% | 27% | 40% | 60% | 19% | 81% | 28% | 37% | 32% | 38% | 36% | 18% | 44% | 49% | 29% | 69% | 19% | 38% | 43% | 25% | 44% | 31% |
 | Is your opinion of Rick Nolan ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other? |
| 585 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Presidential Vot | Union | Education | Income | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Mitt Rom | Barack O | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Favorable | 35% | 35% | 34% | 28% | 36% | 33% | 39% | 32% | 36% | 29% | 36% | 5% | 67% | 26% | 10% | 40% | 74% | 6% | 65% | 48% | 29% | 37% | 30% | 39% | 33% | 37% | 34% |
| Unfavorable | 33% | 36% | 31% | 28% | 26% | 40% | 35% | 26% | 38% | 21% | 36% | 62% | 7% | 38% | 61% | 20% | 7% | 63% | 6% | 28% | 36% | 32% | 39% | 28% | 33% | 33% | 32% |
| Neutral | 22% | 21% | 23% | 25% | 24% | 20% | 20% | 25% | 20% | 22% | 22% | 19% | 19% | 27% | 17% | 29% | 13% | 20% | 22% | 17% | 24% | 21% | 22% | 21% | 23% | 22% | 21% |
| No Opinion | 10% | 8% | 12% | 19% | 14% | 7% | 5% | 16% | 6% | 28% | 6% | 14% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 6% | 11% | 6% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 8% | 13% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 18% | 23% | 33% | 27% | 40% | 60% | 19% | 81% | 28% | 37% | 32% | 38% | 36% | 18% | 44% | 49% | 29% | 69% | 19% | 38% | 43% | 25% | 44% | 31% |
 | Who is stronger on mining issues? |
| 585 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Presidential Vot | Union | Education | Income | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Mitt Rom | Barack O | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Chip Cravaack (R) | 34% | 36% | 33% | 30% | 33% | 39% | 32% | 32% | 36% | 27% | 36% | 65% | 8% | 40% | 63% | 24% | 6% | 65% | 7% | 29% | 37% | 32% | 38% | 33% | 34% | 33% | 39% |
| Rick Nolan (DFL) | 37% | 37% | 37% | 26% | 31% | 43% | 43% | 29% | 43% | 25% | 40% | 6% | 68% | 31% | 12% | 46% | 71% | 6% | 68% | 49% | 32% | 42% | 34% | 39% | 40% | 40% | 34% |
| Not Sure | 29% | 27% | 30% | 44% | 36% | 18% | 25% | 39% | 22% | 48% | 24% | 29% | 25% | 30% | 25% | 30% | 22% | 29% | 24% | 22% | 31% | 27% | 28% | 29% | 26% | 27% | 28% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 18% | 23% | 33% | 27% | 40% | 60% | 19% | 81% | 28% | 37% | 32% | 38% | 36% | 18% | 44% | 49% | 29% | 69% | 19% | 38% | 43% | 25% | 44% | 31% |
 | Who will do more to protect Medicare? |
| 585 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Presidential Vot | Union | Education | Income | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Mitt Rom | Barack O | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Chip Cravaack (R) | 35% | 36% | 34% | 28% | 29% | 42% | 36% | 29% | 39% | 23% | 38% | 71% | 6% | 39% | 68% | 22% | 5% | 72% | 5% | 27% | 39% | 33% | 42% | 30% | 40% | 34% | 33% |
| Rick Nolan (DFL) | 45% | 43% | 47% | 36% | 44% | 47% | 50% | 40% | 48% | 31% | 49% | 8% | 81% | 38% | 13% | 60% | 84% | 6% | 82% | 60% | 38% | 44% | 41% | 49% | 42% | 50% | 42% |
| Not Sure | 20% | 21% | 19% | 36% | 27% | 12% | 15% | 31% | 13% | 45% | 14% | 21% | 13% | 23% | 19% | 19% | 12% | 21% | 13% | 13% | 23% | 23% | 16% | 21% | 18% | 16% | 24% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 18% | 23% | 33% | 27% | 40% | 60% | 19% | 81% | 28% | 37% | 32% | 38% | 36% | 18% | 44% | 49% | 29% | 69% | 19% | 38% | 43% | 25% | 44% | 31% |
 | Who will do more to bring jobs to the district? |
| 585 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Presidential Vot | Union | Education | Income | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Mitt Rom | Barack O | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Chip Cravaack (R) | 40% | 42% | 38% | 37% | 37% | 45% | 38% | 37% | 42% | 27% | 43% | 80% | 6% | 46% | 76% | 26% | 5% | 79% | 6% | 32% | 44% | 37% | 46% | 37% | 40% | 38% | 44% |
| Rick Nolan (DFL) | 43% | 41% | 44% | 35% | 41% | 45% | 47% | 38% | 46% | 37% | 45% | 5% | 80% | 35% | 12% | 55% | 82% | 5% | 80% | 58% | 37% | 46% | 40% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 39% |
| Not Sure | 17% | 17% | 18% | 28% | 22% | 10% | 15% | 25% | 12% | 37% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 19% | 13% | 19% | 12% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 19% | 17% | 14% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 17% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 18% | 23% | 33% | 27% | 40% | 60% | 19% | 81% | 28% | 37% | 32% | 38% | 36% | 18% | 44% | 49% | 29% | 69% | 19% | 38% | 43% | 25% | 44% | 31% |
 | If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates? |
| 585 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Presidential Vot | Union | Education | Income | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Mitt Rom | Barack O | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Mitt Romney (R) | 44% | 46% | 43% | 48% | 42% | 46% | 42% | 44% | 44% | 42% | 45% | 94% | 5% | 48% | 80% | 30% | 5% | 100% | 0% | 34% | 50% | 37% | 50% | 43% | 47% | 43% | 47% |
| Barack Obama (D) | 49% | 45% | 52% | 42% | 52% | 46% | 52% | 48% | 49% | 46% | 49% | 4% | 93% | 38% | 12% | 65% | 90% | 0% | 100% | 61% | 43% | 54% | 45% | 51% | 48% | 51% | 47% |
| Other | 4% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 10% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 4% |
| Undecided | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 18% | 23% | 33% | 27% | 40% | 60% | 19% | 81% | 28% | 37% | 32% | 38% | 36% | 18% | 44% | 49% | 29% | 69% | 19% | 38% | 43% | 25% | 44% | 31% |