| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20099 |
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In Missouri, 2 Days Till Votes Are Counted, McCaskill Poised to Defeat Akin, Hold U.S. Senate Seat for Democrats:
In an election for United States Senator from Missouri, incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill leads at the wire, having assembled a coalition that should allow her to defeat Republican challenger Todd Akin, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSDK-TV in St Louis, KSHB-TV in Kansas City, and KSPR-TV and KYTV-TV in Springfield. The contest has national significance. McCaskill gets 51% to 36% for Akin, with Libertarian Jonathan Dine far back at 8%. If Dine's support should collapse on Election Day, those votes almost certainly will go to Akin and will reduce the McCaskill margin of victory shown here. Akin holds just 66% of the Republican base, compared to McCaskill, who holds 93% of the Democratic base. McCaskill leads among Independents by 24 points, and leads among moderates by 48 points. Of those voting for Barack Obama for President, 97% are also voting for the Democrat McCaskill. But of those voting for Mitt Romney for President, just 70% are also voting for Republican Akin. In the election for Governor of Missouri, incumbent Democrat Jay Nixon defeats Republican challenger Dave Spence 48% to 39%. White voters split, 44% to 44%. Nixon's entire margin of victory comes from African American voters, who break 11:1 for Nixon. Mitt Romney carries Missouri 50% to 43%, defeating Barack Obama by 7 points, and keeping Missouri's 10 electoral votes Republican red. Romney leads by 38 points among evangelical voters, and by 50 points among pro-life voters. Obama carries greater St. Louis and effectively ties Romney in greater Kansas City. But Romney has overpowering strength in Southwestern MO and in Northern MO. Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults from the state of Missouri 10/28/12 through 11/03/12. Of the adults, 643 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 589 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop or other electronic device. |
| 1 | If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates? |
| 589 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Presidential Vot | Governor Vote | Senate Vote | Evangelical | Abortion | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Romney ( | Obama (D | Spence ( | Nixon (D | Akin (R) | McCaskil | Yes | No | Pro-life | Pro-choi | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Northern | Kansas C | Southwes | St. Loui | Southeas | |
| Mitt Romney (R) | 50% | 48% | 52% | 43% | 49% | 48% | 62% | 46% | 54% | 56% | 10% | 38% | 55% | 88% | 8% | 44% | 89% | 45% | 80% | 35% | 16% | 100% | 0% | 95% | 18% | 97% | 13% | 66% | 38% | 72% | 29% | 53% | 46% | 51% | 42% | 54% | 55% | 62% | 47% | 57% | 44% | 45% |
| Barack Obama (D) | 43% | 46% | 41% | 50% | 42% | 45% | 34% | 46% | 40% | 37% | 88% | 51% | 40% | 6% | 89% | 44% | 7% | 47% | 15% | 56% | 78% | 0% | 100% | 2% | 79% | 0% | 82% | 28% | 55% | 22% | 65% | 34% | 50% | 42% | 49% | 40% | 42% | 30% | 46% | 38% | 50% | 41% |
| Other | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 7% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 11% |
| Undecided | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 6% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 26% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 83% | 10% | 28% | 72% | 38% | 31% | 29% | 9% | 88% | 40% | 41% | 15% | 50% | 43% | 39% | 48% | 36% | 51% | 42% | 50% | 47% | 48% | 24% | 35% | 41% | 39% | 39% | 22% | 15% | 20% | 18% | 37% | 9% |
| 2 | Do you cast this vote enthusiastically? Or, with reservations? |
