| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16604 |
| In New Mexico Governor Contest, Susana Martinez Atop Weh in GOP Primary, Atop Denish in November General Election: In a Republican Primary for New Mexico Governor today, 05/26/10, 6 days until votes are counted, Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez defeats businessman Allen Weh 43% to 33%, according to a KOB-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Among those who say they have already voted, Martinez leads by 17 points; among those who say they will vote on or before 06/01/10, Martinez leads by 9.
Weh polls above 40% only among the youngest GOP Primary voters. Martinez, who was endorsed by Sarah Palin 10 days ago, polls above 40% in 20 different demographic groups, including male and female voters, white and Hispanic voters, voters with a college degree and voters without, voters in Bernalillo County and voters elsewhere in NM. In a November general election match-up against Democratic Lt Governor Diane Denish, Martinez runs ever-so-slightly ahead of Denish today, the only one of the 5 GOP candidates to do so. 5 months out, the hypothetical November pairings look this way:
Martinez 49%, Denish 43%. Much can and should be expected to change between now and 11/02/10. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,200 New Mexico adults 05/23/10 through 5/25/10. Of them, 1,895 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 464 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/01/10 Republican Primary; 1,405 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. Questions about the GOP primary were asked only of likely GOP Primary voters. Questions about the November general election were asked of all NM likely voters. Early primary voting began on 05/04/10. 1 in 5 primary voters have already voted. Incumbent Governor Bill Richardson is term limited. |
| 1 | (candidate names rotated) If the Republican Primary for New Mexico Governor were today, who would you vote for? Janice Arnold-Jones? Pete Domenici Jr.? Susana Martinez? Doug Turner? Or Allen Weh? |
| 464 Likely & Actual GOP Primary Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Most Important Issue | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Native / | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Economy | War On T | Health C | Immigrat | Federal | Other | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Bernalil | Rest of | |
| Arnold-Jones | 3% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 4% | 3% | ** | 1% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 3% | ** | ** | 3% | 1% | ** | 2% | 5% | ** | 3% | 1% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| Domenici Jr. | 8% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | ** | 11% | 9% | 10% | 7% | 8% | ** | ** | 7% | 7% | ** | 8% | 4% | ** | 4% | 5% | 25% | 8% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 9% |
| Martinez | 43% | 41% | 46% | 32% | 41% | 43% | 50% | 39% | 46% | 42% | ** | 49% | 45% | 50% | 42% | 43% | ** | ** | 43% | 49% | ** | 46% | 42% | ** | 41% | 48% | 18% | 45% | 42% | 38% | 46% | 41% | 45% |
| Turner | 8% | 11% | 6% | 15% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 10% | ** | 4% | 9% | 5% | 9% | 8% | ** | ** | 8% | 8% | ** | 8% | 6% | ** | 13% | 10% | 6% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 6% |
| Weh | 33% | 34% | 32% | 44% | 33% | 34% | 28% | 35% | 31% | 34% | ** | 29% | 30% | 33% | 33% | 33% | ** | ** | 35% | 31% | ** | 32% | 37% | ** | 38% | 33% | 20% | 30% | 36% | 37% | 32% | 32% | 34% |
| Undecided | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 5% | ** | 6% | 8% | 1% | 6% | 5% | ** | ** | 4% | 4% | ** | 4% | 7% | ** | 2% | 3% | 24% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 5% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual GOP Primary Voters | 100% | 53% | 47% | 10% | 30% | 34% | 27% | 39% | 61% | 74% | 1% | 18% | 7% | 19% | 81% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 72% | 23% | 4% | 52% | 8% | 5% | 13% | 15% | 5% | 52% | 48% | 33% | 67% | 45% | 55% |
| 2 | If the election for Governor were today, and the only candidates on the ballot were Democrat Diane Denish and Republican Janice Arnold-Jones, who would you vote for? |
| 1405 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Most Important Issue | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Native / | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Economy | War On T | Health C | Immigrat | Federal | Other | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Bernalil | Rest of | |
| Denish (D) | 49% | 45% | 53% | 46% | 48% | 51% | 49% | 48% | 50% | 41% | ** | 62% | 51% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 78% | 38% | 23% | 59% | 83% | 52% | 34% | 62% | 30% | 18% | 72% | 51% | 47% | 53% | 46% | 49% | 49% |
| Arnold-Jones (R) | 35% | 41% | 30% | 41% | 33% | 36% | 34% | 36% | 35% | 44% | ** | 20% | 32% | 59% | 71% | 67% | 11% | 40% | 59% | 27% | 10% | 35% | 47% | 22% | 52% | 63% | 13% | 36% | 36% | 29% | 40% | 36% | 35% |
| Undecided | 16% | 14% | 17% | 13% | 18% | 14% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 15% | ** | 18% | 18% | 28% | 18% | 19% | 11% | 22% | 18% | 14% | 8% | 13% | 19% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 15% | 14% | 18% | 18% | 14% | 15% | 16% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 13% | 29% | 33% | 25% | 43% | 57% | 60% | 1% | 30% | 8% | 18% | 82% | 37% | 50% | 12% | 39% | 40% | 17% | 53% | 6% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 13% | 52% | 48% | 38% | 62% | 41% | 59% |
| 3 | What if the only candidates were Diane Denish and Republican Pete Domenici Jr.? |
