Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #18243
 
24 Hours After Pawlenty Enters 2012 Presidential Contest, He Fails to Carry Home State of Minnesota in Head-to-Head with Obama:

In an election for President in the state of Minnesota today, 05/24/11, the day after Republican Tim Pawlenty officially announced his plan to run for president against Barack Obama in 2012, Pawlenty fails to carry his home state, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis-St. Paul. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Obama keeps Minnesota's electoral votes in the Democratic column, 48% to 43% -- not the vote of confidence Pawlenty may have been hoping for from those who know him. Minnesota has been a key battleground state the last several election cycles. Democrats carried MN by 10 points in 2008, by 3 points in 2004, and by 2 points in 2000. Republicans see MN as a key pick-up if they hope to re-take the White House and Pawlenty has little chance to win the White House if he does not carry his home state.

55% of Minnesotans see Pawlenty as either "very" or "somewhat qualified to be president. But: he has a net favorability rating of Minus 3 --- 35% have a favorable opinion of him, compared to 38% who have a negative opinion. MN Independents chose Obama 5:4 over Pawlenty; MN moderates chose Obama 2:1 over Pawlenty.

For perspective, and to give the Pawlenty campaign some comfort, presidential aspirant Michele Bachmann has a net favorability rating of Minus 28 in her home state of MN. Just 27% say she is qualified to be president. In a head-to-head hypothetical matchup against Obama today, Obama defeats Bachmann 57% to 32%.

Minnesota voters are divided on a possible amendment to the state constitution that would define marriage as being between one man and one women. 51% say they would vote for such an amendment if it were on the ballot, 40% say they would vote against. Cell Phone voters oppose; landline voters support.

Minnesota voters overwhelmingly favor a possible amendment to the state constitution that would require voters to present a photo ID when they show up to vote at an election.

State taxpayers 2:1 oppose reaching into their pockets to pay for a portion of the new Vikings Stadium.

Voters blame everyone for the lack of progress on a state budget. A plurality of voters, 36%, want elected officials to cut spending, followed closely by 31% who want legislators to tax the wealthy. But if there is a shutdown of the state government, Republicans, DFL legislators, and the Governor would all be at fault, voters tell SurveyUSA.

 
This poll contains interviews with "cell phone" voters who do not have home telephones. 600 state of MN adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 05/23/11 and 05/24/11. 26% of the adult respondents use a cellphone as the only, or primary, way they make and receive phone calls. The remaining respondents were interviewed on their landline (home) telephone using the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Of the 600 adults interviewed, 552 were registered voters in Minnesota and were asked the questions that appear.
 
1Minnesota has a five billion dollar budget deficit. Should Minnesota raise taxes on just the wealthiest Minnesotans? Raise taxes on all Minnesotans? Cut spending? Or raise taxes and cut spending?
552 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalNo HSHS GradSome ColCollege <$50K$50K - $$75K - $>$100KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Raise Taxes On Wealthy31%23%39%28%26%34%43%27%38%22%34%17%54%26%14%32%17%37%40%**35%32%28%39%28%26%21%27%39%41%29%
Raise Taxes On All4%4%3%6%1%4%5%3%4%4%3%4%5%3%1%4%3%4%4%**8%4%2%4%3%4%1%4%1%3%6%
Cut Spending36%42%30%36%46%32%26%41%29%43%34%60%12%36%76%32%66%19%19%**32%39%38%32%35%46%40%39%38%31%28%
Both27%28%25%26%25%30%26%26%28%25%27%19%26%34%7%29%14%38%33%**23%22%31%22%30%23%38%27%19%25%36%
Not Sure2%2%2%4%2%1%1%3%1%6%1%1%3%2%1%2%1%1%5%**3%3%1%3%3%1%0%3%4%0%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%29%31%23%17%60%40%26%74%28%26%42%8%88%36%29%30%2%19%30%50%38%29%18%16%56%15%16%14%
 
