| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20341 |
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5 Months to Seattle Mayor Primary, Sims and McGinn Tie If Sims Jumps In; Otherwise McGinn is Momentary Frontrunner Atop Crowded Field:
If former King County Executive Ron Sims enters the primary for Mayor of Seattle, as some believe he will, Sims and incumbent Mayor Mike McGinn today tie, each at 15%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV. In a 9-person field, Tim Burgess would finish 3rd, at 10%, followed by Ed Murray at 9% and Peter Steinbrueck at 7%.
* McGinn's support is male, Republican, middle-income and less educated. If Sims does not enter the primary, McGinn would get the largest share of Sims's support, SurveyUSA finds: Without Sims, McGinn would lead Burgess 19% to 11%, with Murray and Steinbrueck tied for 3rd place, each at 10%. The top 2 primary finishers advance to a 11/05/13 runoff. There is some small advantage to a candidate for mayor supporting the construction of a basketball arena for an NBA team. 33% of registered voters say that a candidate who supports an arena is more likley to get their vote, compared to 28% who say an arena-backer is less likely to get their vote. Turned around the other way, further confirmation: 36% say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who opposes an arena, compared to 25% who say they are more likely to vote for an arena-opposer.
* 37% in the city approve of the job McGinn is doing as Mayor; 43% disapprove. Net approval = Minus 6. Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 city of Seattle adults 03/04/13 through 03/07/13. Of the adults, 647 were registered to vote and were asked the battery of questions. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. |
| 1 | Seattle will hold a primary election for Mayor in August. If you were filling out your primary ballot today, and these were the only candidates, who would you vote for? Tim Burgess? Bruce Harrell? David Ishii? Kate Martin? Mike McGinn? Ed Murray? Ron Sims? Charlie Staadecker? Peter Steinbrueck? Or are you undecided? |
| 647 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | |||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Burgess | 10% | 11% | 8% | 10% | 14% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 5% | 9% | 9% | ** | 6% | 10% | 9% | 15% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 16% | 8% | 8% |
| Harrell | 5% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 22% | ** | 1% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 5% |
| Ishii | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Martin | 3% | 0% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | ** | 0% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 2% |
| McGinn | 15% | 19% | 11% | 18% | 12% | 17% | 11% | 16% | 15% | 15% | 0% | ** | 16% | 20% | 14% | 34% | 12% | 15% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 12% | 21% | 15% |
| Murray | 9% | 11% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 10% | ** | 15% | 11% | 8% | 2% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 8% | 13% | 1% | 6% | 12% | 12% | 5% | 10% |
| Sims | 15% | 14% | 15% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 17% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 19% | ** | 17% | 16% | 15% | 3% | 19% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 20% | 14% | 18% | 14% | 14% | 17% | 14% |
| Staadecker | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | ** | 0% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| Steinbrueck | 7% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 12% | 18% | 3% | 14% | 8% | 1% | ** | 7% | 2% | 9% | 10% | 6% | 9% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 12% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 10% | 5% |
| Undecided | 34% | 27% | 41% | 35% | 37% | 30% | 32% | 36% | 31% | 34% | 37% | ** | 38% | 33% | 34% | 30% | 30% | 43% | 41% | 33% | 31% | 33% | 35% | 33% | 30% | 32% | 37% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 36% | 27% | 24% | 13% | 63% | 37% | 73% | 7% | 5% | 15% | 26% | 74% | 12% | 58% | 30% | 13% | 39% | 45% | 8% | 28% | 64% | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| 2 | If Ron Sims does not run, which of the other candidates would you vote for? Tim Burgess? Bruce Harrell? David Ishii? Kate Martin? Mike McGinn? Ed Murray? Charlie Staadecker? Peter Steinbrueck? Or are you undecided? |