| 1405 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Most Important Issue | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Native / | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Economy | War On T | Health C | Immigrat | Federal | Other | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Bernalil | Rest of | |
| Denish (D) | 46% | 43% | 49% | 37% | 46% | 48% | 48% | 44% | 48% | 43% | ** | 53% | 46% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 71% | 43% | 23% | 55% | 83% | 48% | 32% | 61% | 34% | 19% | 68% | 49% | 43% | 48% | 45% | 47% | 46% |
| Domenici Jr. (R) | 40% | 45% | 36% | 50% | 40% | 40% | 36% | 43% | 38% | 44% | ** | 33% | 36% | 69% | 71% | 70% | 19% | 34% | 61% | 34% | 10% | 41% | 50% | 25% | 48% | 65% | 18% | 39% | 42% | 38% | 42% | 37% | 42% |
| Undecided | 14% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 16% | 14% | 14% | 13% | ** | 14% | 18% | 17% | 17% | 16% | 10% | 24% | 17% | 11% | 7% | 11% | 18% | 13% | 19% | 15% | 14% | 12% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 13% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 13% | 29% | 33% | 25% | 43% | 57% | 60% | 1% | 30% | 8% | 18% | 82% | 37% | 50% | 12% | 39% | 40% | 17% | 53% | 6% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 13% | 52% | 48% | 38% | 62% | 41% | 59% |
| 4 | What if it were Diane Denish against Republican Susana Martinez? |
| 1405 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Most Important Issue | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Native / | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Economy | War On T | Health C | Immigrat | Federal | Other | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Bernalil | Rest of | |
| Denish (D) | 43% | 40% | 46% | 42% | 42% | 45% | 42% | 42% | 44% | 38% | ** | 52% | 50% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 70% | 38% | 16% | 53% | 80% | 45% | 27% | 56% | 25% | 14% | 67% | 46% | 39% | 47% | 40% | 44% | 42% |
| Martinez (R) | 49% | 53% | 45% | 52% | 50% | 46% | 49% | 51% | 47% | 54% | ** | 40% | 43% | 83% | 83% | 83% | 23% | 50% | 76% | 40% | 14% | 49% | 61% | 34% | 69% | 79% | 21% | 48% | 51% | 43% | 54% | 48% | 50% |
| Undecided | 8% | 7% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 8% | ** | 8% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 12% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 12% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 12% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 9% | 8% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 13% | 29% | 33% | 25% | 43% | 57% | 60% | 1% | 30% | 8% | 18% | 82% | 37% | 50% | 12% | 39% | 40% | 17% | 53% | 6% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 13% | 52% | 48% | 38% | 62% | 41% | 59% |
| 5 | What if it were Diane Denish against Republican Doug Turner? |
| 1405 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Most Important Issue | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Native / | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Economy | War On T | Health C | Immigrat | Federal | Other | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Bernalil | Rest of | |
| Denish (D) | 50% | 47% | 53% | 45% | 50% | 52% | 50% | 48% | 51% | 42% | ** | 64% | 51% | 13% | 11% | 14% | 79% | 40% | 24% | 60% | 84% | 53% | 36% | 63% | 37% | 16% | 70% | 51% | 48% | 53% | 48% | 49% | 50% |
| Turner (R) | 36% | 41% | 31% | 41% | 36% | 36% | 34% | 38% | 35% | 45% | ** | 21% | 32% | 73% | 72% | 70% | 10% | 37% | 61% | 27% | 8% | 36% | 48% | 22% | 48% | 67% | 15% | 37% | 36% | 30% | 40% | 37% | 35% |
| Undecided | 14% | 12% | 16% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 14% | 14% | 13% | ** | 15% | 17% | 14% | 17% | 16% | 11% | 22% | 15% | 13% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 15% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 12% | 16% | 17% | 12% | 13% | 14% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 13% | 29% | 33% | 25% | 43% | 57% | 60% | 1% | 30% | 8% | 18% | 82% | 37% | 50% | 12% | 39% | 40% | 17% | 53% | 6% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 13% | 52% | 48% | 38% | 62% | 41% | 59% |
| 6 | What if it were Diane Denish against Republican Allen Weh? |
| 1405 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Most Important Issue | College Grad | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Native / | Yes | No | Republic | Democrat | Unaffili | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Economy | War On T | Health C | Immigrat | Federal | Other | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Bernalil | Rest of | |
| Denish (D) | 47% | 44% | 50% | 40% | 46% | 50% | 48% | 44% | 49% | 40% | ** | 59% | 51% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 77% | 36% | 21% | 56% | 83% | 49% | 36% | 61% | 28% | 19% | 70% | 50% | 44% | 51% | 44% | 47% | 47% |
| Weh (R) | 42% | 48% | 37% | 49% | 44% | 39% | 41% | 46% | 40% | 51% | ** | 29% | 32% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 15% | 45% | 70% | 34% | 10% | 42% | 50% | 24% | 62% | 73% | 18% | 41% | 45% | 35% | 48% | 43% | 42% |
| Undecided | 10% | 8% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 9% | ** | 12% | 16% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 19% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 14% | 14% | 10% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 10% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 13% | 29% | 33% | 25% | 43% | 57% | 60% | 1% | 30% | 8% | 18% | 82% | 37% | 50% | 12% | 39% | 40% | 17% | 53% | 6% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 13% | 52% | 48% | 38% | 62% | 41% | 59% |