Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26414
 
4 Months Until Washington State Ballots Counted, Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray 18 Points Atop GOP Challenger Tiffany Smiley:

In an election today for United States Senator from Washington State, incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray defeats Republican Tiffany Smiley 51% to 33%, according to SurveyUSA's latest polling conducted exclusively for The Seattle Times, KING 5 TV, the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public, and Washington State University's Murrow College of Communication.

Among women, Murray leads by 34 points; among men, Murray leads by just 2, a 32-point gender gap. 87% of Democrats vote for Murray; 83% of Republicans vote for Smiley; independents are evenly divided. Liberals favor Murray by an 85-point margin; conservatives favor Smiley by 68 points; moderates break for the Democrat by a 23-point margin. Murray is up by 52 points in urban parts of the state, by 12 in suburban parts; in rural Washington, Murray trails Smiley by 3.

Focusing on the issues:

28% of likely voters in the November general election say abortion will be the the most important issue to them when they cast their ballots this fall; among those voters, Murray leads Smiley by 62 points, 73% to 11%.

The 3 next most important issues break in Smiley's favor:
  • 20% of voters say inflation will matter most to them when voting; those voters back Smiley by a 24-point margin, 54% to 30%.
  • 9% point to border security as the most important issue this fall; among those voters, Smiley leads Murray by 75 percentage points, 83% to 8%.
  • 8% say crime is the most important issue to them; Smiley leads by 20 points, 51% to 31%, among those voters.
6% of voters each cite climate change and guns as the most important issue; Murray leads by 78 points among those most-focused on climate change, and by 25 points among those most focused on guns.
 
About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 825 Washington State adults online 07/06/22 through 07/10/22, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 731 were identified as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 596 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November election for United States Senate and were asked the questions which follow. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of Washington?
825 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikely November November Voting IssueParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / LikelyCertainAbortionBorder SClimate CrimeGunsInflatioRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralW WAE WAMetro Se
Yes89%91%87%78%88%96%98%82%97%91%**87%82%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%94%93%86%98%93%89%91%87%95%89%89%97%98%82%92%84%88%94%83%91%92%94%79%84%91%89%86%92%89%
No10%8%11%19%11%3%2%15%2%7%**11%18%--------5%6%12%2%4%9%7%13%4%9%9%3%1%17%6%13%11%5%14%8%7%5%18%14%8%8%11%6%11%
Not Sure2%1%2%3%1%2%0%2%1%2%**2%0%--------2%1%1%0%2%1%2%0%2%1%1%0%1%1%2%3%1%1%2%1%2%1%3%1%1%3%3%2%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%50%50%32%24%26%19%56%44%69%3%11%18%19%63%28%9%6%8%6%20%23%36%30%7%17%37%18%11%25%37%28%30%46%28%71%29%36%35%32%38%30%63%37%25%52%24%32%21%47%
 
2The state of Washington will hold a general election for United States Senate and for other contests this November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Would you say you are ... ?
731 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikely November November Voting IssueParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / LikelyCertainAbortionBorder SClimate CrimeGunsInflatioRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralW WAE WAMetro Se
Certain Not To Vote2%2%1%1%3%1%1%2%1%2%**3%1%0%0%------1%0%2%4%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%1%1%3%1%2%2%
Unlikely To Vote3%4%2%6%3%2%3%4%2%4%**1%4%0%0%------5%1%6%0%1%5%2%1%1%5%2%5%1%2%4%6%4%1%4%5%1%3%5%5%2%6%4%3%3%
Maybe 50% / 50%13%12%14%21%15%11%2%18%7%8%**39%13%0%0%------8%9%15%0%8%19%6%7%6%19%7%5%11%13%13%16%15%9%15%16%6%10%18%12%16%5%11%17%12%
Likely To Vote19%21%17%27%20%17%8%24%13%19%**12%20%100%0%24%13%40%30%14%24%19%18%18%7%22%24%15%15%17%24%15%22%16%20%18%20%22%14%20%17%19%17%22%21%19%16%19%15%20%
100% Certain To Vote63%60%66%43%60%68%86%51%76%67%**44%60%0%100%76%87%60%70%86%76%66%72%58%89%68%51%73%76%74%51%74%66%71%62%63%56%58%73%58%59%72%68%52%61%60%70%65%62%62%
Not Sure1%1%0%2%0%1%0%1%0%0%**0%2%0%0%------0%0%1%0%0%1%3%0%0%1%2%0%1%0%1%0%1%1%1%0%1%0%2%0%1%0%0%0%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%51%49%28%24%28%21%52%48%70%3%10%16%19%63%28%9%6%8%6%20%25%38%29%8%18%38%18%11%26%38%29%33%51%25%74%27%36%37%30%39%31%67%33%23%53%24%31%22%47%
 
If the November election for United States Senate were today, and these were the only candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
596 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikely November November Voting IssueParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / LikelyCertainAbortionBorder SClimate CrimeGunsInflatioRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralW WAE WAMetro Se
Tiffany Smiley (R)33%40%26%27%30%35%40%28%37%35%**36%27%31%34%11%83%5%51%25%54%83%3%38%74%82%23%7%3%80%23%5%82%2%30%34%43%32%27%31%33%35%37%25%16%36%43%33%40%30%
Patty Murray (D)51%42%60%45%60%49%50%52%49%50%**41%51%42%53%73%8%83%31%50%30%3%87%38%19%9%46%88%92%12%46%90%4%84%48%52%38%49%60%49%52%51%50%53%68%48%40%49%45%54%
Undecided16%18%14%29%10%16%10%19%14%15%**23%22%27%13%16%10%12%18%25%17%13%11%24%7%8%31%5%5%8%31%5%15%14%22%14%18%19%13%20%16%14%13%22%16%16%17%19%15%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%24%23%29%24%47%53%75%2%7%16%23%77%28%9%6%8%6%20%26%42%27%9%20%34%19%12%29%34%31%36%54%26%74%26%35%39%29%37%34%69%31%23%51%25%31%21%48%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.