| 96 Who Would Vote For Sims | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | |||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 10.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Burgess | 9% | 3% | 15% | 15% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 11% | 6% | 11% | 0% | ** | 8% | 17% | 6% | ** | 9% | 9% | 19% | 5% | 10% | 0% | 6% | 12% | 0% | 3% | 19% |
| Harrell | 8% | 5% | 10% | 0% | 15% | 3% | 17% | 7% | 8% | 2% | 25% | ** | 22% | 0% | 11% | ** | 11% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 12% | 0% | 12% | 6% | 21% | 0% | 1% |
| Ishii | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | ** | 0% | 0% | 1% | ** | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| Martin | 6% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 38% | ** | 0% | 13% | 4% | ** | 5% | 11% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 9% | 1% | 13% | 4% |
| McGinn | 26% | 22% | 30% | 47% | 11% | 18% | 24% | 30% | 20% | 27% | 27% | ** | 24% | 44% | 19% | ** | 26% | 26% | 33% | 38% | 19% | 60% | 30% | 19% | 37% | 28% | 20% |
| Murray | 8% | 13% | 4% | 0% | 16% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 0% | ** | 0% | 6% | 9% | ** | 10% | 3% | 0% | 10% | 10% | 0% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 7% |
| Staadecker | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Steinbrueck | 18% | 25% | 11% | 20% | 27% | 11% | 9% | 23% | 10% | 25% | 0% | ** | 0% | 6% | 23% | ** | 21% | 10% | 0% | 5% | 26% | 4% | 6% | 27% | 4% | 13% | 30% |
| Undecided | 24% | 26% | 22% | 7% | 21% | 43% | 35% | 14% | 40% | 20% | 10% | ** | 46% | 15% | 27% | ** | 16% | 41% | 40% | 36% | 15% | 33% | 33% | 17% | 29% | 28% | 19% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Who Would Vote For Sims | 100% | 49% | 51% | 32% | 29% | 24% | 15% | 61% | 39% | 72% | 9% | 2% | 17% | 28% | 72% | 3% | 73% | 24% | 9% | 27% | 60% | 8% | 34% | 58% | 23% | 32% | 44% |
| 3 | If a candidate supports building a basketball arena for an NBA team in Seattle, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate? Less likely to vote for that candidate? Or does it make no difference? |
| 647 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | |||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| More Likely | 33% | 33% | 34% | 40% | 39% | 26% | 19% | 39% | 24% | 30% | 44% | ** | 37% | 54% | 26% | 53% | 37% | 19% | 43% | 35% | 31% | 48% | 37% | 30% | 25% | 45% | 33% |
| Less Likely | 28% | 27% | 30% | 19% | 26% | 39% | 40% | 22% | 39% | 33% | 13% | ** | 17% | 15% | 33% | 28% | 23% | 38% | 28% | 30% | 28% | 10% | 28% | 31% | 27% | 31% | 26% |
| No Difference | 36% | 40% | 33% | 41% | 33% | 32% | 39% | 38% | 34% | 37% | 42% | ** | 36% | 29% | 39% | 18% | 38% | 41% | 28% | 33% | 41% | 39% | 32% | 38% | 46% | 24% | 40% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 1% | ** | 9% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 36% | 27% | 24% | 13% | 63% | 37% | 73% | 7% | 5% | 15% | 26% | 74% | 12% | 58% | 30% | 13% | 39% | 45% | 8% | 28% | 64% | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| 4 | If a candidate opposes building a basketball arena for an NBA team in Seattle, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate? Less likely to vote for that candidate? Or does it make no difference? |
| 647 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | |||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| More Likely | 25% | 25% | 25% | 18% | 24% | 34% | 29% | 21% | 32% | 27% | 15% | ** | 21% | 17% | 28% | 30% | 21% | 29% | 23% | 24% | 27% | 24% | 25% | 25% | 28% | 24% | 23% |
| Less Likely | 36% | 40% | 32% | 38% | 42% | 33% | 24% | 40% | 30% | 32% | 54% | ** | 36% | 42% | 34% | 51% | 39% | 25% | 48% | 36% | 34% | 33% | 40% | 35% | 25% | 45% | 39% |
