| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26414 |
| 4 Months Until Washington State Ballots Counted, Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray 18 Points Atop GOP Challenger Tiffany Smiley:
In an election today for United States Senator from Washington State, incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray defeats Republican Tiffany Smiley 51% to 33%, according to SurveyUSA's latest polling conducted exclusively for The Seattle Times, KING 5 TV, the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public, and Washington State University's Murrow College of Communication. Among women, Murray leads by 34 points; among men, Murray leads by just 2, a 32-point gender gap. 87% of Democrats vote for Murray; 83% of Republicans vote for Smiley; independents are evenly divided. Liberals favor Murray by an 85-point margin; conservatives favor Smiley by 68 points; moderates break for the Democrat by a 23-point margin. Murray is up by 52 points in urban parts of the state, by 12 in suburban parts; in rural Washington, Murray trails Smiley by 3. Focusing on the issues: 28% of likely voters in the November general election say abortion will be the the most important issue to them when they cast their ballots this fall; among those voters, Murray leads Smiley by 62 points, 73% to 11%. The 3 next most important issues break in Smiley's favor:
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| About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 825 Washington State adults online 07/06/22 through 07/10/22, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 731 were identified as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 596 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November election for United States Senate and were asked the questions which follow. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of Washington? |
| 825 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Likely November | November Voting Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 Vote | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Likely | Certain | Abortion | Border S | Climate | Crime | Guns | Inflatio | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Yes | 89% | 91% | 87% | 78% | 88% | 96% | 98% | 82% | 97% | 91% | ** | 87% | 82% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 94% | 93% | 86% | 98% | 93% | 89% | 91% | 87% | 95% | 89% | 89% | 97% | 98% | 82% | 92% | 84% | 88% | 94% | 83% | 91% | 92% | 94% | 79% | 84% | 91% | 89% | 86% | 92% | 89% |
| No | 10% | 8% | 11% | 19% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 15% | 2% | 7% | ** | 11% | 18% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 5% | 6% | 12% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 13% | 4% | 9% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 17% | 6% | 13% | 11% | 5% | 14% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 18% | 14% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 6% | 11% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 2% | ** | 2% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 50% | 50% | 32% | 24% | 26% | 19% | 56% | 44% | 69% | 3% | 11% | 18% | 19% | 63% | 28% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 20% | 23% | 36% | 30% | 7% | 17% | 37% | 18% | 11% | 25% | 37% | 28% | 30% | 46% | 28% | 71% | 29% | 36% | 35% | 32% | 38% | 30% | 63% | 37% | 25% | 52% | 24% | 32% | 21% | 47% |
| 2 | The state of Washington will hold a general election for United States Senate and for other contests this November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Would you say you are ... ? |
| 731 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Likely November | November Voting Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 Vote | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Likely | Certain | Abortion | Border S | Climate | Crime | Guns | Inflatio | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Certain Not To Vote | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | ** | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Unlikely To Vote | 3% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | ** | 1% | 4% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 5% | 1% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Maybe 50% / 50% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 21% | 15% | 11% | 2% | 18% | 7% | 8% | ** | 39% | 13% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8% | 9% | 15% | 0% | 8% | 19% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 19% | 7% | 5% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 9% | 15% | 16% | 6% | 10% | 18% | 12% | 16% | 5% | 11% | 17% | 12% |
| Likely To Vote | 19% | 21% | 17% | 27% | 20% | 17% | 8% | 24% | 13% | 19% | ** | 12% | 20% | 100% | 0% | 24% | 13% | 40% | 30% | 14% | 24% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 7% | 22% | 24% | 15% | 15% | 17% | 24% | 15% | 22% | 16% | 20% | 18% | 20% | 22% | 14% | 20% | 17% | 19% | 17% | 22% | 21% | 19% | 16% | 19% | 15% | 20% |
| 100% Certain To Vote | 63% | 60% | 66% | 43% | 60% | 68% | 86% | 51% | 76% | 67% | ** | 44% | 60% | 0% | 100% | 76% | 87% | 60% | 70% | 86% | 76% | 66% | 72% | 58% | 89% | 68% | 51% | 73% | 76% | 74% | 51% | 74% | 66% | 71% | 62% | 63% | 56% | 58% | 73% | 58% | 59% | 72% | 68% | 52% | 61% | 60% | 70% | 65% | 62% | 62% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | ** | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 21% | 52% | 48% | 70% | 3% | 10% | 16% | 19% | 63% | 28% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 20% | 25% | 38% | 29% | 8% | 18% | 38% | 18% | 11% | 26% | 38% | 29% | 33% | 51% | 25% | 74% | 27% | 36% | 37% | 30% | 39% | 31% | 67% | 33% | 23% | 53% | 24% | 31% | 22% | 47% |
 | If the November election for United States Senate were today, and these were the only candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) |
| 596 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Likely November | November Voting Issue | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 Vote | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Likely | Certain | Abortion | Border S | Climate | Crime | Guns | Inflatio | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Tiffany Smiley (R) | 33% | 40% | 26% | 27% | 30% | 35% | 40% | 28% | 37% | 35% | ** | 36% | 27% | 31% | 34% | 11% | 83% | 5% | 51% | 25% | 54% | 83% | 3% | 38% | 74% | 82% | 23% | 7% | 3% | 80% | 23% | 5% | 82% | 2% | 30% | 34% | 43% | 32% | 27% | 31% | 33% | 35% | 37% | 25% | 16% | 36% | 43% | 33% | 40% | 30% |
| Patty Murray (D) | 51% | 42% | 60% | 45% | 60% | 49% | 50% | 52% | 49% | 50% | ** | 41% | 51% | 42% | 53% | 73% | 8% | 83% | 31% | 50% | 30% | 3% | 87% | 38% | 19% | 9% | 46% | 88% | 92% | 12% | 46% | 90% | 4% | 84% | 48% | 52% | 38% | 49% | 60% | 49% | 52% | 51% | 50% | 53% | 68% | 48% | 40% | 49% | 45% | 54% |
| Undecided | 16% | 18% | 14% | 29% | 10% | 16% | 10% | 19% | 14% | 15% | ** | 23% | 22% | 27% | 13% | 16% | 10% | 12% | 18% | 25% | 17% | 13% | 11% | 24% | 7% | 8% | 31% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 31% | 5% | 15% | 14% | 22% | 14% | 18% | 19% | 13% | 20% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 22% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 15% | 15% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 24% | 23% | 29% | 24% | 47% | 53% | 75% | 2% | 7% | 16% | 23% | 77% | 28% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 20% | 26% | 42% | 27% | 9% | 20% | 34% | 19% | 12% | 29% | 34% | 31% | 36% | 54% | 26% | 74% | 26% | 35% | 39% | 29% | 37% | 34% | 69% | 31% | 23% | 51% | 25% | 31% | 21% | 48% |