| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14673 |
|
Maybe, Just Maybe, A Millimeter of Daylight for Governor Gregoire, With Half of WA State's Votes Already Cast:
In Washington State's fiercely fought re-election match for Governor, between incumbent Democrat Christine Gregoire and Republican challenger Dino Rossi, the contest remains today, as it has been in 8 previous SurveyUSA tracking polls, effectively tied. Today, it's Gregoire 50%, Rossi 48%, within the survey's margin of sampling error, and not statistically different than SurveyUSA data going back to to April. But: The key difference in today's SurveyUSA data is that half of those interviewed tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. 37 of Washington state's 39 counties vote entirely by mail. Of those who have already voted, Gregoire has a 53% to 46% advantage. If true, this means that Rossi must win the other half of Washington state voters, who have not yet voted but who promise SurveyUSA they will vote before the deadline, by more than 53% to 46%. At present, Rossi does lead among the "not yet voted" group, but not by enough in SurveyUSA polling to overcome Gregoire's running head start among the earliest of the early voters.
In the battle for Washington state's 11 electoral votes, Democrat Barack Obama today runs 11 points stronger than John Kerry did in 2004 and 11 points stronger than Al Gore did in 2000. No change in the 2 weeks since SurveyUSA's last poll on the presidential contest. 800 Washington adults were interviewed 10/26/08 and 10/27/08. Of them, 713 were registered to vote. Of them, 630 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote on or before election day. |
 | If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates? |
| 630 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Actual V | Likely V | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Eastern | Metro Se | |
| McCain (R) | 39% | 39% | 40% | 39% | 39% | 39% | 41% | 39% | 40% | 40% | 41% | 39% | 40% | ** | ** | 28% | 82% | 9% | 37% | 80% | 32% | 9% | 37% | 42% | 38% | 41% | 56% | 34% | 28% | 70% | 22% | 50% | 28% | 40% | 39% | 42% | 49% | 34% |
| Obama (D) | 56% | 54% | 57% | 59% | 55% | 56% | 52% | 57% | 54% | 56% | 52% | 56% | 55% | ** | ** | 62% | 15% | 89% | 53% | 16% | 63% | 86% | 59% | 51% | 58% | 53% | 39% | 61% | 67% | 26% | 73% | 45% | 69% | 53% | 57% | 53% | 44% | 61% |
| Other | 3% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | ** | ** | 8% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 3% |
| Undecided | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | ** | ** | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 33% | 25% | 19% | 56% | 44% | 49% | 11% | 40% | 84% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 29% | 39% | 29% | 28% | 41% | 25% | 54% | 46% | 49% | 51% | 36% | 23% | 41% | 37% | 61% | 46% | 50% | 35% | 65% | 26% | 21% | 53% |
 | If you were filling out your ballot for Governor right now, would you vote for (choices rotated) Republican Dino Rossi? Or, Democrat Christine Gregoire? |
| 630 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Already Voted? | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Actual V | Likely V | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Eastern | Metro Se | |
| Rossi (R) | 48% | 49% | 47% | 58% | 48% | 44% | 42% | 52% | 43% | 53% | 40% | 44% | 49% | ** | ** | 32% | 88% | 14% | 53% | 87% | 42% | 18% | 46% | 50% | 46% | 50% | 62% | 43% | 39% | 74% | 33% | 61% | 34% | 46% | 49% | 50% | 56% | 44% |
| Gregoire (D) | 50% | 49% | 52% | 41% | 50% | 54% | 57% | 46% | 56% | 45% | 59% | 55% | 50% | ** | ** | 65% | 12% | 85% | 42% | 12% | 57% | 79% | 53% | 47% | 52% | 48% | 36% | 56% | 59% | 24% | 66% | 38% | 64% | 52% | 50% | 48% | 42% | 54% |
| Undecided | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** | ** | 3% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 33% | 25% | 19% | 56% | 44% | 49% | 11% | 40% | 84% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 29% | 39% | 29% | 28% | 41% | 25% | 54% | 46% | 49% | 51% | 36% | 23% | 41% | 37% | 61% | 46% | 50% | 35% | 65% | 26% | 21% | 53% |