Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13302
CA Conservatives Race to Romney, But Is That Enough To Leapfrog McCain on Primary Eve? 24 hours till votes are counted in the California Republican Primary, Mitt Romney has pulled close enough to John McCain that the contest should best be characterized as too-close-to-call, according to SurveyUSA's 12th pre-primary tracking poll. Among all likely Republican Primary voters, it's McCain 39%, Romney 36%, others in single digits. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 1 week ago, conducted before Rudolph Giuliani withdrew from the contest, McCain is up 2, Romney is up 11. McCain had led by 12, now by 3, within the survey's 4.4 percent margin of sampling error. Among Conservatives, Romney now leads by 10. Among Moderates, McCain leads by 16. Romney has tied McCain among men. McCain leads among women, as he has for all of January. McCain leads by 21 in greater San Francisco. Romney leads by 6 in the Inland Empire. The two are effectively tied in Greater Los Angeles and in the Central Valley. Among Pro-Life voters, Romney has a slight edge. Among Pro-Choice voters, McCain leads by 15. Romney has leapfrogged McCain among gun owners. McCain maintains a double-digit advantage among those who do not own a gun.
Filtering: 2,000 state of CA adults were interviewed 02/02/08 and 02/03/08. Interviews completed before and after, but not during, the Super Bowl on 02/03/08. Of the adults, 1,744 were registered to vote. Of them, 517 had already voted or were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote at the precinct on 02/05/08. Among those who have already voted, McCain leads by 5. Research conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno. California is a complex, multi-cultural, geographically diverse state. SurveyUSA will continue to gather data tonight Monday, 02/04/08, and will endeavor to update these results if there is further, unanticipated late movement.
If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for ...(names rotated) Mike Huckabee? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Ron Paul? Or some other Republican?
517 Likely & Actual VotersAllAlready VotedGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceTop Issue For Next PresidentParty AffiliationIdeology2004 VoteAbortionGlobal WarmingStem Cell ResearLabor UnionSame Sex MarriagGun OwnershipMilitary DraftWho Is Winning WBush in HistoryPassport CurrentRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsActual VLikely VMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigratRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalBushKerryPro-lifePro-choiRealMade-upForAgainstYesNoSupportOpposeYesNoNeedNo NeedUnited STerrorisOne Of AAn AveraOne Of TYesNoCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%35%65%57%43%20%32%26%22%52%48%68%2%17%13%32%1%6%12%14%2%3%27%89%6%5%56%36%5%83%7%54%43%55%38%62%31%26%73%22%73%48%49%26%71%75%16%22%54%22%59%38%25%36%22%17%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.