2Imagine the state has only these two choices. What should the state do? Raise taxes on the wealthiest Minnesotans, with limited spending cuts? Or shut down non-essential government functions?
552 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalNo HSHS GradSome ColCollege <$50K$50K - $$75K - $>$100KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Raise On Wealthy / Limit Cuts54%49%58%59%50%55%52%54%54%63%51%33%78%54%17%59%28%60%78%**55%57%53%59%55%49%47%54%50%55%56%
Shut-down Functions42%48%36%41%48%38%40%44%39%37%44%63%16%44%81%38%67%34%19%**40%41%44%37%41%47%49%42%48%39%39%
Not Sure4%3%6%1%3%7%8%2%8%0%6%5%5%3%3%4%4%6%2%**6%3%4%4%3%4%4%4%2%5%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%29%31%23%17%60%40%26%74%28%26%42%8%88%36%29%30%2%19%30%50%38%29%18%16%56%15%16%14%
 
3Imagine the state has only these two choices. What should the state do? Cut government spending? Or shut down non-essential government functions.
552 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalNo HSHS GradSome ColCollege <$50K$50K - $$75K - $>$100KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Cut Spending70%74%66%82%71%66%52%76%60%82%66%73%61%75%78%70%76%62%73%**63%70%74%68%76%63%75%70%67%71%69%
Shut Down Functions25%22%28%17%27%23%36%23%29%18%27%24%30%22%22%25%22%30%22%**30%27%20%25%20%34%20%25%27%22%26%
Not Sure5%4%6%1%1%10%12%1%11%0%7%3%9%4%0%5%2%8%5%**7%3%5%7%4%3%5%4%6%7%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%29%31%23%17%60%40%26%74%28%26%42%8%88%36%29%30%2%19%30%50%38%29%18%16%56%15%16%14%
 
4If the state government shuts down, who is most responsible? The Governor? Republican legislators? DFL legislators? Or the Governor, Republican and DFL legislators equally?
552 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalNo HSHS GradSome ColCollege <$50K$50K - $$75K - $>$100KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Governor14%18%10%16%13%12%13%14%12%12%14%18%10%14%30%11%20%8%10%**18%11%13%14%14%8%16%13%16%12%14%
Republican Legislators20%23%16%14%15%26%29%14%28%13%22%4%46%14%3%22%7%30%25%**21%15%21%16%23%18%21%21%18%19%18%
DFL Legislators10%11%8%5%13%12%9%9%11%6%11%20%3%7%20%9%17%8%3%**9%9%11%8%10%13%10%10%12%8%9%
All Equally54%47%61%59%58%49%45%59%48%61%52%53%40%63%45%56%53%53%58%**49%60%53%57%51%59%52%54%52%58%55%
Not Sure3%1%5%6%2%0%4%4%2%7%2%5%1%3%2%3%4%1%4%**3%5%2%5%2%2%1%3%2%3%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%29%31%23%17%60%40%26%74%28%26%42%8%88%36%29%30%2%19%30%50%38%29%18%16%56%15%16%14%
 
If an amendment to the Minnesota Constitution were on the ballot, that defines marriage as between one man and one woman, would you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?
552 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalNo HSHS GradSome ColCollege <$50K$50K - $$75K - $>$100KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
For51%57%46%42%51%52%66%46%58%42%54%75%36%44%76%47%80%45%22%**60%47%49%53%49%53%41%47%66%50%54%
Against40%36%42%50%37%40%27%43%34%52%35%20%53%45%14%44%14%44%69%**30%43%43%37%41%38%50%44%25%43%34%
Not Vote8%6%10%8%11%6%4%10%5%6%8%5%7%9%10%7%5%8%8%**8%9%7%8%8%7%8%8%7%4%11%
Not Sure2%1%2%1%1%3%3%1%3%0%2%0%4%2%0%2%1%3%1%**2%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%2%3%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%29%31%23%17%60%40%26%74%28%26%42%8%88%36%29%30%2%19%30%50%38%29%18%16%56%15%16%14%
 