| No Difference | 37% | 34% | 40% | 43% | 31% | 31% | 44% | 38% | 36% | 40% | 29% | ** | 34% | 38% | 36% | 19% | 37% | 44% | 29% | 38% | 38% | 41% | 32% | 38% | 44% | 31% | 37% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | ** | 9% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 36% | 27% | 24% | 13% | 63% | 37% | 73% | 7% | 5% | 15% | 26% | 74% | 12% | 58% | 30% | 13% | 39% | 45% | 8% | 28% | 64% | 25% | 29% | 46% |
 | Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mike McGinn is doing as Mayor of Seattle? |
| 647 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | |||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Approve | 37% | 39% | 35% | 44% | 33% | 37% | 27% | 39% | 34% | 37% | 30% | ** | 37% | 57% | 30% | 40% | 41% | 29% | 37% | 32% | 43% | 42% | 42% | 34% | 49% | 35% | 34% |
| Disapprove | 43% | 46% | 41% | 31% | 51% | 48% | 54% | 39% | 50% | 46% | 38% | ** | 37% | 16% | 53% | 53% | 40% | 45% | 46% | 45% | 40% | 27% | 40% | 47% | 32% | 45% | 47% |
| Not Sure | 19% | 15% | 24% | 25% | 16% | 15% | 18% | 21% | 16% | 17% | 32% | ** | 27% | 26% | 17% | 8% | 18% | 26% | 17% | 23% | 17% | 31% | 17% | 18% | 18% | 20% | 19% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 36% | 27% | 24% | 13% | 63% | 37% | 73% | 7% | 5% | 15% | 26% | 74% | 12% | 58% | 30% | 13% | 39% | 45% | 8% | 28% | 64% | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| 6 | Do you approve or disapprove of the job Pete Holmes is doing as City Attorney? |
| 647 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | |||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Approve | 34% | 40% | 26% | 37% | 34% | 28% | 34% | 36% | 30% | 34% | 23% | ** | 29% | 39% | 32% | 24% | 37% | 32% | 32% | 33% | 37% | 32% | 39% | 32% | 39% | 37% | 30% |
| Disapprove | 18% | 20% | 17% | 17% | 18% | 26% | 11% | 17% | 20% | 18% | 16% | ** | 17% | 16% | 19% | 45% | 14% | 17% | 34% | 20% | 13% | 22% | 25% | 15% | 15% | 21% | 20% |
| Not Sure | 48% | 40% | 56% | 46% | 48% | 46% | 56% | 47% | 50% | 47% | 61% | ** | 55% | 45% | 49% | 31% | 50% | 51% | 33% | 47% | 50% | 45% | 36% | 53% | 46% | 42% | 50% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 36% | 27% | 24% | 13% | 63% | 37% | 73% | 7% | 5% | 15% | 26% | 74% | 12% | 58% | 30% | 13% | 39% | 45% | 8% | 28% | 64% | 25% | 29% | 46% |
 | Do you approve? Or disapprove? of the job the Seattle City Council is doing? |
| 647 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | |||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Approve | 39% | 41% | 37% | 45% | 40% | 29% | 39% | 43% | 33% | 39% | 34% | ** | 38% | 49% | 35% | 31% | 45% | 31% | 36% | 30% | 50% | 49% | 37% | 39% | 41% | 46% | 35% |
| Disapprove | 37% | 42% | 32% | 34% | 36% | 46% | 32% | 35% | 41% | 38% | 30% | ** | 35% | 28% | 40% | 54% | 30% | 44% | 48% | 45% | 26% | 26% | 42% | 37% | 40% | 35% | 37% |
| Not Sure | 24% | 17% | 31% | 21% | 24% | 26% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 23% | 36% | ** | 27% | 23% | 24% | 15% | 25% | 25% | 16% | 25% | 24% | 25% | 21% | 24% | 19% | 20% | 29% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 36% | 27% | 24% | 13% | 63% | 37% | 73% | 7% | 5% | 15% | 26% | 74% | 12% | 58% | 30% | 13% | 39% | 45% | 8% | 28% | 64% | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| 8 | Do you approve? or disapprove? Of the job Ron Sims did as King County Executive? |
| 647 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | |||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Approve | 54% | 56% | 51% | 48% | 55% | 56% | 62% | 51% | 58% | 57% | 55% | ** | 41% | 42% | 58% | 24% | 64% | 45% | 28% | 48% | 68% | 36% | 54% | 56% | 55% | 51% | 54% |
| Disapprove | 19% | 21% | 16% | 15% | 21% | 20% | 20% | 18% | 20% | 18% | 18% | ** | 19% | 5% | 24% | 45% | 10% | 25% | 46% | 18% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 18% | 12% | 23% | 20% |
| Not Sure | 28% | 23% | 33% | 37% | 24% | 24% | 18% | 31% | 22% | 24% | 27% | ** | 39% | 52% | 19% | 30% | 26% | 30% | 26% | 33% | 23% | 49% | 26% | 26% | 33% | 27% | 27% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 36% | 27% | 24% | 13% | 63% | 37% | 73% | 7% | 5% | 15% | 26% | 74% | 12% | 58% | 30% | 13% | 39% | 45% | 8% | 28% | 64% | 25% | 29% | 46% |