| 571 Who Are Not Undecided | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Presidential Vot | Governor Vote | Senate Vote | Evangelical | Abortion | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Romney ( | Obama (D | Spence ( | Nixon (D | Akin (R) | McCaskil | Yes | No | Pro-life | Pro-choi | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Northern | Kansas C | Southwes | St. Loui | Southeas | |
| Enthusiastically | 74% | 71% | 77% | 61% | 68% | 83% | 86% | 65% | 84% | 72% | 84% | 56% | 81% | 74% | 84% | 65% | 92% | 72% | 83% | 65% | 74% | 75% | 76% | 79% | 77% | 81% | 72% | 77% | 73% | 76% | 74% | 72% | 74% | 76% | 69% | 77% | 79% | 64% | 80% | 72% | 78% | 71% |
| With Reservations | 24% | 28% | 21% | 38% | 30% | 17% | 13% | 34% | 15% | 26% | 15% | 43% | 18% | 24% | 15% | 35% | 8% | 26% | 17% | 32% | 25% | 24% | 23% | 21% | 22% | 18% | 27% | 23% | 25% | 23% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 23% | 29% | 23% | 21% | 32% | 19% | 27% | 22% | 27% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Who Are Not Undecided | 100% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 26% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 84% | 10% | 27% | 73% | 39% | 32% | 29% | 9% | 87% | 41% | 40% | 15% | 51% | 44% | 41% | 48% | 37% | 52% | 43% | 51% | 48% | 48% | 23% | 35% | 42% | 38% | 40% | 22% | 15% | 20% | 19% | 37% | 9% |
| 3 | Missouri will also elect a Governor. If the election for Governor were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Dave Spence? Democrat Jay Nixon? Or Libertarian Jim Higgins? |
| 589 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Presidential Vot | Governor Vote | Senate Vote | Evangelical | Abortion | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Romney ( | Obama (D | Spence ( | Nixon (D | Akin (R) | McCaskil | Yes | No | Pro-life | Pro-choi | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Northern | Kansas C | Southwes | St. Loui | Southeas | |
| Dave Spence (R) | 39% | 35% | 43% | 32% | 39% | 42% | 46% | 35% | 43% | 44% | 7% | 26% | 45% | 73% | 6% | 32% | 77% | 36% | 69% | 22% | 14% | 75% | 2% | 100% | 0% | 87% | 7% | 53% | 30% | 60% | 21% | 41% | 34% | 44% | 34% | 44% | 42% | 51% | 37% | 44% | 35% | 34% |
| Jay Nixon (D) | 48% | 51% | 45% | 44% | 47% | 51% | 47% | 45% | 50% | 44% | 78% | 49% | 47% | 17% | 86% | 47% | 17% | 51% | 22% | 62% | 73% | 17% | 87% | 0% | 100% | 10% | 80% | 36% | 56% | 27% | 68% | 42% | 52% | 46% | 47% | 46% | 50% | 33% | 52% | 42% | 53% | 52% |
| Jim Higgins (L) | 5% | 7% | 2% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 9% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 3% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 1% |
| Undecided | 8% | 7% | 9% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 12% | 5% | 9% | 4% | 17% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 11% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 11% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 5% | 11% | 9% | 6% | 12% | 7% | 4% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 13% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 26% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 83% | 10% | 28% | 72% | 38% | 31% | 29% | 9% | 88% | 40% | 41% | 15% | 50% | 43% | 39% | 48% | 36% | 51% | 42% | 50% | 47% | 48% | 24% | 35% | 41% | 39% | 39% | 22% | 15% | 20% | 18% | 37% | 9% |
| 4 | Do you cast this vote enthusiastically? Or with reservations? |
| 540 Who Are Not Undecided | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Presidential Vot | Governor Vote | Senate Vote | Evangelical | Abortion | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Romney ( | Obama (D | Spence ( | Nixon (D | Akin (R) | McCaskil | Yes | No | Pro-life | Pro-choi | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Northern | Kansas C | Southwes | St. Loui | Southeas | |
| Enthusiastically | 72% | 72% | 72% | 62% | 70% | 76% | 79% | 67% | 77% | 70% | 84% | 62% | 75% | 70% | 83% | 63% | 79% | 71% | 74% | 68% | 74% | 68% | 78% | 71% | 74% | 71% | 74% | 72% | 71% | 73% | 71% | 73% | 77% | 67% | 70% | 71% | 74% | 60% | 76% | 72% | 76% | 65% |