6If an amendment to the Minnesota Constitution were on the ballot, that requires voters to present a photo ID at the polls, would you vote for the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?
552 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalNo HSHS GradSome ColCollege <$50K$50K - $$75K - $>$100KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
For76%77%76%82%78%73%69%80%71%77%76%92%59%76%93%74%90%69%67%**79%78%75%78%73%81%73%76%75%81%77%
Against18%20%17%12%17%24%23%15%23%17%18%6%34%17%6%20%7%26%25%**14%16%21%14%23%13%25%19%19%15%19%
Not Vote4%3%5%6%3%2%6%4%4%6%4%2%5%5%1%4%1%3%8%**7%5%2%6%4%4%1%5%5%4%2%
Not Sure1%0%2%0%1%1%1%1%1%0%1%0%2%1%0%1%1%1%1%**0%1%1%2%0%2%0%1%2%1%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%29%31%23%17%60%40%26%74%28%26%42%8%88%36%29%30%2%19%30%50%38%29%18%16%56%15%16%14%
 
7The Minnesota Vikings and Ramsey County have agreed to build a stadium in Arden Hills. The Vikings would pay 40 percent. county taxpayers would pay 35 percent. Should state taxpayers pay the remaining 25 percent?
552 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalNo HSHS GradSome ColCollege <$50K$50K - $$75K - $>$100KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Yes28%32%24%25%31%35%17%28%27%22%29%21%31%30%23%29%25%33%24%**22%26%31%19%31%33%37%27%23%32%28%
No61%58%63%65%54%57%70%59%62%58%62%61%60%60%63%60%60%61%63%**64%60%59%66%56%58%56%60%63%61%60%
Not Sure12%10%14%10%15%9%13%13%11%20%9%18%9%10%14%11%16%7%13%**14%14%10%15%13%10%7%13%14%8%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%29%31%23%17%60%40%26%74%28%26%42%8%88%36%29%30%2%19%30%50%38%29%18%16%56%15%16%14%
 
If your opinion of Tim Pawlenty is ...
552 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalNo HSHS GradSome ColCollege <$50K$50K - $$75K - $>$100KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Favorable35%41%29%36%40%33%27%38%31%31%36%68%10%30%61%33%61%24%18%**25%40%36%30%33%45%40%34%42%33%34%
Unfavorable38%35%42%29%32%47%53%31%50%24%43%11%71%37%21%41%17%57%44%**39%33%42%37%46%26%42%37%34%43%42%
Neutral24%22%26%30%26%18%19%28%18%41%18%19%17%31%19%24%18%18%36%**32%24%21%29%20%28%15%26%20%21%23%
No Opinion2%1%3%5%2%1%1%3%1%4%2%2%2%3%0%2%3%1%2%**3%3%1%3%1%1%3%2%3%3%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%29%31%23%17%60%40%26%74%28%26%42%8%88%36%29%30%2%19%30%50%38%29%18%16%56%15%16%14%
 
If your opinion of Michele Bachmann is ...
552 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalNo HSHS GradSome ColCollege <$50K$50K - $$75K - $>$100KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Favorable23%26%19%18%25%25%23%22%24%15%25%44%6%20%66%18%48%13%3%**18%22%25%20%24%24%26%22%28%20%21%
Unfavorable51%48%53%48%45%57%59%46%58%49%52%22%79%54%13%56%25%68%66%**42%48%56%45%56%51%53%55%48%46%44%
Neutral23%23%24%28%29%16%16%28%16%30%21%32%12%23%21%23%24%18%27%**34%26%17%29%19%24%18%21%22%26%29%
No Opinion3%2%4%6%2%2%3%4%2%5%2%3%3%4%0%3%3%1%5%**5%4%1%6%1%1%3%2%2%7%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%29%31%23%17%60%40%26%74%28%26%42%8%88%36%29%30%2%19%30%50%38%29%18%16%56%15%16%14%
 
