| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14905 |
|
Just As It Did in So Many 2008 Contests, Black Turnout Will Decide Winner of LA4 House Race.
In the December 4 stand-alone election to fill the open US House seat in Louisiana's 4th Congressional District, Republican John Fleming may or may not have a slight edge on Democrat Paul Carmouche, depending on how many of the district's African Americans vote, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill. Fleming leads 2:1 among white voters. Carmouche leads 9:1 among black voters. If blacks make up 27% of likely voters on December 4, as reported in the tables and charts that follow, the Republican leads 47% to 45%. For every percentage point that black turn-out is higher than 27%, the contest tips one point more to the Democrat. For every percentage point that black turn-out is lower than 27%, the contest tips one point more to the Republican. For example:
If black turn-out is 24%, it's Fleming 48%, Carmouche 43%. Turn-out in a stand-alone special election, where there are not other contests on the ballot to draw voters to the polls, is uniquely difficult to forecast. Fleming has a Plus 13 Favorability. Carmouche has a Plus 16 Favorability. Barack Obama has Net Zero Favorability. 44% approve of the job President Bush is doing. 14% approve of the job the US Congress is doing. |
| Filtering: 900 registered voters were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/17/08 and 11/18/08, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 648 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the December 4 election. |
| 1 | If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican John Fleming? Democrat Paul Carmouche? |
| 648 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Fleming | Opinion Of Carmouche | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | Fleming | Carmouch | |
| John Fleming (R) | 47% | 48% | 46% | 44% | 50% | 42% | 52% | 48% | 46% | 63% | 9% | ** | ** | 82% | 17% | 45% | 73% | 24% | 8% | 9% | 83% | 50% | 91% | 3% | 24% | 11% | 87% | 66% | 79% | 17% | 30% | 53% | 41% | ** | 32% | 40% | 83% | ** | ** | 79% | 81% | 7% | 100% | 0% |
| Paul Carmouche (D) | 45% | 41% | 47% | 45% | 41% | 50% | 41% | 43% | 47% | 28% | 85% | ** | ** | 11% | 76% | 37% | 19% | 68% | 80% | 84% | 11% | 33% | 6% | 89% | 57% | 87% | 4% | 18% | 13% | 75% | 65% | 39% | 51% | ** | 62% | 49% | 9% | ** | ** | 8% | 12% | 87% | 0% | 100% |
| Gerald Bowen, Jr. (I) | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** | ** | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** | 1% | 5% | 0% | ** | ** | 3% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Chester "Catfish" Kelley (I) | 3% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | ** | ** | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | ** | 0% | 0% | 6% | ** | ** | 6% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| Undecided | 4% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | ** | ** | 3% | 3% | 13% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 10% | 0% | 2% | 12% | 0% | 1% | 12% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 4% | ** | 4% | 6% | 2% | ** | ** | 3% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 45% | 55% | 19% | 30% | 31% | 21% | 48% | 52% | 68% | 27% | 1% | 5% | 41% | 46% | 11% | 52% | 30% | 12% | 42% | 42% | 14% | 44% | 31% | 20% | 44% | 28% | 23% | 44% | 48% | 14% | 74% | 59% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 52% | 42% | 47% | 45% |
| 2 | Is your opinion of Barack Obama ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Barack Obama? |
| 648 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Fleming | Opinion Of Carmouche | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | Fleming | Carmouch | |
| Favorable | 42% | 39% | 44% | 50% | 40% | 42% | 38% | 44% | 40% | 21% | 92% | ** | ** | 9% | 71% | 39% | 16% | 62% | 87% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 12% | 79% | 45% | 71% | 13% | 23% | 7% | 74% | 70% | 34% | 49% | ** | 53% | 48% | 10% | ** | ** | 9% | 6% | 86% | 8% | 78% |
