Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14503
 
California Proposition 8 Too Close To Call: In a vote today, 10/06/08, on California's Proposition 8 Ballot Initiative, which would change California's constitution to eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry, approximately half the state supports the measure, half the state opposes the measure, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. The exact findings are: 'Yes' (to change the law) 47%, 'No' (to leave the law alone) 42%. But: polling on ballot measures in general is an inexact science, and polling on homosexuality in general is a tricky business. So, not too much should be made of the 5 points that separates 'Yes' and 'No' today. Support for 8 may be higher or lower than any opinion pollster is able to measure. In a SurveyUSA poll released eleven days ago, 5 points again separated "Yes" from "No," but in the other direction, with the "No" vote coming out nominally ahead.

What is clear today: Those in the Inland Empire and the Central Valley continue to want the law changed. Those in the Bay Area continue to want the law left alone. Those in greater LA remain split. The youngest voters, who are the hardest to poll and who are the most unpredictable voters, support the measure, after opposing it eleven days ago. Seniors support the measure. Minority groups view the measure differently: blacks support, Hispanics split, Asians and others oppose. Support is strong among conservatives, Republicans, and those who attend religious services regularly. Opposition is strong among liberals, Democrats, and those who never attend religious services.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 California adults 10/4/08 and 10/5/08. Of the adults, 879 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 670 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. There is a challenge in any ballot measure polling as to how much of the ballot language to read to respondents. What is read to respondents influences how the respond. Here is exactly what SurveyUSA read to respondents on this question: "Proposition 8 would eliminate the right of Same-Sex Couples to marry. It changes the California Constitution so that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid in California. On Proposition 8, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?"
 
Proposition 8 would eliminate the right of Same-Sex Couples to marry. It changes the California Constitution so that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid in California. On Proposition 8, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
670 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionIntellectual?Traveled AbroadSpeak Another LaUSA Super PowerOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo< $50K> $50KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Yes47%55%41%53%44%42%55%47%47%48%57%45%47%52%44%50%71%32%43%76%46%16%42%54%67%40%33%79%31%47%43%47%49%46%49%49%43%62%38%51%46%63%44%50%37%
No42%35%49%39%44%49%33%42%42%42%28%46%44%34%45%36%22%55%48%14%43%78%46%37%25%45%58%14%57%44%40%44%32%44%41%42%45%32%50%38%44%27%45%42%52%
Not Certain10%10%11%8%12%9%12%10%10%10%15%10%9%14%11%14%7%13%9%10%12%6%11%9%8%15%9%7%12%8%17%9%18%11%10%9%12%7%12%11%10%10%11%9%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%23%34%24%19%57%43%52%10%38%62%7%19%12%34%47%17%27%40%21%56%44%37%29%34%34%63%69%23%86%13%49%51%84%11%35%62%23%77%21%39%18%22%