| With Reservations | 25% | 27% | 23% | 32% | 26% | 23% | 20% | 29% | 21% | 27% | 14% | 30% | 23% | 25% | 15% | 35% | 21% | 25% | 23% | 29% | 21% | 28% | 19% | 25% | 23% | 25% | 23% | 25% | 25% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 21% | 28% | 26% | 26% | 23% | 38% | 19% | 25% | 20% | 35% |
| Not Sure | 3% | 1% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Who Are Not Undecided | 100% | 48% | 52% | 22% | 26% | 30% | 22% | 48% | 52% | 83% | 11% | 26% | 74% | 39% | 32% | 28% | 9% | 87% | 41% | 40% | 16% | 52% | 44% | 43% | 52% | 38% | 52% | 42% | 51% | 46% | 50% | 23% | 35% | 42% | 37% | 40% | 23% | 15% | 20% | 18% | 38% | 8% |
| 5 | Missouri will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for US Senate were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Todd Akin? Democrat Claire McCaskill? Or Libertarian Jonathan Dine? |
| 589 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Presidential Vot | Governor Vote | Senate Vote | Evangelical | Abortion | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Romney ( | Obama (D | Spence ( | Nixon (D | Akin (R) | McCaskil | Yes | No | Pro-life | Pro-choi | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Northern | Kansas C | Southwes | St. Loui | Southeas | |
| Todd Akin (R) | 36% | 35% | 37% | 27% | 36% | 38% | 43% | 31% | 40% | 40% | 6% | 24% | 40% | 66% | 4% | 31% | 74% | 31% | 67% | 19% | 8% | 70% | 0% | 79% | 8% | 100% | 0% | 52% | 24% | 58% | 15% | 40% | 28% | 41% | 29% | 42% | 38% | 45% | 34% | 39% | 33% | 33% |
| Claire McCaskill (D) | 51% | 54% | 49% | 56% | 53% | 52% | 43% | 54% | 48% | 47% | 89% | 61% | 47% | 15% | 93% | 55% | 17% | 55% | 20% | 67% | 86% | 13% | 97% | 9% | 86% | 0% | 100% | 39% | 61% | 30% | 72% | 45% | 58% | 49% | 59% | 46% | 48% | 41% | 55% | 49% | 55% | 51% |
| Jonathan Dine (L) | 8% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 2% | 6% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 12% | 1% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 6% |
| Undecided | 5% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 9% | 4% | 7% | 1% | 8% | 0% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 26% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 83% | 10% | 28% | 72% | 38% | 31% | 29% | 9% | 88% | 40% | 41% | 15% | 50% | 43% | 39% | 48% | 36% | 51% | 42% | 50% | 47% | 48% | 24% | 35% | 41% | 39% | 39% | 22% | 15% | 20% | 18% | 37% | 9% |
| 6 | Do you cast this vote enthusiastically? Or with reservations? |
| 557 Who Are Not Undecided | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | Presidential Vot | Governor Vote | Senate Vote | Evangelical | Abortion | Education | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Romney ( | Obama (D | Spence ( | Nixon (D | Akin (R) | McCaskil | Yes | No | Pro-life | Pro-choi | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Northern | Kansas C | Southwes | St. Loui | Southeas | |
| Enthusiastically | 70% | 68% | 72% | 75% | 64% | 67% | 75% | 69% | 70% | 67% | 89% | 67% | 71% | 59% | 88% | 65% | 71% | 69% | 66% | 66% | 86% | 54% | 89% | 58% | 81% | 59% | 82% | 69% | 70% | 66% | 76% | 65% | 75% | 68% | 70% | 72% | 65% | 67% | 71% | 66% | 72% | 74% |
| With Reservations | 30% | 31% | 28% | 24% | 35% | 32% | 25% | 30% | 29% | 32% | 10% | 32% | 29% | 41% | 11% | 35% | 29% | 30% | 34% | 33% | 14% | 46% | 11% | 42% | 18% | 41% | 17% | 31% | 29% | 34% | 24% | 34% | 24% | 32% | 29% | 28% | 35% | 33% | 29% | 33% | 28% | 26% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Who Are Not Undecided | 100% | 48% | 52% | 24% | 26% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 83% | 11% | 27% | 73% | 38% | 33% | 28% | 10% | 87% | 40% | 40% | 16% | 50% | 45% | 40% | 49% | 38% | 54% | 43% | 50% | 48% | 48% | 23% | 35% | 42% | 38% | 40% | 22% | 16% | 20% | 18% | 38% | 8% |