| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14507 |
| Pennsylvania Whites Switch Horses, and Suddenly Obama is 15 Furlongs Ahead: In an election for President of the United States in Pennsylvania today, 10/07/08, four weeks to the vote, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 55% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WNEP-TV Scranton, WHTM-TV Harrisburg, and WJAC-TV Johnstown. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released twelve days ago, Obama is up 5 points; McCain is down 4.
Among white voters, who make-up 87% of PA's electorate, Obama had trailed by 3, now leads by 4 -- a 7-point swing to the Democrat, which, when combined with Obama's now 24:1 advantage among black voters, puts Obama in prime position to capture the 21 Keystone Electoral Votes as the two candidates head for home. Obama today leads among PA men and women, young and old, rich and poor, more educated and less educated. McCain leads among Republicans, conservatives, pro-life voters, and gun owners. 21% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 16% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain. Independents break 2:1 for Obama. Obama leads 2:1 in the Philadelphia area, leads by 10 points in the Scranton area, and nominally in the Pittsburgh area. McCain leads by double digits in Harrisburg and ties Obama in Johnstown. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Pennsylvania adults 10/5/08 and 10/6/08. Of the adults, 809 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 653 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/08 general election. Pennsylvania has 21 Electoral College votes. John Kerry carried the state by 2½ points in 2004; Al Gore carried the state by 4 points in 2000. |
 | If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates? |
| 653 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Intellectual? | Traveled Abroad | Speak Another La | USA Super Power | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Northwes | Southwes | West Cen | South Ce | Northeas | Southeas | |
| McCain (R) | 40% | 43% | 38% | 26% | 46% | 42% | 43% | 38% | 43% | 38% | 42% | 42% | 45% | 4% | ** | ** | 75% | 16% | 29% | 79% | 34% | 10% | 42% | 40% | 48% | 34% | 35% | 60% | 25% | 40% | 46% | 44% | 33% | 37% | 42% | 46% | 18% | 53% | 32% | 35% | 44% | ** | 48% | 47% | 53% | 40% | 31% |
| Obama (D) | 55% | 52% | 57% | 71% | 50% | 51% | 51% | 58% | 51% | 58% | 51% | 52% | 49% | 96% | ** | ** | 21% | 80% | 62% | 19% | 60% | 86% | 55% | 54% | 46% | 62% | 61% | 36% | 69% | 56% | 49% | 51% | 62% | 58% | 53% | 50% | 76% | 41% | 64% | 60% | 51% | ** | 51% | 48% | 39% | 50% | 65% |
| Other | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 0% | ** | ** | 2% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | ** | 1% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 2% |
| Undecided | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 0% | ** | ** | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | ** | 1% | 0% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 21% | 32% | 25% | 22% | 53% | 47% | 47% | 12% | 41% | 87% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 39% | 50% | 9% | 29% | 36% | 15% | 44% | 56% | 46% | 30% | 24% | 45% | 52% | 74% | 21% | 73% | 27% | 27% | 73% | 80% | 16% | 40% | 58% | 43% | 57% | 4% | 22% | 7% | 14% | 12% | 41% |