How qualified is Tim Pawlenty to be President of the United States? Very qualified? Somewhat qualified? Not very qualified? Or not at all qualified?
552 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalNo HSHS GradSome ColCollege <$50K$50K - $$75K - $>$100KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Very17%24%11%16%20%19%13%18%16%14%19%34%5%15%46%14%36%11%3%**14%19%19%12%18%28%20%17%21%18%13%
Somewhat38%39%37%39%42%35%32%40%34%44%36%50%21%40%33%38%43%35%35%**41%38%35%40%32%38%40%39%35%39%36%
Not Very21%17%25%22%18%19%28%20%23%17%22%7%34%22%11%22%11%29%26%**20%21%22%21%29%12%17%19%22%24%24%
Not At All20%20%20%15%17%26%27%16%26%13%22%5%38%17%10%21%7%24%29%**23%17%21%22%21%15%19%20%19%18%24%
Not Sure4%1%6%9%3%1%0%6%1%11%1%3%2%5%0%4%2%1%7%**2%5%3%5%1%7%4%5%3%3%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%29%31%23%17%60%40%26%74%28%26%42%8%88%36%29%30%2%19%30%50%38%29%18%16%56%15%16%14%
 
How qualified is Michele Bachmann to be President of the United States?
552 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalNo HSHS GradSome ColCollege <$50K$50K - $$75K - $>$100KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Very8%10%5%9%7%10%4%8%8%5%9%14%1%8%35%5%16%4%1%**4%8%9%8%6%8%7%7%12%8%5%
Somewhat19%20%18%20%19%19%19%19%19%17%20%32%9%17%35%17%34%11%7%**22%19%18%14%22%25%20%20%20%18%17%
Not Very25%24%25%19%33%21%24%26%22%26%24%31%23%22%12%26%26%26%24%**28%26%23%28%23%23%20%24%20%28%27%
Not At All41%41%42%40%35%46%50%37%47%36%43%15%65%45%17%45%18%55%55%**38%38%45%39%46%35%46%43%40%37%42%
Not Sure7%4%10%12%6%3%4%9%4%17%4%7%3%9%1%7%6%3%12%**8%10%5%10%3%9%6%6%8%9%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%29%31%23%17%60%40%26%74%28%26%42%8%88%36%29%30%2%19%30%50%38%29%18%16%56%15%16%14%
 
If there were an election for President of the United States today, and the only two names on the ballot were Barack Obama and Tim Pawlenty... who would you vote for?
552 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalNo HSHS GradSome ColCollege <$50K$50K - $$75K - $>$100KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Obama48%43%52%51%36%54%55%43%54%47%48%9%86%50%16%51%16%64%69%**47%46%48%48%53%39%46%49%42%46%49%
Pawlenty43%49%37%40%51%41%37%45%39%36%45%84%8%38%82%39%78%29%17%**42%46%43%40%37%56%45%41%48%46%42%
Undecided9%7%11%9%13%5%8%11%6%17%7%7%6%12%2%10%5%8%15%**12%8%9%11%10%6%9%9%10%8%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%29%31%23%17%60%40%26%74%28%26%42%8%88%36%29%30%2%19%30%50%38%29%18%16%56%15%16%14%
 
If there were an election for President of the United States today, and the only two names on the ballot were Barack Obama and Michele Bachmann... who would you vote for?
552 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalNo HSHS GradSome ColCollege <$50K$50K - $$75K - $>$100KTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Obama57%53%60%61%47%60%62%54%61%56%57%21%90%60%14%62%25%74%79%**53%56%58%57%63%48%54%58%50%58%57%
Bachmann32%38%27%26%40%33%29%33%32%22%36%67%5%26%82%27%65%18%8%**32%32%33%27%31%43%37%31%39%31%31%
Undecided11%8%13%13%13%6%8%13%7%21%7%12%5%13%4%11%10%8%14%**16%11%9%16%6%9%8%10%10%11%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%29%31%23%17%60%40%26%74%28%26%42%8%88%36%29%30%2%19%30%50%38%29%18%16%56%15%16%14%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.