| Unfavorable | 42% | 46% | 39% | 37% | 45% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 57% | 6% | ** | ** | 72% | 17% | 39% | 67% | 18% | 10% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 72% | 15% | 24% | 17% | 75% | 52% | 75% | 13% | 21% | 49% | 34% | ** | 37% | 34% | 75% | ** | ** | 79% | 75% | 6% | 74% | 10% |
| Neutral | 14% | 13% | 15% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 12% | 16% | 19% | 2% | ** | ** | 16% | 11% | 20% | 14% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 13% | 6% | 29% | 10% | 10% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 8% | 15% | 16% | ** | 10% | 18% | 13% | ** | ** | 5% | 16% | 8% | 15% | 10% |
| No Opinion | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | ** | ** | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | ** | 0% | 0% | 3% | ** | ** | 7% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 45% | 55% | 19% | 30% | 31% | 21% | 48% | 52% | 68% | 27% | 1% | 5% | 41% | 46% | 11% | 52% | 30% | 12% | 42% | 42% | 14% | 44% | 31% | 20% | 44% | 28% | 23% | 44% | 48% | 14% | 74% | 59% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 52% | 42% | 47% | 45% |
| 3 | If your opinion of John Fleming is... |
| 648 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Fleming | Opinion Of Carmouche | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | Fleming | Carmouch | |
| Favorable | 44% | 49% | 41% | 44% | 43% | 40% | 53% | 44% | 45% | 58% | 14% | ** | ** | 72% | 21% | 42% | 68% | 21% | 12% | 12% | 77% | 41% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 17% | 79% | 58% | 75% | 18% | 32% | 50% | 39% | ** | 34% | 38% | 76% | ** | ** | 68% | 75% | 11% | 86% | 6% |
| Unfavorable | 31% | 29% | 32% | 32% | 26% | 36% | 28% | 28% | 33% | 22% | 52% | ** | ** | 11% | 48% | 26% | 14% | 45% | 62% | 58% | 11% | 13% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 57% | 11% | 9% | 10% | 52% | 51% | 27% | 35% | ** | 40% | 43% | 10% | ** | ** | 9% | 10% | 57% | 2% | 61% |
| Neutral | 20% | 20% | 20% | 18% | 24% | 21% | 14% | 22% | 18% | 17% | 24% | ** | ** | 15% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 28% | 18% | 21% | 11% | 41% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 22% | 9% | 29% | 13% | 25% | 13% | 20% | 21% | ** | 20% | 16% | 9% | ** | ** | 23% | 13% | 25% | 10% | 25% |
| No Opinion | 5% | 2% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 10% | ** | ** | 2% | 8% | 9% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 1% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 4% | ** | 7% | 2% | 5% | ** | ** | 0% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 45% | 55% | 19% | 30% | 31% | 21% | 48% | 52% | 68% | 27% | 1% | 5% | 41% | 46% | 11% | 52% | 30% | 12% | 42% | 42% | 14% | 44% | 31% | 20% | 44% | 28% | 23% | 44% | 48% | 14% | 74% | 59% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 52% | 42% | 47% | 45% |
| 4 | If your opinion of Paul Carmouche is... |
| 648 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Fleming | Opinion Of Carmouche | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | Fleming | Carmouch | |
| Favorable | 44% | 43% | 44% | 42% | 39% | 48% | 45% | 41% | 47% | 31% | 75% | ** | ** | 17% | 70% | 35% | 24% | 61% | 71% | 75% | 18% | 33% | 17% | 82% | 48% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 19% | 69% | 68% | 39% | 50% | ** | 57% | 48% | 16% | ** | ** | 13% | 17% | 77% | 10% | 86% |
| Unfavorable | 28% | 30% | 26% | 24% | 30% | 28% | 27% | 27% | 28% | 36% | 10% | ** | ** | 48% | 13% | 20% | 42% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 50% | 19% | 49% | 10% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 45% | 13% | 16% | 32% | 24% | ** | 27% | 17% | 50% | ** | ** | 36% | 47% | 7% | 51% | 3% |
| Neutral | 23% | 24% | 23% | 27% | 25% | 19% | 23% | 26% | 21% | 28% | 11% | ** | ** | 30% | 14% | 35% | 29% | 21% | 11% | 13% | 29% | 37% | 30% | 7% | 34% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 31% | 14% | 11% | 26% | 23% | ** | 12% | 29% | 27% | ** | ** | 48% | 29% | 13% | 33% | 9% |
