| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14731 |
| Democrat Obama, Republican Collins Waltz to Finish Line in Ticket-Splitting Maine: In an election for President of the United States in Maine today, 11/01/08, three days until votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 58% to 38%, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-election tracking poll, conducted for WCSH-TV Portland and WLBZ-TV Bangor. Obama's lead has steadily increased over the past month, from 5 points on September 24, to 15 points on October 21, to 20 points today. Among Mainers who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads decisively. Among those who have not yet voted, the contest is closer, but still Obama is ahead by double digits. In the race for US Senate, incumbent Republican Susan Collins is re-elected, in a year when few incumbent Republicans are. Allen defeats Democrat Tom Allen 56% to 42%. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 Maine adults 10/29/08 through 10/31/08. Of them, 748 were registered to vote. Of them, 674 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote on or before Tuesday. |
 | If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates? |
| 674 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Income | Intellectual? | Traveled Abroad | Speak Another La | USA Super Power | Own a Gun? | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | < $50K | > $50K | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | CD #1 | CD #2 | |
| McCain (R) | 38% | 41% | 35% | 33% | 41% | 36% | 39% | 38% | 37% | 37% | 40% | 37% | 38% | ** | ** | ** | 76% | 9% | 35% | 73% | 31% | 8% | 29% | 41% | 36% | 39% | 46% | 40% | 29% | 61% | 26% | 33% | 41% | 37% | 39% | 39% | 30% | 36% | 38% | 42% | 20% | 44% | 29% | 37% | 39% |
| Obama (D) | 58% | 55% | 60% | 61% | 56% | 59% | 55% | 58% | 57% | 58% | 53% | 58% | 58% | ** | ** | ** | 21% | 89% | 55% | 22% | 65% | 88% | 70% | 53% | 61% | 55% | 49% | 56% | 66% | 32% | 70% | 62% | 55% | 59% | 55% | 56% | 66% | 58% | 58% | 55% | 73% | 51% | 67% | 60% | 55% |
| Other | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% |
| Undecided | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 20% | 33% | 26% | 21% | 53% | 47% | 46% | 11% | 42% | 98% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 32% | 40% | 28% | 28% | 45% | 22% | 27% | 73% | 45% | 55% | 32% | 29% | 39% | 32% | 66% | 44% | 56% | 70% | 26% | 81% | 19% | 27% | 72% | 80% | 15% | 50% | 49% | 54% | 46% |
 | Maine will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for United States Senator were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Susan Collins? Or Democrat Tom Allen? |
| 674 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Income | Intellectual? | Traveled Abroad | Speak Another La | USA Super Power | Own a Gun? | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | < $50K | > $50K | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | CD #1 | CD #2 | |
| Susan Collins (R) | 56% | 57% | 55% | 50% | 59% | 58% | 56% | 56% | 57% | 55% | 54% | 58% | 56% | ** | ** | ** | 86% | 29% | 61% | 83% | 54% | 30% | 44% | 61% | 57% | 56% | 62% | 59% | 50% | 75% | 48% | 50% | 62% | 57% | 59% | 59% | 50% | 59% | 57% | 60% | 47% | 63% | 50% | 57% | 56% |
| Tom Allen (D) | 42% | 42% | 42% | 48% | 40% | 41% | 42% | 43% | 41% | 43% | 43% | 41% | 42% | ** | ** | ** | 14% | 69% | 36% | 16% | 45% | 68% | 55% | 37% | 42% | 42% | 37% | 41% | 47% | 23% | 51% | 47% | 37% | 42% | 39% | 40% | 48% | 40% | 42% | 39% | 52% | 36% | 47% | 42% | 42% |
| Undecided | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | ** | ** | ** | 0% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 20% | 33% | 26% | 21% | 53% | 47% | 46% | 11% | 42% | 98% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 32% | 40% | 28% | 28% | 45% | 22% | 27% | 73% | 45% | 55% | 32% | 29% | 39% | 32% | 66% | 44% | 56% | 70% | 26% | 81% | 19% | 27% | 72% | 80% | 15% | 50% | 49% | 54% | 46% |