Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13780
Southeast PA Breaks For Obama, But Women Carry Clinton To Apparent Victory in Pennsylvania: 24 hours until votes are counted in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton appears to fend off a late charge from Barack Obama, and carries the symbolically important popular vote, but not by enough to gain material advantage in pledged delegates, according to SurveyUSA's 5th and final tracking poll in this contest, and the first since the two candidates debated 04/16/08. Clinton finishes at 50%, Obama at 44%. Looking only at SurveyUSA numbers, and ignoring the polls that have been released by 12 competing pollsters in PA, Obama gained ground, counter-intuitively, in a week when he was largely on defense and off-message. Last week, SurveyUSA had Clinton ahead by 14 points. Today, in a poll conducted using the identical methodology, the identical professional announcers, and the identical audio, SurveyUSA has Clinton ahead by 6 points. The research was conducted for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WHP-TV Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre. Here's what has changed: In Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia and most of the state's African American population, the candidates had seesawed in four previous polls, but Obama finishes strongly, ahead by 14 points. Among men, Clinton had led narrowly in 3 of the 4 previous tracking polls, but finishes down 15. Among liberals, Obama began 18 points behind Clinton but finishes 11 points ahead of Clinton. Among those who have not graduated from college, Clinton led by 28 points last week, but by 15 points today. Among voters under age 50, Clinton had led by 8 last week, trails by 8 today. Here's what has not changed: Among women, Clinton in 5 polls has led by 30, 28, 28, 22, and 23 points. Among voters age 50+, Clinton in 5 polls has led by 26, 22, 24, 20, and 20 points.
Filtering / Confounding variables: 1,800 state of Pennsylvania adults were interviewed 04/18/08 through 04/20/08. The field period coincided with the Jewish observance of Passover. SurveyUSA stopped interviewing at 6 pm on Saturday night 04/19/08 and 6 pm on Sunday night 04/20/08. Normally SurveyUSA would have continued calling later on both nights, as SurveyUSA did in the 4 previous PA tracking polls. As always, Sunday interviewing did not begin until most potential respondents would have had time to return home from church; this is standard procedure for all SurveyUSA Sunday interviewing. 100% of interviews were conducted after ABC News debate on 04/16/08. Of the 1,800 adults interviewed for this survey, 1,594 were registered to vote. Of them, 710 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the presidential primary. The Pennsylvania Primary is "closed." Only registered Democrats are allowed to vote. There is no early voting. Pennsylvania's 158 Democratic Convention delegates are awarded proportionally. The state has 19 Congressional Districts.
If the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for...(names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? Or some other Democrat?
710 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceIdeologyAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentCollege GradRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackConservaModerateLiberalRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigratYesNoNorthwesSouthwesWest CenSouth CeNortheasSoutheas
Composition of Likely Voters100%45%55%21%29%28%21%50%50%43%13%44%81%14%13%40%25%42%31%27%31%65%13%86%46%3%15%19%3%4%5%3%44%56%4%24%7%10%11%43%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.