| No Opinion | 5% | 3% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 4% | ** | ** | 6% | 3% | 9% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | ** | 4% | 5% | 8% | ** | ** | 4% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 45% | 55% | 19% | 30% | 31% | 21% | 48% | 52% | 68% | 27% | 1% | 5% | 41% | 46% | 11% | 52% | 30% | 12% | 42% | 42% | 14% | 44% | 31% | 20% | 44% | 28% | 23% | 44% | 48% | 14% | 74% | 59% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 52% | 42% | 47% | 45% |
| 5 | Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President? |
| 648 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Fleming | Opinion Of Carmouche | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | Fleming | Carmouch | |
| Approve | 44% | 49% | 41% | 41% | 45% | 43% | 48% | 43% | 45% | 59% | 9% | ** | ** | 74% | 20% | 41% | 68% | 23% | 11% | 7% | 79% | 49% | 74% | 14% | 29% | 19% | 71% | 58% | 100% | 0% | 35% | 48% | 36% | ** | 35% | 42% | 83% | ** | ** | 63% | 76% | 9% | 75% | 13% |
| Disapprove | 48% | 44% | 52% | 55% | 44% | 51% | 45% | 48% | 49% | 34% | 84% | ** | ** | 19% | 73% | 53% | 24% | 72% | 82% | 86% | 15% | 41% | 19% | 82% | 60% | 77% | 23% | 29% | 0% | 100% | 61% | 46% | 57% | ** | 58% | 56% | 14% | ** | ** | 24% | 18% | 86% | 18% | 81% |
| Not Sure | 7% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 12% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 7% | ** | ** | 7% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 11% | 5% | 6% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 6% | 7% | ** | 7% | 2% | 3% | ** | ** | 13% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 6% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 45% | 55% | 19% | 30% | 31% | 21% | 48% | 52% | 68% | 27% | 1% | 5% | 41% | 46% | 11% | 52% | 30% | 12% | 42% | 42% | 14% | 44% | 31% | 20% | 44% | 28% | 23% | 44% | 48% | 14% | 74% | 59% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 52% | 42% | 47% | 45% |
| 6 | Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the job the United States Congress is doing? |
| 648 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Fleming | Opinion Of Carmouche | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | Fleming | Carmouch | |
| Approve | 14% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 16% | ** | ** | 7% | 19% | 10% | 7% | 19% | 30% | 23% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 23% | 9% | 21% | 8% | 6% | 11% | 17% | 100% | 0% | 14% | ** | 9% | 15% | 4% | ** | ** | 3% | 8% | 19% | 9% | 20% |
| Disapprove | 74% | 75% | 73% | 70% | 71% | 76% | 77% | 71% | 77% | 78% | 66% | ** | ** | 85% | 64% | 78% | 85% | 66% | 53% | 60% | 86% | 80% | 83% | 65% | 73% | 65% | 84% | 82% | 81% | 70% | 0% | 100% | 73% | ** | 66% | 73% | 87% | ** | ** | 88% | 85% | 62% | 84% | 64% |
| Not Sure | 13% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 15% | 10% | 9% | 18% | ** | ** | 8% | 17% | 13% | 8% | 15% | 18% | 17% | 8% | 12% | 7% | 12% | 18% | 14% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 13% | ** | 25% | 12% | 9% | ** | ** | 9% | 7% | 19% | 7% | 17% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 45% | 55% | 19% | 30% | 31% | 21% | 48% | 52% | 68% | 27% | 1% | 5% | 41% | 46% | 11% | 52% | 30% | 12% | 42% | 42% | 14% | 44% | 31% | 20% | 44% | 28% | 23% | 44% | 48% | 14% | 74% | 59% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 52% | 42% | 47% | 45% |
| 7 | Which one issue should congress focus on ahead of all others? (choices rotated) The economy? The environment? Health care? Iraq? Terrorism? The price of gasoline? Education? Immigration? Or some other issue? |
| 630 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Fleming | Opinion Of Carmouche | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | Fleming | Carmouch | |
