Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14474
Central FL Moves to McCain, But Men & Southeast FL Move to Obama, Putting 27 Electoral Votes Into Play, 21 Days Till Voting Begins: In an election for President of the United States in Florida today, 09/29/08, three weeks till early voting begins, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain tie, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV Tampa, WFOR-TV Miami, WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola, and WFTX-TV Cape Coral. McCain gets 48% today, Obama 47%, an outcome within the survey's margin of sampling error. McCain's nominal 1-point advantage may or may not have statistical significance; the contest should be reported as even. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 09/18/08, McCain has lost 11 points among Florida men. McCain had led by 10 among men, now trails by 1. Obama is up in Southeast Florida, which includes Miami and Fort Lauderdale, where Obama had led by 12, but now leads by 22. McCain is up in Central Florida, which includes Orlando, where McCain and Obama had been tied, but McCain now leads by 14. In Southwest Florida, which includes Tampa, McCain had let by 14, now leads by 4. There was important movement among college grads, where McCain had led by 10, now trails by 4; among lower-income voters, where Obama had led by 3, now leads by 10; and among voters older than John McCain, where McCain had led by 24, now leads by 8. SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graphs, a SurveyUSA exclusive, allow you to track the votes of every demographic group.
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 775 Florida adults 09/27/08 and 09/28/08. Interviews were conducted immediately after the first presidential debate, held 09/26/08 in Mississippi. Of the adults, 704 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 599 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Early voting begins 10/20/08. Florida has 27 Electoral College votes. George Bush carried Florida by 5 points in 2004 and by one one-hundredth of a point in 2000.
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?
599 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat< $50K> $50KNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
McCain (R)48%46%50%36%53%49%51%46%50%46%53%49%52%21%50%**83%15%43%84%39%16%46%50%62%41%34%69%34%37%50%47%**36%37%92%******42%52%66%44%55%49%38%
Obama (D)47%47%47%58%43%46%45%49%45%49%45%46%42%79%49%**15%83%45%12%57%77%50%45%34%55%60%27%63%43%49%50%**59%57%8%******52%45%27%43%41%45%60%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%18%30%25%27%48%52%42%14%43%76%10%12%3%42%40%16%32%34%18%54%46%43%29%27%41%57%12%87%65%4%5%8%8%2%3%3%36%64%7%9%30%23%30%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.