Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14555
Blue Mexico: In an election for President of the United States in New Mexico today, 10/14/08, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 52% to 45%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KOB-TV in Albuquerque. Compared to identical SurveyUSA polls released two and four weeks ago, little has changed; Obama has consistently taken 52% of the vote; McCain has taken 44%, 44%, and now 45%.

While overall numbers remain steady, there is some offsetting movement along age lines, with some movement toward McCain among the youngest voters, and offsetting movement toward Obama among older voters.

Obama continues to need the support of Hispanic Americans and Native Americans to win the state. McCain leads by 13 points among New Mexico whites; Obama leads by 45 points among Hispanics and by 29 points among Natives. If Hispanic turnout is overstated in this model, so is Obama's lead. If Hispanic turnout is understated in this model, so is Obama's lead.

13% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 16% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; independents are split.

Absentee voting began in New Mexico six days ago. Among the 10% of New Mexico voters who say they have already voted, Obama leads by 23 points. Among likely voters, Obama leads by 6.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 725 New Mexico adults 10/12/08 and 10/13/08. Of them, 661 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 568 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election or to already have cast their ballots. New Mexico has 5 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried New Mexico by 5,988 votes in 2004; Al Gore carried New Mexico by 366 votes in 2000.
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?
568 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAlready Voted?College GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionTop Issue For Next PresidentIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicNative AAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalActual VLikely VYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat< $50K> $50KBernalilRest of
McCain (R)45%46%43%44%50%38%47%47%42%48%46%41%55%**26%****84%16%46%82%36%11%37%46%45%45%51%43%37%66%27%41%**18%34%96%******34%53%44%45%
Obama (D)52%50%54%52%49%58%49%50%54%49%50%56%42%**71%****13%81%49%16%60%88%60%51%53%51%47%55%58%31%70%57%**76%64%3%******62%45%53%51%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%21%31%27%22%51%49%44%11%45%61%1%31%5%3%37%50%13%30%37%14%10%90%50%50%49%26%25%46%52%57%4%7%8%9%3%4%4%40%60%38%62%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.