| Economy | 59% | 57% | 62% | 57% | 55% | 60% | 69% | 55% | 63% | 58% | 67% | ** | ** | 54% | 66% | 56% | 54% | 65% | 69% | 69% | 47% | 67% | 52% | 70% | 64% | 68% | 52% | 57% | 48% | 71% | 65% | 59% | 100% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 51% | 70% | 52% | 69% |
| Environment | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** | ** | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Health Care | 6% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 8% | ** | ** | 4% | 9% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 0% | ** | 100% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 9% |
| Iraq | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 5% | ** | ** | 5% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 0% | ** | 0% | 100% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 6% |
| Terrorism | 11% | 11% | 11% | 7% | 10% | 14% | 11% | 9% | 13% | 15% | 2% | ** | ** | 18% | 4% | 12% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 19% | 10% | 19% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 20% | 12% | 20% | 3% | 4% | 13% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 100% | ** | ** | 0% | 18% | 3% | 19% | 2% |
| Gasoline | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 4% | ** | ** | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Education | 4% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 6% | ** | ** | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 10% | 4% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 5% |
| Immigration | 6% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 2% | ** | ** | 9% | 3% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 12% | 2% | 9% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 8% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 8% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 100% | 10% | 2% | 11% | 1% |
| Other | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | ** | ** | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4% | ** | ** | 1% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 46% | 54% | 19% | 30% | 31% | 21% | 49% | 51% | 68% | 27% | 1% | 5% | 41% | 46% | 11% | 52% | 30% | 11% | 42% | 42% | 14% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 43% | 28% | 24% | 45% | 48% | 13% | 74% | 59% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 52% | 42% | 47% | 44% |
| 8 | Which party do you think is best equipped to handle the economy? (choices rotated) The Republicans? Or The Democrats? |
| 624 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Opinion Of Obama | Opinion Of Fleming | Opinion Of Carmouche | Bush Overall App | Job Performance | Top Issue For Congress | Better Equipped | Vote For US Hous | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Economy | Environm | Health C | Iraq | Terroris | Gasoline | Educatio | Immigrat | Republic | Democrat | Fleming | Carmouch | |
| Republicans | 52% | 55% | 49% | 46% | 54% | 49% | 58% | 51% | 52% | 69% | 11% | ** | ** | 87% | 20% | 53% | 81% | 23% | 9% | 8% | 91% | 60% | 86% | 17% | 34% | 21% | 87% | 64% | 87% | 19% | 33% | 59% | 44% | ** | 38% | 44% | 83% | ** | ** | 85% | 100% | 0% | 88% | 14% |
| Democrats | 42% | 40% | 44% | 46% | 40% | 45% | 37% | 42% | 42% | 24% | 87% | ** | ** | 9% | 75% | 29% | 14% | 69% | 85% | 87% | 6% | 24% | 10% | 80% | 53% | 76% | 11% | 24% | 8% | 76% | 61% | 35% | 49% | ** | 53% | 52% | 11% | ** | ** | 12% | 0% | 100% | 6% | 83% |
| Not Sure | 6% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 2% | ** | ** | 4% | 5% | 18% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 16% | 4% | 3% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 13% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | ** | 9% | 4% | 6% | ** | ** | 3% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 45% | 55% | 19% | 30% | 31% | 21% | 48% | 52% | 68% | 27% | 1% | 5% | 42% | 46% | 11% | 53% | 30% | 11% | 42% | 43% | 14% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 43% | 28% | 24% | 45% | 48% | 13% | 74% | 59% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 52% | 42% | 48% | 44% |